Panthers vs. Seahawks: Full Carolina Game Preview

The Carolina Panthers (4-0) are rested.  They sit undefeated near the top of the division, in a dramatic turnaround from last season, when they didn’t get to four wins until December 7. With an elite pass defense, Carolina has been able to stifle potential comeback opportunities and hold onto lead after lead so far this season.

However, a 4-0 start wasn’t entirely unexpected, considering the level of competition they’ve faced so far this season. The schedule picks up starting now, with a road trip to the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (2-3).

In recent years, the Panthers have played the Seahawks tough but have always come up short. The Panthers and Seahawks have matched up four times since Cam Newton was drafted in 2011, and Seattle has come out on top every time. The three games in Carolina were all one-score affairs, and last year’s showdown in the playoffs ended with the Seahawks sending the Panthers home with a final score of 31-17.

The Panthers have struggled against Seattle’s ferocious defense, with Newton only leading one touchdown drive in the three regular-season matchups. The Panthers added a couple more touchdown drives in the playoffs last season, but at least one was in garbage time when the Seahawks had backed off significantly. 

It’s been a rough matchup for the Panthers in recent memory.

On the other hand, the Seahawks haven’t really looked like themselves to this point in the season. In all three of their losses, they blew fourth-quarter leads. You would expect a team with a terrific defense to clamp down with a lead late, but the Seahawks have allowed 48 points in the fourth quarter and overtime so far this season, as compared to just 50 points in the first three quarters.

Seattle could easily be 5-0 right now, but the team has let games slip through its fingers. That is uncharacteristic of the recent history of the Seahawks.

There’s a feeling that the Seahawks are the best three-loss team and the Panthers are the worst undefeated team to this point; at least, that’s what systems such as Football Outsiders’ DVOA and ESPN’s power rankings indicate. That would explain why Odds Shark reports that Seattle has risen to a seven-point favorite in this contest.

People are judging the teams more on recent history as opposed to just the first five weeks of 2015.

A win would go a long way toward proving "Carolina is for real," whatever that narrative means. It’s far from a must-win game, though—it looks to be the toughest matchup remaining on the schedule thanks to Seattle’s historic success against Carolina and the fact that it’s in Seattle rather than at home.

At a certain point, however, you become what your record says you are. Can the Panthers continue their early-season success and pick up their first win against Seattle since 2007, or will the Seahawks return to the form that has seen them dominate the NFC over the past few seasons? We’ll find out Sunday.

Location: CenturyLink Field, Seattle

Time: 4:05 p.m. ET

TV: Fox, with Sam Rosen and John Lynch on the call

Week 5 Results and Recap

Don Juan Moore/Getty Images

Josh Norman and the defense ruined Jameis Winston's day two weeks ago.

Carolina had last week off thanks to its early bye. The week before, the Panthers stayed undefeated with their biggest win of the season, a 37-23 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cam Newton threw for two touchdowns, and the defense intercepted Jameis Winston four times, with Josh Norman returning one for a touchdown.

The game was played in somewhat sloppy conditions with rain intermittent throughout. That was, in part, responsible for the teams' combined three fumbles and four interceptions. Carolina had a few lucky bounces—such as the ball bouncing straight into Ed Dickson’s hands on a Jonathan Stewart fumble—but was able to capitalize on its good fortune and take control of the contest to get to 4-0.

The defense, in general, stood up. In addition to picking Winston off four times, Carolina shut down Mike Evans entirely, picked up two sacks and generally kept Winston on the move—the Panthers had 25 quarterback pressures, per Pro Football Focus. That’s Panthers football right now—force the opponent into making mistakes and then capitalize.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, had seemed to right their ship, winning two consecutive games after starting the season 0-2. With a 17-point lead entering the fourth quarter, it looked like the game was pretty much over and done with.

However, the Cincinnati Bengals and Andy Dalton fought back ferociously, matching the second-biggest comeback in Bengals history to win in overtime on a Mike Nugent field goal. It is the biggest lead blown by Pete Carroll’s Seahawks and raised renewed questions over Seattle’s ability to finish games and close out opponents when sitting on commanding leads.

NFC South Standings

Team	Record	Pct.	PF	PA	Streak
Atlanta Falcons	5-0	1.000	162	112	W5
Carolina Panthers	4-0	1.000	108	71	W4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-3	.400	110	148	W1
New Orleans Saints	1-4	.200	103	143	L1

It’s just the Panthers' luck that they’re in the only division with two undefeated teams. While Carolina is the only team in the NFC to control its own destiny for home field in the playoffs, thanks to games against both Atlanta and Green Bay on the schedule, the Falcons picked up an extra win thanks to a 25-19 victory over Washington in overtime, giving them a slightly better record, for now.

The Buccaneers picked up a win to stay active in the race as well, beating the Jaguars in a high-scoring 38-31 contest. The Saints, on the other hand, look dead and buried, dropping to 1-4 after losing to Philadelphia 39-17.

Thursday’s matchup between the Falcons and Saints is a major one to watch for Panthers fans. A win by the Saints obviously helps, as it would drop the Falcons below the Panthers in the division race, at least for one game. On the other hand, a win by Atlanta would confirm the Saints as non-factors in the playoff race this year, and every team that is more or less eliminated makes it easier for the Panthers to secure a playoff spot. 

At the very least, it’s an important divisional showdown to watch on Thursday night.

NFC Wild-Card Race

Team	Record	Pct.	Notes
Carolina Panthers	4-0	1.000
Minnesota Vikings	2-2	.500
St. Louis Rams	2-3	.400	Ahead of SEA via head-to-head Ahead of CHI via conference record Ahead of DAL and TB via strength of victory
Dallas Cowboys	2-3	.400	Ahead of PHI via head-to-head Ahead of WAS via divisional record Ahead of CHI via conference record Ahead of TB and SEA via strength of victory
Washington Redskins	2-3	.400	Ahead of PHI via head-to-head Ahead of CHI via conference record Ahead of TB and SEA via strength of victory
Seattle Seahawks	2-3	.400	Ahead of PHI and CHI via conference record Ahead of TB via strength of schedule
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-3	.400	Ahead of PHI and CHI via conference record
Philadelphia Eagles	2-3	.400	Ahead of CHI via conference record
Chicago Bears	2-3	.400
San Francisco 49ers	1-4	.200	Ahead of NO via conference record
New Orleans Saints	1-4	.200
Detroit Lions

The Panthers and Falcons have opened a significant lead over the rest of the NFC. No other second-place team in the conference boasts a winning record, with a massive pileup at 2-3 requiring an involved set of tiebreakers to separate the squads at the moment.

Even if the Panthers were to lose this week, they’d still be in playoff position. That’s not a bad position to be in at this point of the season.

News and Notes

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Luke Kuechly finally looks ready to return.

Luke Kuechly Clears Concussion Protocol

Nothing could be better news for the Panthers than learning that their star linebacker is ready for action.

Luke Kuechly has been out since Week 1, still dealing with the after-effects of a concussion he suffered against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Finally, however, an independent neurologist has cleared him, and he rejoined practice on Tuesday.

A.J. Klein filled in all right during Kuechly’s absence, with a minus-1.6 rating from Pro Football Focus mostly being chalked up to one bad grade against Tampa Bay. Still, there’s no substitute for one of the best middle linebackers in football, and getting him back should give a boost to an already strong defense.

However, don’t expect a full game from Kuechly right off the bat. According to the team’s website, the Panthers plan to keep Kuechly on a limited snap count this week as he works back into full game shape. The idea was for Klein to continue to fill in, but it turns out Klein’s suffering from his own concussion, according to the team’s Twitter. He may not be ready for this week’s game, which would require Kuechly to play more snaps.

Panthers Rate Well Among Fans

Every year, ESPN polls fans on aspects of their sports experience, from the performance on the field to the experience of attending games. The Panthers rated quite well overall this year, coming in as the sixth-best NFL franchise and the 24th-best franchise in the four major North American sports, per ESPN The Magazine.

The Panthers graded out particularly well in the “bang for the buck” category—unlike many NFL franchise these days, you can attend a Panthers game without taking a second mortgage out on your home. The average ticket price is “just” $72.44. 

It’s not just affordability, however—the Panthers graded out well, if not spectacularly, in every question ESPN asked. The lack of major flaws propels the Panthers toward the top of the rankings.

The Panthers don’t have any major negative marks on ESPN’s lists. Only the stadium experience, coming in at 63rd overall, is in the bottom half of franchises. This is despite a major renovation to Bank of America Stadium this offseason. The Panthers were dinged for ownership last season as well, but perhaps Jerry Richardson’s handling of the Greg Hardy situation has won him some supporters among the fanbase.

Stephen Hill Sentenced to Probation

Wide receiver Stephen Hill, who is sitting on the injured reserve list after tearing his ACL back in August, was pulled over for a seat-belt violation back in July. Police found drug paraphernalia in the car at the time, and last week, Hill pleaded guilty to the charge, according to the Charlotte Observer. He was sentenced to a year of probation, drug testing, counseling and 48 hours of community service, after which the charge will be dismissed.

Hill had generated some hype this offseason as a potential factor in the Panthers’ receiving corps, but his ACL injury ended that almost before it started. The offense is minor enough that it’s possible the NFL would not apply any penalty of its own on top of the court’s decision, but remember that Josh Gordon was suspended for a year after violating the NFL substance-abuse policy. 

Either way, it doesn’t seem like Hill has much of a future with the team at this point, but stranger things have happened.

Injuries

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Jerricho Cotchery looks ready to return from his high-ankle sprain.

Thanks to the bye week, the Panthers are dealing with significantly fewer injuries than Seattle is at the moment—it’s amazing what a week off can do for a team’s overall health.

Panthers Injuries

Player	Pos.	Injury	Wed. Practice
Jerricho Cotchery	WR	Ankle	Full
Amini Silatolu	OG	Ankle	Full
Luke Kuechly	LB	Concussion	Full
Richie Brockel	TE	Hamstring	Limited
A.J. Klein	LB	Concussion	Limited
Daryl Williams	OT	Knee	None
Jared Allen	DE	Back	None

• Jerricho Cotchery looks ready to return from the high-ankle sprain he suffered back in Week 2. He will likely be the fourth receiver, behind Philly Brown, Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess, but at least he should be ready to play over Brenton Bersin.
• Amini Silatolu should also return, after missing a few weeks with a high-ankle sprain of his own. He moves back into the primary backup offensive tackle role, should Michael Oher or Mike Remmers go down mid-game.
• As mentioned above, Luke Kuechly is practicing in full, according to the Associated Press’ Steve Reed, and should be ready to play, albeit on a snap count. He missed three games with a concussion.
• Richie Brockel was limited with a hamstring but wasn’t likely to play a major role Sunday anyway. There's no word as to the extent of the injury.
• A.J. Klein enters the concussion protocol just as Luke Kuechly leaves it, per Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer. Apparently, the injury wasn’t noticed until Tuesday, raising questions about the effectiveness of the NFL’s game-day concussion protocols. He has already been cleared for non-contact practice, but he may not be ready for full game action Sunday. It’s possible David Mayo will get some snaps spelling Luke Kuechly, or the team could just let Kuechly play the entire game.
• Daryl Williams is still out with his sprained MCL suffered in Week 1. We’re now on the far edge of when he was supposed to return, but he’s just not quite ready yet.
• Jared Allen currently does not have feeling in his foot because of to a pinched nerve, according to the Black and Blue Review on Twitter. He says he’ll be ready to play against Seattle, but Ron Rivera expressed some doubts there, according to Jones. Kony Ealy and Wes Horton will likely get the start.

Seahawks Injuries

Player	Pos.	Injury	Wed. Practice
Marshawn Lynch	RB	Hamstring	Limited
Kevin Pierre-Louis	LB	Hamstring	Limited
Frank Clark	DE	Hamstring	None
Demarcus Dobbs	DE	Shoulder	None
Jordan Hill	DT	Quadriceps	None
Bobby Wagner	MLB	Pectoral	None
Tye Smith	CB	Hip	None

• Marshawn Lynch has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury suffered against Chicago back in Week 3, but Pete Carroll says that he should be ready to go this week, per the Seattle Times' Bob Condotta. It would not be surprising to see Thomas Rawls get a few extra carries as the Seahawks ease Lynch back into the lineup.
• Kevin Pierre-Lewis was inactive last week with his hamstring injury but returned to practice on a limited basis this week. He’s not likely to see much game action, even if he is fully healthy; he’s mostly a special teams player.
• Frank Clark was a surprise addition to the injury report with a hamstring. He has been rotating in at defensive end behind Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril; his status is one to watch this week.
• Demarcus Dobbs is someone who might step up to take some of Clark’s snaps if he can’t go, but Dobbs is suffering from a shoulder injury of his own, suffered in Week 3 against Chicago. He didn’t practice at all last week, and so far, he hasn’t shown up this week. He has to be considered questionable at best.
• Jordan Hill suffered a strained quad against Cincinnati. Carroll says that it will take two more weeks to heal. Hill had been a key rotational defensive tackle; David King will get more work in his absence.
• Bobby Wagner suffered a sprained pectoral muscle against Cincinnati as well. He is currently day-to-day and likely will be a game-time decision. If he can’t start, K.J. Wright will slide inside, and Nick Moody will come in at outside linebacker.
• Rookie Tye Smith remains sidelined with a hip injury. He has yet to see the field on defense this season. 

Injury reports courtesy of Panthers.com and Seahawks.com.

Key Matchups

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

The pass rush got to Cam Newton early and often last January.

QB Russell Wilson vs. Carolina’s Pass Rush

With Robert Griffin III firmly on the bench and Colin Kaepernick in hot water in San Francisco, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson are the last of the running quarterback revolution of 2011 and 2012 to still be performing well. 

After a somewhat shaky start to the season, Wilson has stepped up his game in recent weeks, posting a quarterback rating of 102.3 over the past month while averaging 235 yards per game. He also picked apart the Panthers in last year’s playoff game, throwing three touchdown passes.

Hidden in the numbers this season, however, is some uncharacteristically poor play. Against Cincinnati, head coach Pete Carroll pointed out a number of missed opportunities for Wilson and the offense, according to Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com:

"

He had a couple of opportunities that we’re kicking ourselves over down the stretch on some third downs, a couple third downs that we could have won. And we just didn’t execute as cleanly as we needed to. Missed a chance at Jimmy [Graham] on a crucial 3rd-and-8, and missed Doug [Baldwin] on one. He just missed a couple of them. He’d been pretty good earlier, and a couple just got away from us.

"

Wilson’s struggles may come from the poor performance of the offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, he has been pressured on 45.6 percent of his dropbacks, most in the NFL. He’s been sacked 22 times, tied for most in the league with the Kansas City Chiefs. 

Wilson is good under pressure, throwing a lot of accurate passes and completing a high percentage with his ability to avoid pressure with his legs, but the sheer number of times he’s seen his line collapse around him has taken its toll. He might be better than the average quarterback under pressure, but blitzing is a way to force Seattle into negative plays.

OT Michael Oher and Mike Remmers vs. DE Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett

Part of last year’s playoff loss to Seattle can be pinned on the performance of Mike Remmers. According to Pro Football Focus, he gave up seven quarterback pressures over the course of the game, mostly to Michael Bennett. 

Left tackle Byron Bell had eight of his own, as Cliff Avril beat him on a regular basis. More than anything else on offense, that failure to keep the edges clean for Cam Newton stifled the Panthers’ chances last January.

Remmers hasn’t been quite as good as he was when he first took over the right tackle spot last season, but he’s been very solid and hasn’t had a game nearly as bad as his matchup with Seattle since.  Michael Oher isn’t particularly good, but he’s represented a significant upgrade over Bell at left tackle. You would think the Panthers would be better prepared for the matchup with Avril, Bennett and Bruce Irvin this year than they were last year.

Still, Avril and Bennett are the top two pass-rushing 4-3 defensive ends in football. They may not have as many sacks as Carlos Dunlap, but they are routinely and constantly in the face of the opposing quarterback, with a combined 47 pressures on the season already, per PFF. 

This is going to be an advantage for the Seahawks, and it’s up to the Panthers to try to minimize the amount of damage Seattle can do. It’s not a matter of winning the battle; it’s about leaving Newton and the offense enough plays where they actually can work from a normal pocket.

TE Greg Olsen vs. LB K.J. Wright

According to Football Outsiders, the Seahawks rank 30th in the league against tight ends, giving up 64 yards per game and a DVOA of 55.6 percent. While the Legion of Boom does an exemplary job of shutting down the top receivers in the passing game, the linebackers and safeties have struggled to match up with players such as  Tyler Eifert and Eric Ebron in recent weeks.

K.J. Wright is the exception to the rule, matching up well with tight ends and running backs when asked. However, when tight ends have matched up against Bobby Wagner, they’ve been able to perform well. You would think, then, that the Seahawks would try to scheme more so Wright is the one in coverage against the dangerous Greg Olsen.

However, they may not have that opportunity. Wagner has a pectoral injury and looks like he’ll be a game-time decision, which would leave Wright as the middle linebacker, according to Gregg Bell of the News Tribune. That would allow Olsen to match up with a backup such as Nick Moody or with Kam Chancellor, who has allowed 16 receptions on 18 targets since coming back from his holdout, per PFF.

X-Factors

Bob Leverone/Associated Press/Associated Press

Shaq Thompson faces his toughest test yet against the defending NFC Champs.

Carolina X-Factor: OLB Shaq Thompson

One of the more puzzling aspects of Seattle’s early-season struggles has been the lack of production out of tight end Jimmy Graham, who was acquired from the Saints in a blockbuster trade this offseason. So far, though he leads the team in targets, he’s only caught 21 passes for 204 yards, which is hardly the game-altering force many thought the Seahawks would get. 

They also haven’t gotten much pass-catching out of their running backs, with Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls combining for just 10 receptions.

Last season, running backs and tight ends were a more significant factor in the passing offense, and you don’t make a trade for Graham without wanting to include him more.

It might be up to Thompson to continue Seattle’s struggles in that area. He has had a solid rookie season so far, keeping plays in front of him and contesting receivers out of the backfield well. Russell Wilson’s ability to extend plays will be Thompson's greatest challenge yet, though—he has to be focused and diligent in coverage and not abandon his man to help stop Wilson before he crosses the line of scrimmage. If he can do that, he can take away a significant part of Seattle’s offensive game plan.

Seattle X-Factor: FS Earl Thomas

Thomas hasn’t had the sort of All-Pro season he’s been known for, but he’s still a dangerous talent, moving up to make key tackles in the run game and forcing turnovers at crucial moments. His interception against Andy Dalton last week was the first turnover of the year for the Legion of Boom, as surprising as that stat is.

The Panthers have also struggled a bit against free safeties so far this season. Chris Conte allowed one reception for minus-three yards in Week 4 while making a couple of strong stops behind the offensive line, per PFF. Rahim Moore helped limit Greg Olsen back in Week 2, and Sergio Brown had a strong game in the season opener. 

The Panthers don’t really have the depth at receiver to challenge a safety down the middle of the field at this point, even with burners such as Ted Ginn and Philly Brown on the roster. Thomas and the secondary could clamp down and make life difficult for an already subpar Panthers passing game.

Prediction: Seahawks 28, Panthers 17

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks should come out on top of this one.

This is not likely to be a high-scoring game. When you have two of the better defenses in the NFL against a pair of offenses that haven’t found their rhythm yet, you’re likely to get a defensive struggle and what could be the lowest-scoring game of the week.

This is actually one of the most exciting possible matchups in the NFL—the Panthers are attempting to prove themselves as one of the top teams in the league, while the struggling Seahawks try to right the ship. If this game was in Carolina, it would be toss-up at this point.

Sadly, the game is in Seattle, and that’s not great for the Panthers. They have never won a game in Seattle in four tries, and the Seahawks have only lost two of their last 30 home games—a loss to Dallas in Week 6 last season and a loss to Arizona in Week 16 of 2013. CenturyLink is one of the toughest places in football to play; the stadium amplifies an already intense crowd and makes play-calling a nightmare.

It’s hardest on the offensive tackles. Far out from the center and quarterback, and unable to get as good of a visual cue as the receivers split out wide, they are often either a fraction of a second late getting off the ball or in danger of committing false starts. Combine that with two of the top 4-3 ends in football in Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett for Seattle, and you have a potential recipe for disaster.

The Panthers are better than the team that ended last season in defeat in Seattle. The Seahawks do not appear to be as good as the team that went to the Super Bowl last year. The gap between the two teams has seemingly narrowed.

Still, Cam Newton may well still have nightmares about running for his life in last year’s playoffs, with Mike Remmers and Byron Bell offering little to no resistance on the outside. For every positive step the Panthers have made, especially on defense, I can’t pick them unless I’m sure they can keep the pocket clean in a hostile environment. 

Newton can only pull his Houdini act so many times.

The game should be closer than it was last season, without a garbage-time score to make it seem more competitive than it was. I’m just not quite ready to put the Panthers over the Seahawks on the road, as Carolina suffers its first loss of the season.

Prediction: Seahawks 28, Panthers 17

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.