College Football Playoff Notebook: Welcome to Shakeup Weekend
By roughly 2 a.m. this coming Sunday, when the dust has cleared and the wreckage is being assessed, things will look mighty different than they do right now. It’s inevitable.
The games—this glorious, deep and impactful lineup of matches—will drastically alter the way this College Football Playoff is assessed in a matter of 12 hours. Despite college football’s willingness to offer unpredictable results early on this season, Week 7 is more of an unavoidable collision.
There are five games featuring two teams ranked in the Top 25—headlined, of course, by Alabama-Texas A&M, Michigan-Michigan State and Florida-LSU. The winners of these games will enjoy a lovely resume boost in the eyes of the committee; the loser will have to find such boosts elsewhere in weeks to come.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Other matchups, such as Arizona State-Utah, for example, are by no means a cakewalk for the favorite. And Ole Miss-Memphis—a strange, emotion-filled, out-of-conference game at this point in the season—could propel both programs into a new spotlight. And there are more. Lots more.
The intrigue is everywhere, and as a result, the implications will be immense. With the College Football Playoff selection committee suddenly just weeks from revealing its first Top 25, the importance of this Saturday cannot be overstated.
Use whatever metaphors, bombast and alliteration at your disposal to label the week ahead. You won’t be wrong. No longer simply a matter of waiting for upsets and oddities, Week 7 brings it right to our doorstep.
As for the teams moving up, the teams moving down, some love for the Big 12 and equal love for Michigan, here is the latest installment of the College Football Playoff notebook.
Arrow Pointing Up
Alabama Crimson Tide
After the Alabama dynasty was pronounced dead (again), Nick Saban’s team responded with statement wins against Georgia and Arkansas. Now, after all hope was lost following its defeat against Ole Miss, Alabama finds itself in a favorable position entering an enormous week. The offense suddenly has some life and the defense has looked like its dominant ol’ self. While winning at Texas A&M will be no easy feat, this is the kind of game that could propel the Crimson Tide back into the forefront of the playoff chatter.
Florida State Seminoles
This has to be one of the least-discussed undefeated teams in recent memory. Although it has not always been pretty—and that was indeed the case in a win over Miami last Saturday—it has been effective. The Seminoles are quietly trudging along, taking care of business. If running back Dalvin Cook is healthy, they can win every game remaining on their schedule. With Louisville, Georgia Tech and Clemson all on tap in the next month, we’re about to test that “undefeated” label plenty. Still, very quietly, Florida State has entered this conversation.
Arrow Pointing Down
Florida Gators
The Gators have been fabulous. Through six weeks, they look like a playoff team. The offense has found life under a new head coach and the defense has looked dominant. The problem? Starting quarterback Will Grier has been suspended for the remainder of the season after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. Given the way Grier has played, this is a crushing blow. It changes everything, especially with LSU on deck. Treon Harris, who has experience, will now steer this undefeated ship. While the loss will be difficult to overcome, Harris doesn’t lack ability. And there is always that defense, too.
Oklahoma Sooners
I spent the better part of last week appearing on various radio shows, talking about how Bob Stoops’ group was one of the most under-appreciated teams in the country. At the time, it seemed like the right thing to say. Then, as more than a two-touchdown favorite, Oklahoma fell to Texas the week after the Longhorns were absolutely manhandled by TCU. It was an opportunity, on an enormous stage, to confirm that the Sooners belonged. While a back-loaded schedule gives Oklahoma ample time to make a statement and pick up the pieces, this was a grand setback.
If the College Football Playoff Started Today…
Ah, yes. It’s time to play that familiar game and enrage as many people as possible. Using a selection committee of me, here is how my College Football Playoff would look if the season ended right now. (Thank goodness it does not.)
1. Utah Utes
2. Baylor Bears
3. Clemson Tigers
4. Texas A&M Aggies
The Michigan Wolverines Look Like a Playoff Team
Here we are, six weeks into his first season in Ann Arbor, and Jim Harbaugh has his team trending toward the College Football Playoff. Oh, and he’s handling this pressure by quoting The Lion King in press conferences with an enormous tussle against the Michigan State Spartans on deck.
Yes, things are going as planned. Only we didn’t see this developing so quickly. I wrote about this late Saturday night and it really hasn’t settled in since. They’ve shutout three straight teams. They’re playing with confidence. They look like the biggest bully in college football.
By the time this game kicks off, Michigan will have gone almost an entire month without giving up a point.
The progress is evident and remarkable. But perhaps it’s the opportunity ahead—a schedule that suddenly feels shockingly manageable—that puts things in perspective. There is a real possibility Michigan wins the Big Ten with its main competition still waiting to hit its stride.
Beating Michigan State and Ohio State will be no easy task, although both of those games will be played at home. Michigan also plays Rutgers, Penn State, Indiana and Minnesota. While there are a handful of games in there that would qualify as losable, it sets up extremely well for the Wolverines.
And with the other side of the Big Ten suddenly upside down, Michigan would be a substantial favorite against any opponent. Here we are handicapping the Wolverines’ chances in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Premature? Certainly. Somehow appropriate given what we’ve seen? Absolutely.
Baylor and TCU Are About the Only Teams Playing As Expected
Consider this an apology of sorts.
In my initial College Football Playoff Notebook, I was drenched in gasoline in the comment section—a familiar ritual—for not mentioning TCU or Baylor.
There’s a reason for this. At the moment, Baylor and TCU are taking care of business. All the carnage and madness in the distance has not impacted them—not yet at least. Given all of the losses and upsets, the two Big 12 favorites have essentially just followed the script.
Now, that script has not exactly been predictable for TCU. It took a miraculous effort, more specifically, a miraculous Josh Doctson touchdown against Kansas State, to secure a come-from-behind win.
That is the second time in three games TCU has won with late drama. Given all of the injuries this team has endured, it deserves the utmost credit for keeping pace. It has not been easy and it may not be easy all year, but the Horned Frogs have stayed alive.
"I am not trying to be the number one team in the nation. I am just trying to be an undefeated team and now I am trying to beat Iowa State," TCU head coach Gary Patterson told reporters, per the Dallas Morning News' Jose Rodriguez, following the latest victory. "That is all we can control. We cannot control the voters or anybody else. I am tired of hearing about style points. It is hard just to win so we just tried to win."
Baylor is a different football machine entirely at the moment. The scores, stats and numbers are remarkable—albeit against a much weaker schedule. Still, as so many teams have struggled to garner any resemblance of style points, the Bears have a surplus at their disposal.
Both teams will eventually meet. Before that, they will each try to stay unbeaten to set up what would likely be an elimination game. While Baylor seems more equipped to do just that momentarily, kudos to both for exceptional starts.
Can we all be friends again?
Just How High Can The Little Guy Climb?
I’d like to apologize in advance, Toledo. “Little guy” is no way to describe a team currently unleashing your kind of destruction.
But as we near the first release of the playoff Top 25, I can’t help but wonder how the Rockets, currently ranked in the AP Poll with wins over Arkansas and Iowa State, will be viewed.
With each release of the College Football Playoff standings last season, it grew increasingly frustrating to see non-Power Five programs overlooked entirely. It became a weekly ritual of sorts. It was also a very bold and telling statement by the committee, tipping its hand for years to come.
Teams outside of power conferences have their work cut out for them; there’s no other way to shape it. But with Toledo, Houston, Memphis and Bowling Green playing exceptionally well, it will be fascinating to see how these programs are viewed in a year where dominance, especially outside of the top 10, appears to be lacking.
This is not a campaign to put Toledo in the playoff. Instead, it’s a call to the committee to exit its 2014 comfort zone and recognize good football teams exist outside the five established conferences.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
