Everything You Need to Know About the Indiana Pacers' 2015-16 NBA Season
The 2015-16 Indiana Pacers bear little resemblance to the squad that limped to the 2014-15 finish line.
For one, they have a healthy Paul George this time around. The two-time All-Star missed all but six games last season to a broken leg, but he's back at full strength now.
Yet, getting their best player back might not be the most dramatic thing that happened to the Pacers this summer. They reshaped their entire philosophy, moving from a team that dominated with defense to one that ideally will overwhelm with offense.
It's a risky ploy to say the least, considering the old approach led to consecutive Eastern Conference Finals berths in 2013 and 2014. But it could be a gamble worth taking if Indy's numerous offseason changes better position it to play in today's pace-and-space NBA.
Key Additions/Subtractions
- Additions: Monta Ellis (free agent), Myles Turner (draft), Jordan Hill (free agent), Chase Budinger (trade), Joseph Young (draft), Glenn Robinson III (free agent), Rakeem Christmas (trade), Toney Douglas (free agent)
- Subtractions: David West (free agent), Roy Hibbert (trade), C.J. Watson (free agent), Luis Scola (free agent), Donald Sloan (free agent), Chris Copeland (free agent), Damjan Rudez (trade)
The Pacers said they would get smaller, faster and more explosive at the offensive end; then, they went out and did it.
They're moving on without David West and Roy Hibbert, anchors of the elite defenses that powered them to the East's championship round. They're embracing the likes of Monta Ellis and Jordan Hill, who averaged a combined 30.9 points per game last season. Their new prospects include stretch center Myles Tuner (the No. 11 pick) and scoring guard Joseph Young (No. 43).
Indiana has legitimate firepower throughout the roster and is positioned to snap its three-year streak of fielding a bottom-half offense. But defensive regression feels just as likely. The degree of those two changes will determine whether this new philosophy helps or hurts the franchise.
Storylines to Watch
The Pacers have to be careful with George. He essentially had last season wiped out by a gruesome leg injury, and he'll enter this one at a different position and with a slew of new faces around him. For virtually any player in this position, expectations should be tempered.
But George isn't any player; he's the Pacers' best—by far. Last season's disaster derailed a two-year run where he earned both All-NBA and All-Defensive honors. He still views himself as an MVP candidate, and the Pacers should hold him in the same regard. No one means more to their success.
"While there is depth throughout the roster to cover any position, there is no backup for the superstar role PG has to play for the Pacers to succeed as a playoff contender," Indy Cornrows' Tom Lewis wrote. "If PG can't stay healthy or isn't all in to lead the team's transition, the Pacers will be in for another long season."
Head coach Frank Vogel enters this season with just as much pressure on his shoulders. His resume is impressive: 205 wins against 144 losses over four-plus years. But the majority of those triumphs originated on the defensive end.
| 2011-12 | 42-24 | 103.5 | T-8th | 100.4 | 10th |
| 2012-13 | 49-32 | 101.6 | 19th | 96.6 | 1st |
| 2013-14 | 56-26 | 101.5 | 22nd | 96.7 | 1st |
| 2014-15 | 38-44 | 100.8 | T-23rd | 100.9 | 8th |
After successfully building an impenetrable object, Vogel now needs to turn his team into an unstoppable force. And get George on board with his move to power forward. And win with players who have struggled to do so elsewhere (both Ellis and Jordan Hill have enjoyed just one playoff series victory each). And help Turner and Young make a smooth transition, since both are likely to fill meaningful roles.
If George and Vogel can each hold up his end of the bargain, this season could get interesting for Indiana.
X-Factor: Monta Ellis
The Pacers look smaller and more athletic than last season's bunch, but Ellis is the only addition who qualifies as an established (albeit not entirely efficient) scorer. The ball can stick to his hands, and his three-point shot is erratic. He's susceptible to tunnel vision on his drives, and he can disappear if he spends too much time off the ball.
But Indy needs a second scorer to help George, and Ellis has the skills to handle the role.
"When he's on his game...Ellis brings the kind of dangerous weapon that Indy needs to keep the defense from doubling on George," wrote NBA.com's Shaun Powell. "And that raises another point: George is one of the more accommodating scorers in the NBA and shouldn't have any issues playing alongside Ellis."
The question is whether Ellis, who's on his fourth team in five years, will buy into his new role. The Pacers know he'll put up points; he's one of only six players to average at least 18 in each of the last eight seasons. But Indy needs the 30-year-old to mature quickly, trading volume production for efficiency. It might cost him some quantity, but his quality is far more important to this offense.
Making the Leap: Myles Turner
How many truths can three Summer League outings yield? Pacers fans hope there's plenty to trust about Turner's scorching run through the Orlando summer circuit. In total, he averaged 18.7 points on 60.5 percent shooting and 8.3 rebounds in 29 minutes a night. Oh, the 6'11", 240-pound center also tallied 13 blocks and buried two of his three attempts from long range.
The numbers—while impressive—are ultimately meaningless. That's not to say they can't translate to the actual season, but rather that history has provided more than enough warnings to assume that they will.
Yet, they do reflect what makes Turner such an intriguing prospect. You only need one hand to count the NBA bigs who are rim protectors and three-point snipers. With skills for the perimeter and a size-strength combo for the post, Turner has the tools to join that uber-exclusive club.
"Versatility is a big part of my game and what NBA teams are [looking for]," Turner told Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy. "It's very hard to guard a versatile big man that can do a lot and that's definitely what I base my game on and what I'm trying to do."
Best-Case Scenario
George makes his return to the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams, powering the offense as a stretch 4 and silencing opponents' top scorers. Ellis eases the offensive burden on his teammates, and George Hill helps mask his backcourt mate's defensive shortcomings. Turner shoots and swats his way to Rookie of the Year honors, while Young's quick-strike scoring earns him an All-Rookie spot.
The Eastern Conference proves to be wide-open behind the Cleveland Cavaliers, and Indiana's offense is potent enough to snag a top-four seed. The Pacers give their home fans at least one playoff series win to celebrate, possibly two if the brackets break the right way.
Worst-Case Scenario
George takes a beating while defending post players and grows tired of the change when it doesn't improve the win column. Ellis dominates the ball and watches his shooting percentage plummet. George Hill fades out of the offensive picture. Jordan Hill looks overmatched defensively, Ian Mahinmi looks the same at the other end. Turner shoots more like he did at Texas (.455/.274) than in Orlando.
There's too much change for the Pacers to get any traction. The offense tops out at average, while the defense hemorrhages points at a bottom-third rate. Indiana finishes this season a lot like the last one: out of the playoff race and near the back end of the lottery.
Predictions
George should be in for his best statistical season to date. He'll feast on slower power forwards at the offensive end, a feat made easier by the improved spacing around him. He should be a shoo-in for the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams, and he could have a top-five finish in the MVP voting if the Pacers leap up the conference standings.
But it's tough to see that last part happening.
Having Ellis as a second option highlights how little scoring punch the rest of their roster packs. Outside of George, the frontcourt underwhelms on paper, particularly if Turner isn't ready for a major role. The backcourt seems crowded with streaky contributors, unless George Hill maintains the aggressiveness and production he found last season.
Indiana's offense will have more shooting and better flow, but a significant climb might mean only joining the ranks of mediocrity. The defense seems likely headed to that same level, provided it doesn't slip even further. Ultimately, the Pacers should check in right around average—which usually means good enough to claim a playoff spot in the East.
Final Record: 40-42
Division Standing: Fourth in Central
Playoff Berth: Yes
Playoff Finish: Eliminated in First Round
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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