Fantasy Basketball Sleepers: Ranking the Top 10 Picks for 2015-16

You aren't going to win your fantasy basketball league without successfully identifying a few sleepers. 

I'm not talking about players typically taken in the fourth or fifth round who emerge as steals. Those guys are still quite valuable to your title quests, but we want to dig even deeper, finding the fantasy prospects who aren't going until the back end of standard drafts. If you can nail those picks, you're in fantastic shape. 

And why wouldn't you take a flier in the last few rounds? Sure, you could snag a veteran capable of making steady contributions, but wouldn't you rather get risky with a high-upside play who might eventually move into your starting lineup rather than the safe selection who spends the season floundering on your bench until you inevitably drop him for a hot hand? 

Along those lines, we're only looking at players with an average draft position (ADP) outside the top 100. Anyone inside the arbitrary barrier is already awake. 

These 10 might be taken late in your standard league, but they're all set up to exceed their draft-day value by significant amounts and ordered according to the amount by which they'll do so. Thanks to varying degrees of non-traditional production, inevitable breakouts or loads of playing time, they're guys you want on your radar before anyone else catches on. 

10. Kyle O'Quinn

Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images

Team: New York Knicks

Position: PF/C

Age: 25

2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 5.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks

Yahoo ADP: Undrafted

This dude can shoot the ball, and it won't take long for the New York Knicks to realize it. 

Coming off a season in which he shot 49.2 percent from the field and knocked down a few three-point attempts for the Orlando Magic, Kyle O'Quinn has been scorching during the early preseason action, showing off an expanded range and more confidence from all sections of the court. But perhaps even more impressively, he's an impact defender in the painted area, which makes him vital to the Knicks' success. 

With Robin Lopez and Kristaps Porzingis potentially taking the starting spots at power forward and center, O'Quinn could be coming off the bench. Then again, the Knicks could still decide to ease their first-round pick along and hand the New York native a berth in the opening lineup for a substantial part of the season. 

Even if that's not the case, he should be the first big off the pine, playing at least 20 minutes per game for a New York team that needs convincing size and defensive ability alongside Carmelo Anthony and the guards. 

Based on last year's per-minute pace, that kind of run would allow O'Quinn (6'10" 240 lbs) to average 7.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.0 blocks without hurting you in any of the percentage categories. If he's on the court for longer stretches—even without the improvement we expect—he could be one of those ultra-valuable guys who contribute at least a steal and block during the typical outing. 

You could do far worse with a last-round flier at power forward. 

9. Myles Turner

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Team: Indiana Pacers

Position: C

Age: 19

2014-15 Per-Game Stats: N/A

Yahoo ADP: 139.5

If you're looking to win your fantasy league, it's essential that you manage to find some non-traditional production from one of the positions. Myles Turner should be able to fill that void at center, coupling his rebounding and shot-blocking ability with a knack for spacing the court with some outside jumpers. 

Though he missed his first four looks from beyond the arc during preseason action with the Indiana Pacers, this rookie big man should have the green light to fire away when games actually count. This team needs frontcourt players who can help stretch out a defense, and Turner is the only feasible candidate capable of filling that role.

But even if this Texas product experiences some rough patches during his first professional campaign, he has other skills that make him worth rostering. His rebounding efforts and rejections will both be quite valuable, and so too will his work at the charity stripe. 

During his one season playing for the Longhorns, Turner knocked down his shots from the free-throw line at an 83.9 percent clip while taking 5.3 per 36 minutes. With so many centers struggling to maintain reasonable percentages, this can be a huge boost for a team unwilling to bite the bullet by drafting Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard or DeAndre Jordan at the 5. 

8. T.J. Warren

Barry Gossage/Getty Images

Team: Phoenix Suns

Position: SF

Age: 22

2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 6.1 points, 2.1 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.2 blocks

Yahoo ADP: 148.4

It's not a question of whether T.J. Warren eventually takes over for P.J. Tucker as the starting small forward for the Phoenix Suns. When it happens is the more relevant query, and a lot will depend on the success of the team as a whole. 

Chances are the Suns quickly slip out of playoff contention in the brutal Western Conference, and that will make it a lot easier for head coach Jeff Hornacek to justify a change that moves the veteran 3 to the bench in favor of the high-upside 22-year-old. And as soon as Warren gets into the lineup more frequently, he's going to put up points. 

This forward is a precocious scorer who overcomes his lack of athleticism and range with touch from virtually every area of the court inside the arc. He's especially deadly in the paint, where he consistently creates just enough space to get up a shot.

Michael Pina, writing for Sports on Earth, concurs: 

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A nonconformist whose skill set remains appealing for a variety of reasons, Warren's particular tools may never meld within a highly efficient NBA offense. But for now he's here because he knows how to score (only eight players averaged more points per game at Las Vegas Summer League) and can do so from the single most sacred spot on a basketball court: the paint.

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Warren admittedly doesn't get to the charity stripe too often, and he's not going to contribute in every category relevant to your fantasy leagues. If either of those factors changes, his value will skyrocket. 

But even if one or both don't, this Sun figures to be a strong source of highly efficient points during his sophomore season, and he'll come much cheaper than other players with similar levels of one-category production. 

7. Rodney Hood

Melissa Majchrzak/Getty Images

Team: Utah Jazz

Position: SG/SF

Age: 22

2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks

Yahoo ADP: 148.1

"I think he's thrived in any situation over the course of the last six months," Utah Jazz head coach Quin Snyder said about Rodney Hood after the team's first preseason game, per Tony Jones of the Salt Lake Tribune. "I didn't think he played badly in the first game, he just missed some shots. He and Alec (Burks) are going to handle the ball a lot. I think we're still getting to know each other on the wings."

Even though the Jazz had opportunities to upgrade at the 2 during the offseason, there was never so much as a whisper hinting they wanted to do so. After all, everyone in this organization seems quite content with Hood's upside, especially when paired with Alec Burks. 

Burks may ultimately win the starting job, but that won't be a death knell for Hood's fantasy prospects. He'll still be the leading scorer of the second unit, capably spelling both the starting 2-guard and Gordon Hayward for sizable stretches of every contest. His ability to connect from the outside and handle the ball guarantees as much. 

During Utah's last 20 games in 2014-15, Hood made 17 appearances. He moved into the starting lineup for 16 of them and averaged 14.2 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.2 blocks while shooting 46.9 percent from the field and 40 percent from beyond the arc. If he can keep that up, he'll be worth more than the last-round pick it currently takes to get him in standard leagues. 

6. Jeremy Lamb

Joe Murphy/Getty Images

Team: Charlotte Hornets

Position: SG/SF

Age: 23

2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 6.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks

Yahoo ADP: Undrafted

As Ken Berger explained for CBS Sports, the Charlotte Hornets have been trying to get their hands on Jeremy Lamb for quite some time. Now that they finally have, the potentially season-ending shoulder surgery endured by Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could immediately thrust him into a big role: 

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But the Hornets' offseason acquisition with the biggest upside, and with the greatest opportunity to assert himself in MKG's potentially season-long absence, is Lamb. If he wins the starting two-guard job—and, if Batum is playing the three (it's difficult to imagine how he won't)—then Lamb either has to make considerably more jumpers or develop his drive game and get to the paint.

"They love Lamb," said a league source plugged into the dynamics in Charlotte. "He's really the only long, athletic shooting guard they have now that Batum will be back at the three. He has a chance to be really good."

This has been the opinion in the Charlotte front office for some time. Sources say the Hornets tried to trade for Lamb long before he finally became available—for pennies on the dollar when Oklahoma City no longer had any use or luxury-tax dollars for him.

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Lamb's career with the Oklahoma City Thunder was nothing if not disappointing. He stagnated under former OKC head coach Scott Brooks, failing to play with much passion and finding iron far more often than twine whenever he decided to loft up a shot attempt.

But this swingman is still only 23 years old, and he's not too far removed from his unabashed dominance for the Connecticut Huskies. Lamb has the athletic tools necessary to excel as a slashing off-ball wing as well as the shooting stroke conducive to spacing out the floor, even if he's failed to put those abilities together into a cohesive package thus far. 

Even before this opportunity to earn significant playing time arose, Lamb had the feel of a post-hype sleeper in a new location. Now that major minutes are his to lose, it would be foolish to overlook him entirely. Far too many are doing so, given the fact that he's going undrafted in the average standard league. 

5. Gerald Green

Fernando Medina/Getty Images

Team: Miami Heat

Position: SG/SF

Age: 29

2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks

Yahoo ADP: 136.9

When you're looking for sleepers, you don't always have to target young players who can break out. They're the primary candidates, but so too are veterans who find themselves in new situations that portend excess playing time.

But wait, isn't Gerald Green going to come off the bench for the Miami Heat? 

He is. And he's not even the most notable name starting on the pine, thanks to the presence of rookie small forward Justise Winslow. However, the Duke product likely won't serve as a primary backup at the 2, thereby limiting his impact. 

Green has no such restrictions, especially given his newfound desire to assert himself as a defensive player. 

"I feel like I'm learning a lot from watching the great defenders on this team. I'm coming in early and trying to fast track and get the rotations down," he told Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post. "I'm doing all the things I can. Now I've gotta go out in the games and play some defense."

A committed Green will receive plenty of run in a lineup that figures to rest Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng quite often. He'll make spot starts throughout the year if he remains committed to the less glamorous end, and we know he has the enduring athletic tools necessary to earn some steals and blocks. 

Plus, it's not like his slashing game and three-point stroke are just going to dry up in South Beach. 

4. Gary Harris

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Team: Denver Nuggets

Position: SG

Age: 21

2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 3.4 points, 1.2 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.1 blocks

Yahoo ADP: Undrafted

Gary Harris was admittedly atrocious as a rookie, struggling throughout his first go-round to the tune of 30.4 percent shooting from the field and an almost unimaginable minus-0.7 win shares. To put that latter number in perspective, only 28 first-year players have posted lower totals during the three-point era. 

But there's reason to expect a massive turnaround, one that would allow this 21-year-old out of Michigan State to become a worthwhile fantasy asset. 

First, Harris already profiles as a plus defender capable of competing for a high spot on the steals leaderboard. He averaged an even two swipes per 36 minutes as a rookie, and his steal percentage of 2.7 percent would have left him tied for the No. 11 spot on the overall leaderboard if he'd played enough minutes to qualify. 

But this shooting guard also has an impressive outside stroke—even if it didn't lead to results in 2014-15—and should be in line for an expanded role under head coach Mike Malone. Buried in the rotation of former head coach Brian Shaw, Harris is now an ideal fit for the new schemes set to be employed by the recently hired signal-caller, looking like the potential three-and-D wing player Malone so often wants. Needs, even.

Thinking along those lines and relying on the SCHOENE projection model, ESPN.com's Bradford Doolittle actually revealed that Harris topped his list of breakout second-year players:

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Harris got lost in the shuffle a little bit last season. This year he looks a lot more comfortable at the NBA level. He's shooting the ball extremely well and his decision-making has been much more crisp than it was last year. SCHOENE tabs his chances at a breakout season at 19 percent, the highest of any second-year player who projects to average double-digit minutes. Harris' numbers have nowhere to go but up and right now the depth chart looks pretty open in Denver at shooting guard. For Nuggets fans, if Harris and Emmanuel Mudiay emerge as Denver's best backcourt combination, that's a great sign for their team's future.

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If Harris remains behind Randy Foye on the depth chart and ends up serving as a sixth man, you'll still want to keep tabs on him. But if he wins the starting job by continuing his strong preseason, draft him without thinking twice. 

3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Allen Einstein/Getty Images

Team: Detroit Pistons

Position: SG

Age: 22

2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.7 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.2 blocks

Yahoo ADP: 119.9

Getting around one steal each time he takes to the court is nice. Having some contributions in the rebounding column from your shooting guard is highly beneficial. 

But make no mistake about it. If you're high on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, it's because of his potential to rain down three-pointers in head coach Stan Van Gundy's one-in, four-out schemes. During his sophomore season, Caldwell-Pope knocked down 1.9 triples per game while shooting 34.5 percent from beyond the arc, and it's reasonable to think both those numbers will increase. 

"I feel more comfortable with the ball, coming off screens and making plays. So by working and making that a main point this summer, it's helped me through training camp..." the 22-year-old revealed to Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press. "That built my confidence, and it carried over into training camp and carrying it on into the season."

For whatever it's worth, Caldwell-Pope is hitting 2.3 triples per game and shooting at a 52.9 percent clip through five preseason outings. Though the percentage is likely unsustainable, it's not inconceivable to imagine the quantity actually increasing during the regular season, when he starts playing even more minutes. 

As a rookie, the former Georgia Bulldog struggled. As a sophomore, he improved dramatically. Now, as a third-year player, he's a key part of the Pistons' quest to end their long-standing playoff drought, and playing time won't be an issue. 

Don't be surprised if he pushes closer to hitting 200 three-pointers on the season—a total far higher than what you'd typically expect from a contributor drafted after at least 100 other players are already off the board. 

2. Aaron Gordon

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Team: Orlando Magic

Position: PF

Age: 20

2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 5.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.5 blocks

Yahoo ADP: 135.9

During three summer-league outings, Aaron Gordon averaged 21.7 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.7 blocks while shooting 50 percent from both the field and three-point territory. Notably, the latter percentage came while he took four deep attempts per contest. 

Statistics on that stage clearly have to be digested with a grain of salt. However, they still showed the diverse array of skills Gordon has at his disposal. Though he was drafted as a defensive specialist, his offense is developing far more quickly than expected, thanks to his newfound comfort launching long-range shots and occasionally putting the ball on the floor. 

Playing time will be the biggest issue for this 20-year-old. The Orlando Magic must also fit Channing Frye and Andrew Nicholson at power forward, while Tobias Harris could get some run at the 4 in smaller lineups.

But whenever Gordon is on the court, he's inevitably going to put up monstrous per-minute numbers, contributing in all five major counting stats. Few players have the tools necessary to score from the outside, haul in rebounds, generate a few assists and provide both blocks and steals on a regular basis. 

Gordon does, and he's only getting better. 

1. Meyers Leonard

Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports

Team: Portland Trail Blazers

Position: PF/C

Age: 23

2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 5.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.3 blocks

Yahoo ADP: 107

During his third professional season, Meyers Leonard shot 51 percent from the field, 42 percent from beyond the arc and 93.8 percent from the charity stripe. Though he didn't play enough to gain eligibility for the actual 50-40-90 club, he still became only the ninth player in NBA history to hit those cutoffs while logging at least 15 minutes per contest and taking more than a single triple per game (he took two).

The other eight?

• Larry Bird (twice)
• Jose Calderon 
• Kevin Durant
• Steve Kerr
• Reggie Miller
• Steve Nash (four times)
• Dirk Nowitzki
• Mark Price

That's some damn good company, and Leonard should spend this follow-up campaign proving his numbers weren't flukes. He already began doing so with an expanded role during the playoffs, and the Portland Trail Blazers' sudden rebuild gives him the perfect opportunity to seize major minutes as the starting center or power forward. 

Given his shooting touch, rebounding ability and knack for protecting the rim (though that doesn't lead to noteworthy block totals), it would be shocking if he didn't become a consistent starter. Playing time won't be hard to come by in Rip City, and with it comes room for plenty of production. 

Leonard is currently falling just outside the top 100 spots in average drafts, but he has the ability to elevate his stock all the way into the top 50, even if he falls just shy of another 50-40-90 season. Though such an evaluation might seem hyperbolic, it's not.

Centers who can shoot like this don't grow on trees. 

All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and RealGM.com. ADP information comes from Yahoo Sports. 

Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter:@fromal09.