ALCS 2015: Blue Jays vs. Royals Position-by-Position Breakdown, Predictions
The American League Championship Series (ALCS) field is officially set as the Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals both came away victorious in their respective division series matchups.
The Blue Jays rallied after falling behind 2-0 in their series with the Texas Rangers, and capped things off by winning one of the strangest elimination games you'll ever see in front of a raucous home crowd in Toronto.
Meanwhile, the Royals traded wins with the upstart Houston Astros through the first four games of their series before coming away with a convincing 7-2 victory in Game 5 behind eight strong innings from Johnny Cueto.
The ALCS will begin Friday in Kansas City, with the first pitch of Game 1 scheduled for 8:07 p.m. ET.
Before that series gets underway, let's take a position-by-position look at how the two teams match up and make a quick prediction for who will come out on top.
Catcher
1 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
| Russell Martin | 129 | .240 | .787 | 106 | 23 | 23 | 77 | 76 | 4 | 3.3 |
| Salvador Perez | 142 | .260 | .706 | 138 | 25 | 21 | 70 | 52 | 1 | 2.2 |
Position Overview
The Blue Jays went all-in on Russell Martin in the offseason, signing the free agent to a five-year, $82 million deal that will pay him $20 million annually over the final three years.
That may wind up being a regrettable move by the time 2019 rolls around, but here in 2015 there is no question Martin has been a huge addition to the Toronto lineup and pitching staff.
His 3.3 WAR was third among all catchers this season, his 23 home runs and 77 RBI both represented career highs and he was instrumental in leading the team's young bullpen in the second half.
Meanwhile, Salvador Perez remains perhaps the best all-around catcher in the American League as he brings an impressive mix of power, run-production ability and the best glove at the position this side of Yadier Molina.
He's never going to be a big on-base threat (13 BB in 553 PA), but he too set a career high with 21 home runs while catching at least 137 games for the third consecutive season.
Edge: Blue Jays
There's no catcher I'd rather have for the next five years than the 25-year-old Perez, but at this very moment the edge goes to Martin by the slimmest of margins.
First Baseman
2 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Overview
In perhaps the most underrated move of the offseason, the Blue Jays claimed Chris Colabello off waivers from the Minnesota Twins on Dec. 8 of last year.
The 31-year-old had just two big league seasons under his belt with a .214/.284/.364 line in 365 at-bats. Prior to that he spent seven seasons in the Can-Am League, one in the Mexican League and three years in the Twins minor league system.
Little did he know when he went 8-for-12 with four doubles in a three-game series against the Blue Jays in 2014 that he was in fact auditioning for a job.
He began the year in a platoon with Justin Smoak, who is also on the playoff roster and could see a start if the matchup favors him, but at this point Colabello has taken over as the primary first baseman and No. 5 hitter.
Eric Hosmer was a breakout star for the Royals as a rookie in 2011, but he went through some ups and downs from there before really establishing himself as a force last postseason when he hit .351 with a .966 OPS and 12 RBI in 15 games.
That seemingly provided a springboard to the best regular season of his career this year, as he set personal bests in OPS (.822), home runs (18), RBI (93) and WAR (3.6)
Edge: Royals
Hosmer is the better all-around player, but Colabello is certainly capable of making his presence felt with one swing of the bat.
Second Baseman
3 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Overview
When rookie Devon Travis went down with what turned out to be a season-ending shoulder injury in July, the second base position once again became a hole for the Blue Jays.
Ryan Goins was one of a number of players who had spent time there in previous seasons, but a career .213 average and .531 OPS had kept him from locking down an everyday role.
He's still always going to be a better fielder than hitter, but he turned into a solid bottom-of-the-order producer this year with a .672 OPS and 45 RBI hitting primarily out of the No. 9 spot in the lineup.
Meanwhile, his 1.8 dWAR was good for 17th among all position players, as he played a Gold Glove-caliber second base.
Despite his run at making the All-Star team, Omar Infante was by no means having a good season for the Royals this year. Ben Zobrist was picked up at the trade deadline, but he spent his first month with the team playing left field while Alex Gordon continued to rehab.
With Gordon back healthy, Zobrist has become the team's everyday second baseman, and all told, he hit .284/.364/.453 with 16 doubles and seven home runs in 59 games with the Royals.
Edge: Royals
Goins has done an admirable job returning to an everyday role after it looked like he would be relegated to the bench this year, but Zobrist has a clear edge here as an offensive difference-maker.
.png?w=256)
Third Baseman
4 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Overview
What in the world were the Oakland Athletics thinking when they traded Josh Donaldson?
It's been almost 11 months now since that surprise blockbuster deal was made, and we still don't have an answer.
After finishing in the top 10 in AL MVP voting the past two years, Donaldson is the front-runner to win the award this year, as he put together a monster season offensively and was once again a plus defender at the hot corner (11 DRS, 9.8 UZR/150) as well.
Mike Moustakas spent time in the minors in 2013 and 2014 as he struggled to establish himself as a viable everyday player, but things finally seemed to click last October.
The 27-year-old posted an .817 OPS with five home runs during the team's postseason run last year and, much like teammate Eric Hosmer, used his big playoff performance as a springboard to a big regular season.
He was an All-Star for the first time and also a quietly rock-solid defender (4 DRS, 1.4 UZR/150) at the hot corner.
Edge: Blue Jays
Props to Moose on a breakout season, but Donaldson is your AL MVP and the better player both offensively and defensively, so he's an easy choice here.
Shortstop
5 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Overview
When the Blue Jays acquired Troy Tulowitzki ahead of the trade deadline, and ahead of the David Price deal, it almost looked like overkill given how good the team already was offensively and their glaring need for pitching help.
However, once the dust settled on a busy trade deadline, it was clear that the Blue Jays were a better team for the stretch run with Tulowitzki in the mix.
His .239/.317/.380 line following the trade wasn't great, but he came through with a big home run in Game 3 of the ALDS. And really, how many teams can boast a hitter of Tulowitzki's caliber at the No. 6 spot in the lineup?
Alcides Escobar really provided a spark for the Royals offense down the stretch in 2014 when he moved into the leadoff spot in the order, and he remained there for much of the 2015 season.
He was an All-Star for the first time this year, despite seeing significant declines in batting average (.284 to .257), OPS (.694 to .614) and WAR (2.5 to 0.6).
With good speed, a plus glove and solid contact skills at the top of the lineup, he's still capable of making his presence felt, even if he did suffer through a down season.
Edge: Blue Jays
Escobar is important as a table-setter for the Royals lineup, but Tulowitzki is the better player offensively and no slouch himself with the glove.
Left Fielder
6 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Overview
Somewhat lost in the shuffle of trading for Troy Tulowitzki and David Price, the Blue Jays also added an everyday left fielder and leadoff hitter to their potent lineup in Ben Revere.
After hitting .306 and leading the National League with 184 hits in 2014, he posted an identical batting average this year, but with a significantly better on-base percentage (.324 to .342) and a career-high 22 doubles.
He doesn't walk (5.0 percent) or strike out (10.1 percent) often, making him a good catalyst atop a dangerous lineup.
Alex Gordon missed 48 games this season with a groin injury, returning on Sept. 1 and hitting .250/.327/.365 over the final month of the season while trying to shake off the rust.
That said, he's still a solid offensive threat and probably the best defensive left fielder in baseball.
He also has the added incentive of playing for a big offseason payday, and after going 4-for-17 with a double and a home run in the ALDS, he could be in for a big ALCS performance.
Edge: Royals
Revere is important as a catalyst for the Blue Jays, but Gordon is still the best all-around player on the Royals when he's healthy and played well in the division series.
Center Fielder
7 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Overview
Kevin Pillar began the season looking like the fourth outfielder for the Blue Jays, with Michael Saunders expected to see the bulk of the playing time in left field.
However, a knee injury to Saunders opened the door for Pillar, and his phenomenal defense kept him in the lineup on an everyday basis.
While his .713 OPS and 45 extra-base hits are impressive in their own right, it's his defensive skills (22 DRS, 15.4 UZR/150) that made him a surprise star for the Blue Jays this year.
After a breakout season in 2014, Lorenzo Cain took his game to another level this year as he became a legitimate power threat and run producer in the middle of the Royals lineup.
The 29-year-old entered the season with just 17 career home runs in 1,261 at-bats, but he launched 16 this year in 551 at-bats while also setting career highs in virtually every other offensive category.
While he stepped up his offensive production, speed (28 steals) and defense (18 DRS, 14.1 UZR/150) were still a big part of his game as well, and all of that contributed to a 7.2 WAR that ranked fourth in the American League.
Edge: Royals
Pillar has been a terrific surprise for the Blue Jays this year and brings a lot of the same tools to the table that Cain does. Cain is just better offensively at this point and is in a more important position at the No. 3 spot in the lineup.
Right Fielder
8 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Overview
It was another monster season offensively for Jose Bautista as he eclipsed 40 home runs and 100 RBI for the third time in his career.
He also topped 100 walks (110) for the fourth time in his career on his way to a .377 on-base percentage and .913 OPS, making it awfully easy to overlook his somewhat pedestrian .250 batting average.
Bautista delivered the big blow in the decisive Game 5 of the ALDS with a three-run bomb, and he had two doubles and two home runs overall in what was the first postseason series of his career.
The Royals signed Alex Rios to a one-year, $11 million deal in the offseason as they looked to fill an ongoing need for a right-handed hitting corner outfielder with some pop.
However, injuries limited him to just 105 games, and he was actually a negative-WAR player when he was on the field.
In an offseason that saw the team sign Kendrys Morales, Edinson Volquez, Chris Young and Ryan Madson to what ended up being terrific contracts, Rios was a bust.
He was 4-for-14 with two doubles and two RBI in the ALDS, though, and a strong ALCS could go a long way in erasing the regular season.
Edge: Blue Jays
Biggest edge of any position, no question.
Designated Hitter
9 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Overview
One of three Blue Jays players with at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI, Edwin Encarnacion had another monster season at the plate.
Over the past four seasons, he's hit .274 with a .919 OPS and averaged 38 home runs and 106 RBI per year, and the additions of Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki around him this season have just made him that much more dangerous.
When things are clicking for him, like they were in August (86 AB, .407/.460/.919, 11 2B, 11 HR), he can single-handedly carry an offense.
Then we have Kendrys Morales, the easy choice for AL Comeback Player of the Year honors.
Saddled with a qualifying offer, Morales spent half of the 2014 season waiting to be signed, then hit .218 with a .612 OPS over 367 at-bats after finally getting on the field.
Despite those struggles, the Royals gave him a two-year, $17 million deal to replace the departed Billy Butler, and he has turned that into one of the biggest steals of the offseason.
He had three home runs and six RBI in the division series, and the team will no doubt need him to continue his clutch hitting.
Edge: Blue Jays
This one is an awful lot closer than I would have predicted at the beginning of the season, but the edge still goes to Encarnacion.
Game 1 Starting Pitcher
10 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Comparison
With David Price throwing 50 pitches in relief on Monday and Marcus Stroman starting the decisive Game 5, the Blue Jays will likely turn to Marco Estrada as their Game 1 starter.
Acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in the offseason in exchange for Adam Lind, Estrada was expected to serve as a long reliever/swingman this season, but he quickly emerged as the team's most reliable starter.
His 3.13 ERA is largely the result of an MLB-low .216 BABIP, and his 4.40 FIP is a good indicator that he's headed for some significant regression in 2016.
However, he's rolling right now after allowing five hits and one run in 6.1 innings in his ALDS start, and he's more than deserving of the Game 1 nod.
The Royals signed Edinson Volquez to a two-year, $20 million deal in the offseason, and he proved that his resurgent 2014 season in Pittsburgh was no fluke.
Volquez struggled down the stretch with a 4.55 ERA in his last 10 regular-season starts, and he allowed five hits and three runs in 5.2 innings of work in his ALDS start.
Edge: Blue Jays
This one could really go either way, but Estrada is coming off of the better ALDS start, so he gets the nod.
Game 2 Starting Pitcher
11 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Comparison
The Blue Jays decision to use David Price out of the bullpen in Game 4 is still something of a head-scratcher, and it means he likely won't go in Game 1 of the ALCS, as he'd have just three days of rest from his 50-pitch outing.
Then again, after falling to 0-6 with a 5.23 ERA in six career playoff starts after allowing five runs in seven inning in Game 1 of the ALDS, maybe he's better off slotted as the Game 2 starter this time around.
Now that Clayton Kershaw has seemingly exorcised his postseason demons, it appears Price has assumed the title of "great pitcher who can't win in October." He'll be looking to quickly shake that with a strong Game 2 outing.
It was an up-and-down season for Yordano Ventura, as he did not emerge as the ace the Royals were hoping he would be in place of the departed James Shields.
That said, he really rounded into form down the stretch, going 7-1 with a 2.38 ERA in his final 11 starts of the regular season.
He did not pitch well in the ALDS, though, lasting just two innings and allowing four hits and three runs in Game 1, and then going five innings in Game 4 while again giving up four hits and three runs.
Edge: Blue Jays
Both pitchers have disappointed so far this postseason, but Price is still the better pitcher (and really one of the best pitchers in the game), so we'll bet on him turning things around.
Game 3 Starting Pitcher
12 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Comparison
This may be the most interesting matchup of the series right here.
For the Blue Jays, Marcus Stroman looked to be done for the year when he tore his ACL in spring training, but he battled back and returned for four terrific starts in September.
The emotional 24-year-old has run into some trouble in his two postseason starts, but he has also been dominant at times and flashed the plus-plus stuff that makes him one of the most dynamic young pitchers in the game.
For the Royals, deadline pickup Johnny Cueto was expected to emerge as the ace of the staff, but instead he struggled to a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts with the team.
After a mediocre start in Game 2 of the ALDS (6.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER), he took the ball in the decisive Game 5 and threw a gem, allowing just two hits and two runs in eight innings to pick up the win and lead the Royals on to the ALCS.
Cueto is pitching for a huge payday in the offseason, and another strong start or two in October could go a long way in erasing his September struggles.
Edge: Royals
Stroman is capable of dominating if he can keep his emotions in check, but Cueto turned in one of the best starts of the postseason last time out and showed he's still an ace-caliber arm.
Game 4 Starting Pitcher
13 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison
Position Comparison
Would the Blue Jays take back the trade that sent Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard to the New York Mets for R.A. Dickey if given the chance?
In a heartbeat, but Dickey has not been nearly as bad as he's sometimes made out to be in his three seasons with the team.
Dickey has gone 39-37 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.220 WHIP during his time in Toronto, and he's averaged 218 innings per season as the workhorse of the staff.
He'll be on a short leash, and if he can duplicate his Game 4 performance where he allowed five hits and one run in 4.2 innings, it would be a successful start.
As for the Royals, they didn't use a fourth starter in the ALDS as Yordano Ventura and Johnny Cueto both took the ball twice, so they still need to decide who will be the Game 4 starter between Chris Young and Kris Medlen.
Young made 18 starts and 16 relief appearances during the regular season, going 8-6 with a 3.18 ERA when called upon as a starter, so he should get the nod.
Edge: Royals
Both starters will probably only go five innings in this one unless they're throwing a gem, so this will come down to a bullpen game—and the Royals have the deeper relief corps.
Bullpens
14 of 15
Side-by-Side Stat Comparison/Leaders
| 475.2 IP, 3.50 ERA, 34/56 SV | TEAM | 539.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 56/76 SV |
| Ryan Tepera (32 G, 3.27 ERA) | MR | Kris Medlen (15 G, 4.01 ERA) |
| Liam Hendriks (58 G, 2.92 ERA) | MR | Franklin Morales (67 G, 3.18 ERA) |
| Aaron Loup (60 G, 4.46 ERA) | MR | Luke Hochevar (49 G, 3.73 ERA) |
| LaTroy Hawkins (42 G, 3.26 ERA) | MR | Danny Duffy (30 G, 4.08 ERA) |
| Mark Lowe (57 G, 1.96 ERA) | SU | Kelvin Herrera (72 G, 2.71 ERA) |
| Aaron Sanchez (41 G, 3.22 ERA) | SU | Ryan Madson (68 G, 2.13 ERA) |
| Roberto Osuna (68 G, 2.58 ERA) | CL | Wade Davis (69 G, 0.94 ERA) |
| Osuna (20-of-23) | SV | Davis (17-of-18) |
| Sanchez (10) | HLD | Herrera (21) |
| Hendriks (9.9) | K/9 | Davis (10.4) |
| Sanchez/Osuna (1.7) | WAR | Davis (3.4) |
Bullpen Overview
A vastly improved bullpen is one of the most overlooked facets of this year's Blue Jays team, as they went from 25th in the league with a 4.09 ERA to 12th in the league with a 3.50 ERA.
Deadline additions LaTroy Hawkins and Mark Lowe have paired with rookies Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna to give the team four reliable arms they can call on to protect a lead.
However, losing Brett Cecil (63 G, 2.48 ERA, 11.6 K/9) to a torn left calf muscle is a huge blow, as he was the team's best left-hander by far and the Royals have a number of dangerous left-handed bats.
The Royals are also without a key arm, as All-Star closer Greg Holland was lost to Tommy John surgery in September.
However, they have perhaps the most dominant reliever in all of baseball to replace him in Wade Davis. He nailed down both of his save chances in the ALDS, allowing just one hit and striking out five in four scoreless innings.
Kelvin Herrera and Ryan Madson give them a pair of reliable setup options, while Danny Duffy, Kris Medlen and Luke Hochevar are all capable of going multiple innings if needed.
They too are lacking a shutdown left-hander, though, as Franklin Morales and Duffy are the two southpaws out of the pen.
Edge: Royals
The Royals are the easy answer here, and Wade Davis is an absolute beast. You better believe the Royals took notice in Roberto Osuna striking out four in a five-out save to nail down Game 5 for the Blue Jays, though.
Series Prediction
15 of 15
It's right about now that the Toronto Blue Jays probably wish they had overtaken the Kansas City Royals for home-field advantage in the ALCS, as they were a 53-28 at home during the regular season and just 40-41 on the road.
Then again, they just won two elimination games in Texas, so maybe that doesn't matter at all in October.
At any rate, we'll say the two teams split the first two games of the series, with Marco Estrada pitching the Blue Jays to victory in Game 1 and the Royals squeaking out a close one in Game 2 when Yordano Ventura and David Price both pitch well. However, Price is saddled with the tough-luck loss after allowing three runs over seven innings.
The series then moves to Toronto, where the fans are rowdy once again and the Blue Jays pull out a dramatic come-from-behind win in Game 3 after being silenced for six innings by Johnny Cueto.
The Royals even things up behind a strong piggyback start from Chris Young and Kris Medlen in Game 4, but the Blue Jays offense explodes for double-digit runs in Game 5 to take a 3-2 lead heading back to Kansas City.
Yordano Ventura pitches well facing elimination in Game 6, but David Price finally has his postseason moment as a starter with a complete-game victory to pitch the Blue Jays into the World Series.
Series Prediction: Blue Jays 4, Royals 2
All standard statistics and WAR totals courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, while defensive metrics come via FanGraphs.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
