Week 7 Games That Will Have Biggest Impact on College Football Playoff
This weekend will mark the halfway point of the 2015 college football season. We’ve learned a lot about which teams are true contenders and which are pretenders, but we still have a long way to go before reaching the league championships and the College Football Playoff selection process. And that’s great.
This weekend, for example, provides a bounty of juicy matchups. Five games match teams currently in the Associated Press Top 25, including a pair of Top 10 faceoffs. In addition, No. 13 Ole Miss travels to face unbeaten Memphis in a potentially difficult road clash.
In other words, the CFP picture could see a major shake-up come Sunday morning, with impactful games across the nation. Here’s a look at the Week 7 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff. They're listed as they'll appear on the schedule, from Thursday through Saturday night.
No. 18 UCLA at No. 15 Stanford
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Although UCLA and Stanford share the same state, they don’t share a division. Stanford is in the Pac-12 North, while UCLA is in the Pac-12 South. However, this Thursday night game still has plenty of meaning, both for Pac-12 and College Football Playoff scenarios.
The Bruins spent an off week licking their wounds following a 38-23 loss to Arizona State, while the Cardinal have won four straight after an opening-week loss at Northwestern.
UCLA needs to beat the Cardinal to keep any hopes of playoff consideration alive, and the Bruins are seeking revenge for a 31-10 whipping at Stanford’s hands in the 2014 regular-season finale that cost them the South title. Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen (nine touchdowns, five interceptions) will need to find some more consistency against Stanford’s tough defense.
Stanford has found success moving the ball on the ground, averaging 209.8 yards per game (No. 27 nationally). Sophomore tailback Christian McCaffrey is developing into a star, with 601 yards rushing. This will be an intriguing game for those who stay up late and check it out.
No. 17 Iowa at No. 20 Northwestern
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Entering 2015, this wouldn’t have been a game that would have piqued the radar of many outside of Iowa City or Evanston, Illinois. But the Hawkeyes and Wildcats have been two of the bigger surprises nationally and in the Big Ten race.
Iowa shook off 2014’s disappointing 7-6 record with a 6-0 start after Kirk Ferentz and his staff spent the offseason giving the program a successful internal makeover, turning the offense over to quarterback C.J. Beathard and generally taking more risks in all phases of the game. It’s worked, but the Hawkeyes are beat up. They’ll be without wide receiver Tevaun Smith, star defensive end Drew Ott and likely both starting offensive tackles due to injuries, and they must persevere on the road.
Northwestern is coming off its first loss of the season, a 38-0 shellacking at Michigan’s hands, but the Wildcats look like they’ve shaken off consecutive 5-7 seasons. They have an impressive defense that will test Beathard in a game that could decide the Big Ten West and perhaps boost one of the programs into the fringes of playoff contention. Either way, this game means a lot more than it did two months ago.
No. 13 Ole Miss at Memphis
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Oxford, Mississippi, and Memphis are only about 70 miles apart, but the localized rivalry between Ole Miss and Memphis should get some national attention this week. The teams are a combined 10-1 entering their Liberty Bowl showdown, with Ole Miss coming off a 52-3 win against New Mexico State after a disappointing 38-10 beatdown at Florida on Oct. 3.
The Rebels need to keep winning to stay in the College Football Playoff picture, and that won’t be easy against the Tigers. Memphis (5-0) has kept the momentum from 2014’s 10-win season, and quarterback Paxton Lynch (1,535 yards, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions) has been excellent.
Ole Miss hasn’t missed a beat following 2014’s nine-win, Peach Bowl campaign, and quarterback Chad Kelly leads the SEC with 1,862 passing yards to go with 14 touchdowns. This will be the Rebels’ final game without star left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who will serve the final game of a seven-game NCAA suspension for accepting extra benefits.
The Rebels have won six straight against Memphis, including last season’s 24-3 win in Oxford. To change that, Memphis must shut down the Rebs’ aerial attack and find a way to control a nasty defensive line. Still, this is an under-the-radar challenge for Ole Miss’ playoff hopes.
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No. 10 Alabama at No. 9 Texas A&M
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Since Texas A&M joined the SEC three years ago, the Aggies have quickly built rivalries that matter within the SEC West. Take Alabama, for example. Johnny Manziel’s Heisman Trophy campaign was built on a virtuoso performance in Tuscaloosa, showing the SEC that A&M was for real. This year, however, the Aggies have revenge on their minds in a Top 10 showdown.
One year ago, Alabama completely embarrassed A&M in a 59-0 Bryant-Denny Stadium beatdown, ending Kenny Hill’s brief run as starting quarterback. That, in turn, elevated Kyle Allen to the starting role, and he has been solid. This season, he has 1,274 yards with 13 touchdowns against two interceptions. The biggest story, however, has been A&M’s improved defense under John Chavis.
With star end Myles Garrett wreaking havoc, the Aggies defense has been excellent, allowing 21 points per game. With a fast-paced offense that rolls up 292.4 passing yards per game (No. 23 nationally), it has allowed A&M to regain SEC relevance with an unbeaten record.
Alabama is trying to stay in the playoff picture despite a loss to Ole Miss, and a win over Texas A&M, coupled with a dominant win at Georgia, would help immensely. Junior tailback Derrick Henry has 665 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he could use more consistent play from quarterback Jake Coker, who has 11 touchdowns against six interceptions while completing 59.9 percent of his passes. This is a huge game for SEC and College Football Playoff relevance.
No. 7 Michigan State at No. 12 Michigan
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Michigan State has won six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry, and on the surface this summer, this didn’t seem to be that much different. However, Jim Harbaugh has accelerated Michigan’s rebuilding process much quicker than expected.
Following a 24-17 season-opening loss to Utah (which looks better by the week), the Wolverines are 5-0 with three consecutive shutouts. In those five games, they’ve outscored their foes 160-14 and have looked like one of the nation’s most dominant teams. Michigan is allowing 6.3 points per game and boasts the top scoring defense in FBS.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is unbeaten, but the Spartans have struggled in late escapes, beating Rutgers and Purdue by a combined 10 points. They look vulnerable, and Harbaugh and the Wolverines would vault into the national conversation by beating them in Ann Arbor.
No. 8 Florida at No. 6 LSU
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Under the SEC’s current divisional format, Florida and LSU are permanent cross-divisional rivals. When the 2015 schedule came out, this meeting might have lacked a little heft, given that Florida was ticketed for a building year under new coach Jim McElwain. Boy, that has changed.
The Gators have rocketed into the Top 10 nationally thanks to a strong defense (they rank No. 11 nationally in scoring defense at 14.3 points per game) and an acceptable offense. But they face a serious test in Baton Rouge without one of the keys to that offensive success, quarterback Will Grier.
Grier had emerged as a capable leader for the offense, with 1,204 passing yards and 10 touchdowns against three interceptions. But he’ll miss the rest of the season while serving an NCAA suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Florida will turn over the offense to sophomore Treon Harris, who started seven games as a freshman but lost the job to Grier this summer. He is a more mobile quarterback and less polished passer, although he has completed over 70 percent of his attempts in limited action this fall.
LSU rides in unbeaten, keyed by leading Heisman Trophy candidate Leonard Fournette. Fournette is enjoying a breakout season, with 1,022 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns while averaging 8.6 yards per carry. He has rushed for at least 158 yards in all five games this season, with three 200-yard efforts. Florida defensive end Jon Bullard is confident the Gators can stop Fournette.
"He's the best back in the league. We're just going to have to rally to the ball and tackle him," Bullard said, per NFL.com's Chase Goodbread. "I don't think it's ... he's nothing we can't stop, but we all have to rally to the ball, because he's an excellent athlete."
This is a Top 10 matchup, but without Grier, Florida will be hard-pressed to emerge from Baton Rouge victorious.
Southern California at No. 14 Notre Dame
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Notre Dame-Southern California is always one of the nation’s best rivalries. In August, this looked like a game that would have a huge impact on the College Football Playoff, but now it only looks that way for one team. The Fighting Irish (5-1) remain in the picture while trying to overcome a tough 24-22 loss at Clemson on Oct. 3, but Southern California’s season is falling apart.
The Trojans are 3-2 after an ugly 17-12 home loss to Washington, and head coach Steve Sarkisian was fired following alcohol-related issues. Interim coach Clay Helton will attempt to keep the ship afloat in South Bend.
Notre Dame redshirt freshman quarterback DeShone Kizer has been solid in relief of the injured Malik Zaire, throwing for 1,143 yards with eight touchdowns against four interceptions. Tailback C.J. Prosise has been a revelation with 779 yards and nine touchdowns, and Will Fuller has emerged as one of the nation’s top receivers, with 29 receptions for 571 yards and seven scores.
The Irish can’t afford another loss if they want to stay in the playoff picture. The Trojans just want to prove they still have some fight left following Sarkisian’s ugly ouster.
Arizona State at No. 4 Utah
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If you still have some energy following a long day of college football, spend it on Arizona State at No. 4 Utah and its 10 p.m. ET kickoff Saturday night. The Utes are one of the game’s more pleasant surprises, emerging as the Pac-12’s only unbeaten team at 5-0 after holding off Cal 30-24 last week.
They have a stingy offense that allows 19.8 points per game (No. 33 nationally) and are keyed by an excellent rushing attack that rolls up 216.2 yards per game, No. 24 nationally. Senior tailback Devontae Booker has been excellent, with 665 yards rushing and six scores.
Arizona State scuffled to start the season, but the Sun Devils appear dangerous after rolling up 43 points per game in routs of UCLA and Colorado. Quarterback Mike Bercovici will test the Utes defense: He has thrown for 1,604 yards with 14 touchdowns against four interceptions and has a deep receiver group at his disposal.
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