Patriots vs. Colts: Full Indianapolis Game Preview
For all the success that the Indianapolis Colts have had since drafting Andrew Luck No. 1 overall, there has been one obstacle too great to overcome in their quest for the Super Bowl: the New England Patriots.
With the battles between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning becoming something of legend before the latter departed for Denver, the Patriots and Brady have been the bane of Indianapolis in the postseason each of the past two years in embarrassing fashion.
Now, with the Colts still trying to find their footing this season and Luck’s health still in question, the Patriots come to town and look to add another humiliating defeat to the rivalry's history. With the specter of Deflategate hanging over the game as well, it is hard to imagine Brady and his teammates not being fired up for the contest Sunday night.
The Colts have come a long way since tough losses to the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills in the opening two weeks of the year, but they are heavy underdogs against New England and will need to play the perfect game or hope the Patriots slip up in order to pull off the upset.
Viewing Info
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Date: Sunday, Oct. 17
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Week 5 Results and Recap
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Team | Record |
Indianapolis Colts | 3-2 |
1-3 | |
1-4 | |
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Despite still failing to find the form that made them the preseason favorites to take home another AFC South crown and make a deep run in the playoffs, the Indianapolis Colts have claimed three straight wins against division opponents and now sit comfortably in first in the division.
Coming off a pair of tight wins over the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars, the Colts completed the trifecta with a 27-20 victory against the Houston Texans on Thursday night.
Led by Matt Hasselbeck for his second consecutive start, the Colts looked the best they have on offensive this season with T.Y. Hilton, Andre Johnson and Frank Gore all putting up big numbers against a Houston defense that has disappointed all season.
But the pass defense once again proved a weakness, with DeAndre Hopkins finishing with 149 yards and Jaelen Strong bringing in his first two career catches—both for touchdowns.
With Brady and the Patriots up next, the Thursday night performance against Brian Hoyer—who threw for 312 yards and a pair of touchdowns—was disheartening and could be the preamble for a much worse game against New England.
News and Notes
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Can the Colts exorcise their demons against New England?
It has been well-documented how the Indianapolis Colts can’t get past the New England Patriots in the AFC playoffs. Despite promising seasons each of the last two years, the Colts have been dispatched by Bill Belichick in the playoffs both times, leaving some to wonder if Indy is capable of beating New England.
Whether it is mental or the fact that the Patriots have just been the better team both times, the Colts' embarrassing losses have to weigh on the players’ minds this week leading up to the big Sunday night matchup.
As the heavy underdogs, not many expect the Colts to come out on the winning end, but a victory would go a long way toward shifting the balance of power in the AFC for good.
Andrew Luck is practicing, but will he play?
After an uneven start to the season, it appears the Colts have finally started to find some sort of rhythm on offense in recent weeks. Oddly enough, they have done so without starting quarterback and franchise player Andrew Luck under center.
Matt Hasselbeck has been stellar as the interim starter, but Luck’s return is anticipated by Colts fans, and getting him back this week against the Patriots could be a huge boost to morale and the team’s chances.
With more than a week between games, Luck has had plenty of time to practice and heal, but his status is still up in the air. If he doesn’t play, the Colts have a capable backup in Hasselbeck to rely on, but if Luck does play, it could change the outlook of the game.
Colts need a pass rush and fast
While the cornerbacks have been the targets of much derision for their poor start to the season, the pass rush has also been a huge problem plaguing the defense. Tied for 29th in the league with just six sacks this year, Indianapolis hasn’t been able to get serious pressure on an opposing signal-caller and has paid for it so far.
Against the Patriots, Indianapolis will need to pressure Brady—who has been sacked 11 times this year, which is about middle of the pack for quarterbacks—if they want to have any hope of stopping him. Whether it's in the form of Henry Anderson and the defensive line or more snaps for Robert Mathis, the Colts need to figure out something to keep Brady from having too much time in the pocket.
Latest Injury News
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Player | Injury | Status |
Trent Cole | Back | Limited |
Jerrell Freeman | Groin | DNP |
Nate Irving | Knee | Limited |
Andre Johnson | Rest | DNP |
Andrew Luck | Shoulder | Limited |
Robert Mathis | Rest | DNP |
Tyler Varga | Concussion | DNP |
Bjoern Werner | Hamstring | Full Practice |
Having dealt with injury after injury at the cornerback position this season, the Colts finally catch a break without having a cornerback on the list for the first time. A fully healthy Vontae Davis should help as Indianapolis will finally be able to use its top rotation at corner.
Andrew Luck is still limited in practice after missing each of the last two games with a shoulder injury, but with so much time between games, it is hard to picture him not starting. If he doesn’t play, it isn’t the worst thing in the world as Matt Hasselbeck has played well in relief, but the Colts will still like to see their star quarterback return.
The biggest worries this week come at the linebacker position, with starters Trent Cole and Jerrell Freeman as well as backup Nate Irving missing at least part of practice on Wednesday.
With the abysmal pass rush the team has put forward so far this season along with the offense the Patriots are coming to town with this week, any injury could be detrimental to the Colts' chances, but losing three members of the two-deep at linebacker could be a big blow.
For the Patriots, starting left tackle Nate Solder has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a torn right biceps, according to Jim McBride of the Boston Globe. That should help Indy with its pass rush but shouldn’t make a massive difference in the big picture.
Injury report via Colts.com.
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Key Matchups
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Tom Brady vs. Everyone
Here’s Tom Brady’s stat line through four games (and wins) so far this year: 1,387 yards passing, 11 touchdowns, 121.5 rating, no interceptions and a 72.5 completion percentage. If you were to push those numbers to his projected five-game totals and even the playing field in that regard, he would lead the league in yards and touchdowns per game and gave the best touchdown-to-interception ratio among full-time starters.
On the other hand, the Colts rank No. 28 in passing yards allowed per game and No. 17 in passing touchdowns allowed. The cornerbacks and linebackers in coverage are going to be asked to slow down Brady and even if the safety play has taken huge steps forward in the past couple of weeks, that result doesn’t seem likely.
Colts Defensive Line vs. Patriots Running Game
Usually this would be a good time to highlight a matchup on the other side of the ball for the Colts to focus on, but against the New England Patriots offense, Indianapolis has struggled so mightily that we need to talk about the defense again.
In the two playoff losses to the Pats in 2013 and 2014, it wasn’t Brady who tore apart the Colts defense but rather New England’s starting running back LeGarrette Blount, who has a combined seven touchdowns in those two games. He hasn’t played great this season, but if history is any indication, Indianapolis could have its hands full with Blount and Dion Lewis.
The defensive line has been surprisingly decent for the Colts this year, and the run defense, while ranked No. 19 in yards per game allowed, is still an improvement compared to the abysmal pass defense. But Blount has had a field day each of the last two times he has faced Indianapolis, and something needs to change if the Colts are going to pull off the upset.
Matchup X-Factor
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CB Vontae Davis
It might be a tough pill to swallow as a coach, but Rob Gronkowski is going to get his. It is almost inevitable that no matter what you do, the tight end is going to have a big game every single week.
In that vein, if the Colts go in assuming that Gronkowski is going to have a big game, it should be one of their top goals to shut down the Patriots' other top receiving threat, Julian Edelman.
With 399 yards, 34 catches and three touchdowns, Edelman has been Brady’s top target this year—he has been targeted 47 times to Gronkowski’s 33—and is one of the reasons for the Patriots' success. If the Colts are going to stop the Pats, it starts with stopping Edelman.
That task will likely fall to Vontae Davis, who wasn’t fully healthy last week against the Texans, and the Colts paid for it with DeAndre Hopkins constantly getting separation from Greg Toler. With Davis back and healthy, the Colts will match him up with the top receiving threat, as they did in weeks 1 and 2.
Davis is more than capable of shutting down Edelman if he is at 100 percent, and his performance against the Patriots' top receiver could be the key for the Colts.
Prediction: Patriots 42, Colts 21
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A lot has gone right for the Indianapolis Colts in the past few weeks. Even without Andrew Luck, the team has seemingly turned its fortunes around with three straight wins against AFC South opponents to move to 3-2 and the top of the division.
But, although Luck’s status improves each and every week, the team’s opponent for Week 6 isn’t Houston, Jacksonville or Tennessee. Those teams all have certain things going for them, but they aren’t nearly in the same league as the New England Patriots.
Tom Brady is at the peak of his powers with the added motivation of taking it to the league after Deflategate. With one of the worst cornerback units in the league, the Colts have little chance of slowing down the unstoppable train that is Brady.
Despite Brady’s prolific numbers, though, it is the running game that should really scare Indianapolis this Sunday. Even if LeGarrette Blount hasn’t been great this year, he still averaged 157 yards and 3.5 touchdowns against the Colts in back-to-back playoff wins.
New England looks to be on tear this season after a Super Bowl last year, and the Colts just have the misfortune of trying to pull the unlikeliest of upsets.
Prediction: Patriots 42, Colts 21
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