Auburn vs. Kentucky Complete Game Preview
After a much-needed bye week that featured its fair share of drama, Auburn hits the road this week for a Thursday night matchup against the Kentucky Wildcats out of the SEC East.
The last time the Tigers were in Lexington, Cam Newton and the eventual national champions had to come from 17 down to knock off the Wildcats.
A lot has changed for both programs since that 2010 meeting. Auburn has gotten back to the national title picture, but it has dropped well below expectations so far this season with an 0-2 record in the SEC. Kentucky, however, is going for its second straight 5-1 start under program rebuilder Mark Stoops.
Both Auburn and Kentucky needed overtime to record comeback victories at home against FCS opponents and also had tighter-than-expected wins against Group of Five foes. While Auburn may have the talent edge on paper, Kentucky has a 4-1 record in nothing but one-possession games and will be playing in front of its home fans.
Before we get to the full breakdown of Auburn and Kentucky's midweek matchup, here's all the basic info you need to know:
Date: Thursday, October 15
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Lexington, Kentucky (Commonwealth Stadium)
TV: ESPN
Line: Auburn -2, according to Odds Shark
Auburn Keys to Victory
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Run the dang ball
The increasing intrigue at quarterback for Auburn—more on that later—will put a lot of spotlight on an already attention-grabbing position in head coach Gus Malzahn's offense.
But Auburn has been able to move the ball with decent efficiency on the ground through sophomore running back Peyton Barber, who currently ranks fourth in the SEC in rushing yards per game. Barber has rushed for at least 115 yards in every game he's gotten consistent touches, and he scored all five of the Tigers' touchdowns in their most recent win versus San Jose State.
Malzahn seemed to go back to his 2013 roots against the Spartans with a run-heavy scheme, which is still his best bet away from home in the midst of increasing quarterback drama. Kentucky's 76th-ranked rush defense allowed at least five yards per carry to UL-Lafayette and South Carolina earlier this year. Barber and his supporting cast should get plenty of chances.
Contain the Boom
While Malzahn and defensive coordinator Will Muschamp are known for this signature exclamation, the best-looking "Boom" in this matchup belongs to Kentucky star running back Stanley Williams.
Boom Williams is back as the No. 1 running back for Kentucky this week after missing the overtime win over Eastern Kentucky with a "personal issue," according to the Courier-Journal. The Wildcats' leading rusher from the 2014 season has almost 100 more rushing yards this season than No. 2 back Jojo Kemp despite having fewer carries.
Williams is averaging a stunning 7.3 yards per carry this season, and he got five yards per touch against a stout Florida defense in Week 3. Auburn may have Florida's old head coach, but it definitely doesn't have the same kind of defensive success this season. The Tigers rank 115th nationally in opponent yards per carry this season, making Williams a great challenge heading into Thursday night.
Generate some sort of pressure
Auburn's pass rush has been notably lacking for the second straight season without star defensive end Carl Lawson, with the Tigers only coming up with three sacks since Week 1 against Louisville.
Kentucky hasn't done the best job protecting quarterback Patrick Towles this season. The Wildcats have allowed a little more than three sacks per game in 2015, which ranks No. 117 in the country—slightly ahead of rival Louisville.
If there was ever a time for Auburn to find some pass-rush magic, this is it. The opposing offensive line won't be a dominating matchup by any means, and the Tigers had extra time to tackle this problem in the bye week. Towles is a notoriously up-and-down quarterback who could be forced into some bad mistakes against an Auburn defense that was quite opportunistic against San Jose State.
Kentucky Keys to Victory
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Get the good version of Towles
Which version of Patrick Towles shows up Thursday night will go a long way in determining how successful Kentucky's offense will be against Auburn, even with the return of Williams.
Towles carved up Missouri with two touchdowns and an 81.5 completion percentage, but he also connected on fewer than half of his passes against UL-Lafayette and Florida. He's thrown picks in almost every game this season but has still improved his accuracy, yards per attempt and efficiency rating from 2014.
As Kevin Gemmell of ESPN.com wrote, Towles "continued his Jekyll-and-Hyde ways" with three touchdowns and two interceptions against Eastern Kentucky. When he's on target, Towles has showed he can hurt a defense—even one as good as Missouri. If he misses the mark, he'll give Auburn extra opportunities away from home.
Take care of the football
Ball security needs to be at a premium for Towles and the rest of the Kentucky offense, especially considering Auburn forced four turnovers from SJSU in its last game.
Kentucky was in the negatives in turnover margin for arguably its two worst performances of the season—the low-scoring loss against Florida and its near-disaster against Eastern Kentucky. In their two SEC wins, the Wildcats have only turned the ball over once.
Auburn's struggling offense received a jolt two weeks ago when SJSU gave it opportunities to take advantage of shorter fields and momentum swings. Kentucky needs to limit its own mistakes and make Auburn fight for every single yard Thursday night.
Win the red-zone battles
Kentucky is one of just five teams in the FBS that has scored on every single one of its red-zone trips this season. The Wildcats also rank in the top 10 in touchdown percentage, with three out of every four visits ending in six points.
Auburn, on the other hand, is 105th nationally in red-zone conversions. The Tigers have come up empty on four trips inside the opposition's 20-yard line, and kicker Daniel Carlson has missed attempts from 25 and 26 yards out in their last two games.
The Wildcats need to keep this advantage going by continuing to convert on each scoring opportunity and continuing to frustrate the Auburn offense when it gets near the end zone. Holding the Tigers to short field-goal tries could end up being big-time wins in this matchup.
Auburn Players to Watch
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The quarterbacks
Thursday night could bring another change to the tense quarterback situation for Auburn. As James Crepea of AL.com writes, "all indications during the team's off week point to [former starter Jeremy] Johnson returning to the job he waited two years to inherit."
Even though redshirt freshman Sean White hasn't played poorly during his two starts, Malzahn and offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee have talked up Johnson's improving confidence over the last few days and insisted there is still a battle between the two players. Johnson had a disastrous start to the season, losing the No. 1 job after throwing six interceptions in three games.
There's a chance Auburn could run more of a two-quarterback system between Johnson and White in Lexington, but expect one of them to get a lot more snaps against the Wildcats. Right now, Auburn is hinting at a switch back to Johnson after a few weeks on the bench.
RB Peyton Barber
No matter who starts at quarterback for the Tigers, the offense should continue to feed the ball to Barber early and often.
He's averaged at least five yards per carry in three of Auburn's five games this season and is coming off the best game of his young career against San Jose State. The only team that has been able to slow down Barber is Auburn, as he only received seven carries against LSU. The rest of his games have been excellent.
With Duke Williams now out of the picture for Auburn, it's not a stretch to think the Tigers will focus more on using their playmakers in run-first situations. Barber is the player who can get the tough yards and open things up for players such as Ricardo Louis, Roc Thomas and Kerryon Johnson in space.
LB/DE Cassanova McKinzy
Expect to see a continuation of the Cassanova McKinzy at Buck experiment against Kentucky. The senior middle linebacker had four tackles, three QB hurries and Auburn's only sack while playing that position against San Jose State.
"Everything being brand new for him, I thought he did well," Muschamp said, per Crepea. "Playing blocking schemes and not just doing it in third-down situations, which is what he's done for us already, I thought he did OK."
McKinzy will be tasked with exploiting a Kentucky offensive line that has allowed a good number of sacks this season—but the Tigers have been lacking in that category. Perhaps an off week of practice will get McKinzy going in his second game as a starter at Buck.
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Kentucky Players to Watch
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RB Stanley "Boom" Williams
Williams is a major big-play threat out of the backfield for Kentucky, as the sophomore has averaged at least five yards per carry in eight of his 14 career games—including three of his first four in 2015.
According to Wesley Sinor of AL.com, Muschamp said Williams and No. 2 running back Kemp "can take it the distance at any time." Auburn currently ranks 88th in the country in allowing rushes of 10 or more yards, and that ranking includes the recent bye week.
Auburn had one excellent game against the run against Mississippi State, but SJSU's Tyler Ervin helped the Spartans average nearly five yards per carry two weekends ago. Now another back with a tendency to bust big runs has his sights set on a struggling Tiger defense.
DT Cory Johnson
If you've somehow missed the kind of statistical performances Cory Johnson has been putting up for the Kentucky defense, here's a heads-up: In the last two games, Johnson has recorded 30 tackles from the defensive tackle position.
Johnson was the SEC's Defensive Lineman of the Week after notching 11 tackles in the Wildcats' win over Missouri, and he made tackle after tackle to record 19 against Eastern Kentucky's running game in Week 5. He also added 2.5 tackles for loss, so the 6'3", 300-pound tackle will be more than a handful for the Auburn offensive line.
Auburn's inside running game with Barber will test the strength of Johnson and the rest of the Kentucky defensive front. Right now, no one else in college football is on a bigger roll from the tackle position than the former JUCO recruit.
LB Josh Forrest
Josh Forrest is the other tackle machine for the Kentucky defense, and the senior has done a little bit of everything for the Wildcats from the linebacker position this season.
Forrest leads Kentucky with 49 tackles this season, and he's recorded at least seven in every matchup. In addition to leading the Wildcats in sacks and passes broken up, Forrest has also picked off a pass and forced a fumble in 2015.
The veteran linebacker will be all over the field for Kentucky against Auburn, making plays in a number of ways for an improving defense. Remember his name, because you'll most likely hear it plenty of times Thursday night.
What They're Saying
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Auburn
Head coach Gus Malzahn on the Tigers' offensive pace, per Tom Green of the Opelika-Auburn News:
"We’re at our best when we’re playing fast and we’re getting rhythm and tempo. Rhythm and tempo is a big factor in our off-week. …
That's been probably the biggest issue we've had as far as getting in rhythm or as putting points on the board. We've got that plan during the off-week moving forward, personnel-wise and everything that goes with that, so hopefully that will carryover Thursday night.
"
Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp on Auburn's need for a better pass rush, per Green:
"It’s a trickle-down effect up front as far as some guys winning one-on-ones, some disengages and making a play and giving them a negative down and going second-and-13 instead of second-and-7, second-and-6, second-and-5. That’s a huge difference.
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Wide receiver Melvin Ray on what Auburn needs to prove vs. Kentucky, per Wesley Sinor of AL.com:
"We're not as bad as people think we are. We're actually a pretty good team and we know how good we are across the board. We know what we got talent-wise and ability-wise and so far we just haven't proved it. A lot of people don't think that we're capable of doing the things we want to do in this league, and we really are and we know we are. We just have a lot to prove with this being an SEC game.
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Kentucky
Head coach Mark Stoops on Auburn's offense, per Alex Forkner of 247Sports:
"I think if you look at what Auburn has done over the years their offense is very hard to defend. So it’s by no means very much fun for defensive guys to prepare for that offense. They put a lot of stress on you. You’ve heard me say it time and time again: anybody that uses the quarterback in the run game puts stress on you. Then adding numbers and taking shots down the field and so on. Just like most people could sit here and tell you, they wish they could have had a few throws over, a few things over, but they’re plenty capable and their very well coached and they put a lot of stress on you.
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Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson on running back Boom Williams, per Forkner:
"He's doing great. He's got great energy, great attitude right now. Obviously, we're a better team with him on the field. I think he understands that and I think we understand that. We want him to be on the field as much as possible. We're a lot better with him out there.
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Defensive coordinator D.J. Eliot on facing quick-tempo offenses, per Forkner:
"You have to able to think fast and you have to be able to line up fast. You have to be able to communicate fast. Those are offenses that make a lot of pain on you just not getting lined up. Just not being in the right spots because of their tempo. We’re emphasizing that and our players are doing a good job in practice of handing the tempo and that’s something we expect to do in the game.
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Prediction
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Few would've expected Kentucky to be in a better position in the SEC standings heading into this Thursday night matchup. The Wildcats are still in what could be a wild East division race, depending on how Florida adjusts to the suspension of quarterback Will Grier.
Auburn just needs momentum of some kind before hitting the back half of a brutal schedule. The offense seemed to find some more explosion heading into the bye week, but the dismissal of Williams and the uncertainty at quarterback leaves the passing game with plenty of questions this week.
If Malzahn opts for more of a power-running game—maybe with Johnson running more in his return to the starting job—lanes should open up for the Tigers. Kentucky hasn't done extremely well against the run, even in its close calls against UL-Lafayette and Eastern Kentucky.
Defensively, Auburn has to find a way to contain Williams and Kemp, or else Kentucky could have a big day on offense. Although I don't trust the hot-and-cold Towles to play a mistake-free game, he'll have a much easier time if Auburn's defensive front continues to get bullied against the run and the pass.
Right now, I don't completely trust this Auburn team to get a road win against a quality opponent—especially if Johnson gets the nod at quarterback. An inconsistent run defense taking on a big-play running back doesn't bode well for the Tigers, either. I'll lean toward the home team with plenty of experience at winning close games this season until Auburn shows me something different.
Prediction: Kentucky 27, Auburn 24
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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