10 X-Factors That Will Decide Who Reaches the 2015 World Series
Just like that, we're down to four.
Both the American League Championship Series and National League Championship Series will begin this weekend, as the Toronto Blue Jays, Kansas City Royals, Chicago Cubs and New York Mets will vie for the right to appear in the World Series. Over the next few slides, we'll identify 10 X-factors that will determine which teams face off in the Fall Classic.
What is an X-factor? There's really no clear-cut answer to that.
It could be Javier Baez, the talented Chicago Cubs infielder who will play shortstop with Addison Russell sidelined with an injury. It could be Troy Tulowitzki or Lucas Duda, sluggers who need to perform in order to protect hot bats in the middle of the lineup. What about instant replay? We've already seen multiple playoff games affected by call reversals.
Let us know what you think about our selections in the comment section below. Who are we missing? Which players do you think will impact the outcome of each series the most?
Some of the best baseball of the year is played in the championship series. Let's find out which players will have the biggest say in which teams keep their seasons alive.
Javier Baez
1 of 10
The young talent of the Chicago Cubs has been on full display during the postseason. Even when shortstop Addison Russell left Game 3 with a hamstring injury, manager Joe Maddon was able to turn to fellow youngster Javier Baez to fill the void.
Baez was ready to contribute when his number was called. The 22-year-old mashed a huge three-run homer in the second inning of Game 4 of the National League Division Series to put the Cubs in front.
For Baez, that postseason moment capped off a fantastic rebound season. After flashing elite power and shaky discipline in his debut last season, he worked hard in Triple-A to earn a September call-up for the Cubs.
With Russell out for the NLCS, Baez will likely man the shortstop position for the Cubs. While he has the physical tools to play there, Baez isn't the natural, sure-handed defensive whiz that Russell is. As dangerous as Baez is at the plate, the Cubs will need his defense in Russell's absence.
Baez fits right in with the free-swinging, powerful young Cubs core. He can frustrate at times, but he's a game-changer who's capable of coming up with the big play when his team needs it the most.
Marco Estrada
2 of 10
Very quietly, Marco Estrada enjoyed a fantastic 2015 season for the Toronto Blue Jays.
The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA in 181 innings. Estrada pitched as a starter and out of the bullpen for the Blue Jays, finally settling in as a starter as the season progressed. In the second half, he recorded a 2.78 ERA to earn a spot in Toronto's postseason rotation.
Toronto is known for its elite offense, but the addition of David Price improved the rotation as well. Although Price didn't look like himself in the American League Division Series, he and the quick-healing Marcus Stroman give the Blue Jays a reliable one-two punch atop the rotation.
The Blue Jays used Price and Stroman to win Games 4 and 5 of the ALDS, leaving a Game 1 start in the ALCS to Estrada. The 32-year-old pitched well in Game 3, allowing only one run in 6.1 innings with Toronto's backs against the wall.
Estrada is the key to the Toronto rotation. If he can continue to pitch like he has in the second half, the Blue Jays have to like their chances with Price and Stroman waiting in the wings.
Lucas Duda
3 of 10
The New York Mets significantly improved offensively at the trade deadline with the addition of Yoenis Cespedes. However, the Chicago Cubs will have no problem pitching around him in the NLCS, especially if Lucas Duda continues to struggle.
Duda has established himself as a formidable left-handed slugger over the last two seasons. In 2014, he mashed 30 homers and drove in 92 runs. He followed that breakout season with a 27-homer campaign in 2015.
The Los Angeles Dodgers limited Duda's production in the NLDS, though. He was just 2-for-20 in five games, striking out 11 times and walking only twice. The 29-year-old has always been susceptible to the strikeout, but those numbers are worrying for Mets fans.
Daniel Murphy picked up Duda's slack with a tremendous series, but it's hard to see the Mets reaching the World Series without some sort of production from one of their most important offensive pieces.
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Ryan Madson
4 of 10
By now, most baseball fans are aware of the dominant arms the Kansas City Royals can trot out in the late innings. Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera made names for themselves with fantastic displays last October.
But as good as the Kansas City bullpen is, it was dealt a tough blow just before the playoffs. Closer Greg Holland, who has saved 125 games over the last three seasons, underwent Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ligament in his elbow.
Herrera and Davis moved into eighth and ninth inning roles, respectively, but Holland's absence still left a void in the middle of the bullpen. However, Ryan Madson proved during the regular season that he was a suitable candidate for high-leverage situations.
Before this season, Madson hadn't pitched in a major league game since 2011. The right-hander posted a 2.13 ERA in 68 games for the Royals in 2015 but allowed six hits and three earned runs in three innings in the ALDS.
Kansas City's bullpen is still one of the top weapons left in the postseason. Davis and Herrera are as good as it gets, but Madson has to get them the ball first. His ability to do so will be a determining factor if the Royals are to return to the World Series.
Matt Harvey
5 of 10
The New York Mets watched as their young starting pitching shined in the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey all pitched well in their postseason debuts.
Harvey, who will start Game 1 of the NLCS, allowed just two earned runs in five innings in one start against the Dodgers. The Mets won that game big, but the love affair between the fanbase and its biggest star isn't what it once was.
Coming back from Tommy John, Harvey recorded a 2.53 ERA this season. Down the stretch, the Mets, Harvey and agent Scott Boras went back and forth on a potential innings limit for the talented right-hander. As the Mets were trying to hold onto a lead in the NL East, Harvey was thinking about the future of his career.
It's hard to blame Harvey for looking past 2015. Limiting his innings worked out in the long run, but the time has come for him to reclaim his spot atop the Mets rotation.
Instant Replay
6 of 10
Instant replay has become a huge part of baseball since its inclusion in the sport, and there have been several notable cases of it directly affecting the game during the postseason.
Here are just a few of those instances:
- Chase Utley's slide in Game 2 of the NLDS between the Dodgers and Mets
- Russell Martin's throw that deflected off a bat, which allowed Rougned Odor to score in Game 5 of the ALDS between the Rangers and Blue Jays
- Terrance Gore's foot coming off the bag in Game 4 of the ALDS between the Astros and Royals
In the cases of Utley and Gore, replay decisions contradicted the way baseball has been played for decades. Never before have players had to worry about the way they break up double plays or being caught off the bag for a split second on a slide attempt.
If the divisional round is any indication, we're not done with instant-replay controversies in this postseason. Don't be surprised to see the result of a championship series game come down to an umpire's interpretation of a replay.
Cubs' Rotation Depth
7 of 10
There's no doubt that Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester make up one of the most formidable one-two punches in baseball. In a seven-game series, the two pitchers could potentially throw in four of those seven contests.
But in those other three games, the Cubs don't have the most convincing of options. Whether it's Kyle Hendricks, Jason Hammel or potentially Dan Haren, it'll be difficult for Chicago to advance to the World Series without better performances in the NLCS.
Hendricks, who started Game 2 of the NLDS, allowed three earned runs in just 4.2 innings and failed to pitch deep into a game in which he had a five-run lead. Hammel struggled too, giving up two earned runs in the first inning of Game 4 and lasting just three innings.
In those starts, manager Joe Maddon was forced to go to his bullpen much earlier than he normal.
"That problem becomes more acute now that the Cubs have advanced to the National League Championship Series," said Steve Rosenbloom of the Chicago Tribune. "After the Cubs struggled to find enough starting pitching for the best-of-five NL Division Series, they’re looking at best-of-seven from here on."
Maddon was creative enough to mix and match his bullpen in Games 2 and 4, but that strategy could come back to haunt the Cubs later in October. There's plenty to like about Maddon's squad, but a longer series will test the depth of his rotation even more.
Roberto Osuna
8 of 10
In most cases, handing the ball to a 20-year-old to close a playoff game isn't an ideal situation.
Just don't tell the Toronto Blue Jays that. Roberto Osuna is perfect in his four postseason appearances in 2015, allowing zero baserunners while striking out six. Manager John Gibbons showed just how much the Blue Jays think of Osuna in Game 5 of the ALDS when he trusted his closer enough to get a five-out save.
For those who have watched Osuna pitch this season, that type of production is nothing new. The right-hander posted a 2.58 ERA in nearly 70 innings during his rookie season. He also struck out over 35 percent of the batters he faced and was 20-for-23 in save opportunities.
Osuna has proved he's one of the most reliable relief options left in the postseason. Still, he's just 20. He's a rookie, an exceptionally gifted one, but a rookie nonetheless.
Although he's done nothing to inspire any less confidence, the ALCS will continue to test Osuna's age and inexperience. With the unavailability of Brett Cecil and possibly Aaron Loup, the Jays can't afford for Osuna to give anything less than he has so far in the postseason.
Johnny Cueto
9 of 10
Which Johnny Cueto will show up in the ALCS?
Will it be the dominant ace we saw in Game 5 of the ALDS who allowed two earned runs and struck out eight batters in eight innings? Or will we get the inconsistent enigma who posted a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts with the Kansas City Royals?
For Kansas City, Cueto's performance will be a determining factor in whether or not the team returns to the World Series. Royals starters ranked 22nd in starters ERA this season, which was the worst mark of any playoff team.
That weakness is why Kansas City acquired Cueto in the first place. He hasn't been that reliable ace since jumping to the American League, but Game 5 proved what the right-hander is capable of when he's feeling right.
"There's no doubt that I knew there was some talk out there that what was wrong with Johnny Cueto," Cueto told David Brown of CBS Sports through an interpreter. "But today was the game that Johnny Cueto was going to show everybody what he's all about in big games. And that's what Johnny Cueto did."
If Cueto can build off his Game 5 performance, the Royals will be an even tougher out. But if he returns to his inconsistent ways, Kansas City may not have the starting pitching necessary to get past the Toronto Blue Jays.
Troy Tulowitzki
10 of 10
The Toronto Blue Jays were down 2-0 and clinging to a lead in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Texas Rangers when Troy Tulowitzki decided to finally make his presence known.
Tulowitzki's first hit of the series was a long three-run homer to give Toronto some breathing room in a must-win game. The 31-year-old battled through two frustrating games to come up with a huge hit in a crucial game.
"I felt like the first game I swung the bat well, just no results," Tulowitzki told Gregor Chisholm and T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. "It's only a matter of two games, so you just stick with it. You know it will come around, and just keep on battling. I think that's what I've been doing all year, and it paid off tonight."
While that homer helped the Blue Jays win Game 3, it remains Tulowitzki's only hit of the postseason. He's struck out seven times and has reached base only three times in 23 plate appearances. Tulowitzki is among the game's best when he's hot, but a late-season shoulder injury seems to be affecting him into October.
The Rangers pitched around Edwin Encarnacion to attack Tulowitzki, walking the slugger eight times (three intentional) during the series. Toronto is loaded with offensive talent, but an unproductive Tulowitzki gives pitchers an opportunity to work through the middle of the lineup.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Oct. 16.
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