Will Gus Malzahn Be on Hot Seat If Auburn Loses to Kentucky?
First off, let's begin by stating it's much too early to put Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn on the hot seat.
But consider some of these facts for Malzahn's Tigers heading into Thursday night's SEC matchup at Kentucky.
Auburn has lost five straight SEC games and six of its last eight. Four of those losses were by 11 or more points, and its only two wins were by a combined 11 points.
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The Tigers have an 11-7 record in conference play under Malzahn—and that includes a 7-1 campaign in 2013 that ended in an SEC championship.
That kind of record would be tough to swallow for most teams in the cutthroat SEC West, especially one that was a preseason Top 10 program in back-to-back seasons.
Last season, Auburn's defense received the brunt of the criticism for the program's fall from potential national title contender, and Malzahn dismissed defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson in favor of Will Muschamp.
The former Florida head coach became the highest-paid coordinator in the country and was tasked with rebuilding an Auburn defense he once led to national excellence under head coach Tommy Tuberville.
But thanks in part to the injury to his best player and the forced use of completely inexperienced freshmen in thin areas on the depth chart, Muschamp's new defense has regressed in several major areas this season.
| Total YPG | 398.8 (66th) | 412.0 (87th) |
| Rushing YPG | 168.7 (69th) | 209.6 (108th) |
| TFL Per Game | 6.3 (50th) | 4.6 (113th) |
| 3rd Down % | 35.8% (26th) | 47.1% (115th) |
And if Auburn's defense hasn't taken any steps forward in 2015, its offense has definitely been knocked backward to an unforeseen position.
Malzahn's patented hurry-up, no-huddle attack lacks the explosiveness and efficiency that defined it during the offensive guru's earlier seasons on the Plains.
| Total YPG | 485.0 (17th) | 343.8 (104th) |
| Rushing YPG | 255.5 (14th) | 190.0 (48th) |
| Passing YPG | 229.5 (67th) | 153.8 (114th) |
| PPG | 35.5 (27th) | 24.6 (95th) |
Auburn's heavily hyped preseason Heisman contender at quarterback, Jeremy Johnson, threw six interceptions in his first three starts of the season—and there's a great chance he will return to the No. 1 role Thursday night in Lexington.
The offensive line, which returned three players with at least one season of starting experience, has failed to provide its usual amount of push up front. Auburn's most physically gifted receiver, Duke Williams, is no longer on the team after a tumultuous few months filled with off-the-field issues.
If it wasn't for the play of running back Peyton Barber, who was expected to be third on the depth chart heading into the season, Auburn's offense would be in an even bigger amount of trouble heading into the Kentucky game.
"It's difficult to live in a world of hypotheticals, but Barber has undoubtedly saved the Tigers several times," Brandon Marcello of AL.com wrote. "[He] melted the clock with several first-down runs in the 31-24 victory against Louisville... His big catch on 3rd-and-9 and the ensuing touchdown run in overtime pulled Auburn out of upset territory against Jacksonville State."
With a defense that hasn't improved and an offense that has failed to live up to any expectations, Auburn now heads into Kentucky.
Judging by the rest of its schedule, Auburn most likely won't be favored in another SEC game this season—and it's somewhat surprising the Tigers are currently two-point favorites on the road, according to Odds Shark.
Even though the Wildcats had to scrape by UL-Lafayette and FCS foe Eastern Kentucky earlier this season, they still boast a 4-1 record with a pair of SEC wins. Big-play back Stanley "Boom" Williams is set to return to the starting lineup this week for Kentucky, just in time to face the nation's 108th-ranked rush defense.
A game that was penciled in as a strong win possibility in the preseason for a title contender currently appears to be a must-win situation for a program trying to hold onto hopes of just making a bowl.
As Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote:
"Muschamp and Malzahn had better hope Auburn got things fixed last week, because the game vs. Kentucky is an enormous game for this season's Tigers, the development of younger players who need bowl practices and the confidence of a team that has been absent of the characteristic all season long.
"
If the Tigers drop Thursday night's contest in the Bluegrass State, then an already dim season will turn downright bleak. The Idaho game between tough contests against Georgia and Alabama would be the last "sure win," and Auburn would need a pair of upsets just to make the postseason.
So does a loss to Kentucky put Malzahn on the hot seat?
Probably not. Malzahn's current contract has quite a large buyout, and Auburn is still paying former head coach Gene Chizik through the end of the 2015-16 fiscal year, per AL.com's Joel A. Erickson. It would be ridiculous to hit the reset button again, especially after sinking all that money into Muschamp.
It would take something catastrophic for Auburn to consider firing Malzahn and his staff. The athletic department made its move on Chizik, who was also two years removed from a run to the national title, after three straight blowout losses to end SEC play. Auburn didn't even score a point on Georgia and Alabama.
The hot-seat talk seems too reactionary at this point, but there's no doubt missing a bowl game in a season that started with extremely high expectations would make Malzahn's seat even more uncomfortable heading into the 2016 season. Auburn's SEC record in its last two seasons speaks for itself.
Granted, the Tigers have a great opportunity to turn things around after getting healthier and refocused in their previous bye week.
A prime-time win over Kentucky would give Auburn some momentum heading into Arkansas, and another win there would almost guarantee a bowl berth for a team that will return most of its starters in 2016.
But the turnaround must start now, or every ounce of optimism and forward momentum Malzahn created in his magical first season will be long gone on the Plains.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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