College Football Week 7 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
After sinking below 50 percent for the season, I rebounded with modest success in Week 6, going 11-9 against the spread.
I'm still batting under .500—you would still be faring better if you faded me—but a two-game crawl forward has me close and feeling better about my read on the 2015 season.
Week 7 features several tricky numbers, fueled largely by off-field concerns. USC fired head coach Steve Sarkisian, and Florida lost quarterback Will Grier. Before the Trojans and Gators play Notre Dame and LSU, respectively, they will have to get their own affairs in order.
That makes for extra, difficult variables.
As always, feel free to chime in below with your opinions or questions about the picks. I'll explain my rationale beneath each game, but of course we can always dive deeper. Just remember to keep it civil and that no one here hates your team.
The line is our only enemy.
No. 18 UCLA at No. 15 Stanford
1 of 11
The Line: Stanford (-6.5)
Stanford has had UCLA's number, winning seven consecutive games in the series, but weird things happen on Thursday night.
Both teams have lost key players on defense, and while the Cardinal have looked stronger—at least since Week 1—on offense, 6.5 is a big spread to cover in a game between roughly equal teams.
The biggest reason Stanford is ranked right now is a road win at USC, which at the time looked like it could carry a resume. After USC beat Arizona State in Tempe, that win looked even better. But now, after USC lost to Washington, fired head coach Steve Sarkisian and aired its dirty laundry in public, that win looks merely decent.
It's a big game for Bruins QB Josh Rosen.
The Pick: UCLA (+6.5)
No. 13 Ole Miss at Memphis
2 of 11
The Line: Ole Miss (-10.5)
Don't call Memphis a fluke.
The Tigers are 5-0 with wins over Bowling Green and Cincinnati, and although last week's seven-point win over South Florida left much to be desired, it's possible they were looking ahead to Ole Miss.
Speaking of Ole Miss, the Rebels struggled last year to beat Memphis, leading just 7-3 after three quarters. They pulled away with 17 points late, but that game was in Oxford, while this one is at home.
The units in this game have flip-flopped—last year both were defensive juggernauts; this year they both rely on offense—but not so much has changed in terms of overall quality. Head coach Justin Fuente and quarterback Paxton Lynch give the Tigers a chance to hang with anyone.
It's not a slam dunk, but take the points.
The Pick: Memphis (+10.5)
Louisville at No. 11 Florida State
3 of 11
The Line: Florida State (-7)
Louisville remains a hard team to peg.
Its losses have aged in opposite directions: Auburn for the worse, but Clemson and Houston for the better.
The Cardinals came within one score of beating the Tigers, who now rank No. 1 on Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings, and the Cougars just cracked the Associated Press Top 25. There's no shame in losing to either of those teams, especially in close, competitive games.
Florida State, meanwhile, has hardly looked the type to blow teams out. It won by 14 at Boston College, seven at Wake Forest and five at home to Miami. Respectively, those teams rank No. 58, No. 77 and No. 47 on the F/+ ratings.
Louisville ranks No. 32.
The Pick: Louisville (+7)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 17 Iowa at No. 20 Northwestern
4 of 11
The Line: PK
Northwestern looked dreadful at Michigan, losing 38-0 in the Big House, and is now not even favored to beat Iowa at home.
But it's not as if the Wildcats suddenly turned awful. Michigan returned the opening kick for a touchdown, and from there it didn't take long to run away with things. The Wildcats ran into a buzz saw, and while a great team would have put up a fight regardless, plenty of good ones would have wilted against the Wolverines as well.
Northwestern (No. 18) ranks six spots ahead of Iowa (No. 24) on the F/+ ratings, thanks in large part to wins over Stanford (No. 5) and Duke (No. 22). In other words: The Wildcats have already beaten two better teams than the Hawkeyes.
This line is an overreaction to how Northwestern played in Ann Arbor. But don't fall for that; it's still the better team.
The Pick: Northwestern (PK)
No. 7 Michigan State at No. 12 Michigan
5 of 11
The Line: Michigan (-7)
Michigan State is 6-0 straight up but 0-6 against the spread and didn't score the winning touchdown until the final minute at Rutgers.
Rutgers!
Michigan, meanwhile, is the hottest team in the country after shutting out Northwestern, 38-0. Before that, it also shut out Maryland and BYU. According to ESPN, it's the first FBS team in 20 years to post three consecutive shutouts, and two of those games came against teams that were ranked when Michigan played them.
So obviously I'm picking Michigan, right?
Wrong. Seven points is more than I expected the Wolverines to lay; based on recent history, four-to-six points sounded right. Despite the Spartans' struggles and the very real issues causing them, they have still won six of seven meetings with the Wolverines.
They're unlikely to make that seven of eight, but they won't get run off the field. Michigan has dominated its past five opponents defensively, but three of those opponents started freshman quarterbacks, and the other two were UNLV and Maryland.
Connor Cook is an NFL draft prospect, and Michigan State is not UNLV or Maryland.
The Pick: Michigan State (+7)
No. 10 Alabama at No. 9 Texas A&M
6 of 11
The Line: Alabama (-4.5)
Alabama beat Texas A&M by 59 points last season, and the game was even more lopsided than it looked.
Take a second to soak that in.
The Crimson Tide led 52-0 after 35 minutes and then took their foot off the gas. If they really wanted to petrify the Aggies—something most thought Nick Saban wanted after two straight years of looking bad against Johnny Manziel—they could have won that game by 80.
What has A&M done to adjust? First and foremost, it hired defensive coordinator John Chavis, a veteran of playing (and beating) Alabama from his days at LSU.
"I think Chavis has done a really good job there," Saban told reporters at his midweek press conference. "They're not giving up as many points, and they're tougher and sounder in what they're doing."
But are they tough enough and sound enough to stop Alabama's running game? To stop Derrick Henry? They handled Mississippi State two weeks ago, had a bye to rest and have been waiting for the Tide all offseason, but can a young roster handle its emotions in by far its biggest game?
With regard to the F/+ ratings, there's a chasm between No. 1 Clemson, No. 2 Alabama and the rest of the country below them. Texas A&M ranks No. 11, but its raw grade ranks closer to that of No. 41 Nebraska than it does to that of the Crimson Tide.
The score won't be 59-0, but neither will it stay within five points.
The Pick: Alabama (-4.5)
No. 8 Florida at No. 6 LSU
7 of 11
The Line: LSU (-7.5)
Many books have taken this off the board to adjust for Florida quarterback Will Grier's suspension for testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. I see some minus-7.5s out there, but if the number changes drastically, I will come back and provide an update.
Either way, though, I'm picking Florida. Grier was playing well and had the Gators offense clicking, but Treon Harris, for those who forgot, won the starting job in fall camp. His arm is less refined than Grier's, but he's savvy with his legs and is a gamer.
Really, though, this pick has more to do with Florida's defense, a unit that excels at all three levels. South Carolina contained LSU running back Leonard Fournette for most of the game last week—Fournette had one 87-yard touchdown but otherwise averaged 3.7 yards per carry—by stacking the box to stop him.
LSU moved the ball through the air, for once, because receivers Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre won one-on-one matchups on the perimeter. If Florida stacks the box to stop Fournette, it can put Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalen Tabor on Dural and Dupre.
There's a huge difference in quality between those two and South Carolina's cornerbacks. Can Brandon Harris throw in tight windows?
The Pick: Florida (+7.5)
USC at No. 14 Notre Dame
8 of 11
The Line: Notre Dame (-6)
Like the Florida-LSU game, USC at Notre Dame is almost impossible to handicap. I advise you to stay far away.
The firing of Trojans head coach Steve Sarkisian, whom the school relieved so he could seek help for alcohol abuse, has sent a jolt through the program that could galvanize the team in South Bend or deflate the team in South Bend, and there's no good way to tell which one it will be.
Here's what we do know: The last time USC played for interim head coach Clay Helton, it bested Fresno State in the 2013 Las Vegas Bowl, 45-20. We also know Notre Dame played Navy last week, and teams typically struggle after dealing with Midshipmen cut blocks.
USC's first game after firing Lane Kiffin two years ago was a seven-point win over Arizona. Its next game was a four-point loss at Notre Dame (which admittedly came against Irish quarterback Tommy Rees). This program knows how to respond to coaching adversity.
That it does suggests something macro needs to change in the athletic department, but it also suggests the Trojans can stay afloat.
I think.
Again, there's really no good way to tell.
The Pick: USC (+6)
Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State
9 of 11
The Line: Ohio State (-17)
I've backed Ohio State in its first two Big Ten games, confident it would start to get things right, and both times it has burned me.
I'm selling before the stock drops any lower.
There's something clearly rotten in Columbus, and a strong second half against lame-duck former Maryland head coach Randy Edsall does nothing to erase the stench. The Buckeyes are undefeated and No. 1 in the rankings, but they've been far from the No. 1 team.
Penn State, on the other hand, has quietly patched things together since an ugly Week 1 loss at Temple. The Owls are now undefeated, and the Nittany Lions haven't lost since that game. Junior quarterback Christian Hackenberg, whose career has wavered between "surefire No. 1 draft pick" and "total, irredeemable scrub," has improved throughout the season and slowly played his way back into national relevance.
Penn State took last year's game to double overtime, and its defense, while slightly less dominant than last year's, is still one of the Big Ten's best. It can stay within two touchdowns and a field goal.
The Pick: Penn State (+17)
Arizona State at No. 4 Utah
10 of 11
The Line: Utah (-6.5)
Utah failed to cover this line against Cal last week, winning by six in a game it should have won by even less. According to SB Nation's Bill Connelly, its adjusted scoring margin against the Bears was only plus-1.9.
Its previous adjusted scoring margins include a plus-4.4 against Utah State, a plus-2.4 at Fresno State and a minus-1.7 against Michigan. The Utes are 5-0 and rising fast, but their only truly great game came at Oregon; otherwise, they've merely been good.
Arizona State is a tough team to peg but ranks 12 spots higher (No. 26) than Cal (No. 38) on the F/+ ratings and just saved its season with a road win at UCLA. If the Bears can hang close in Salt Like City, the Sun Devils should hang close as well.
The Pick: Arizona State (+6.5)
Other Top 25 Games
11 of 11
No. 21 Boise State (-9.5) at Utah State
Utah State looked rough at the start of the season, placing below the 30th percentile in two of its first three games, according to Connelly. But it has since turned the corner with strong wins over Colorado State (82nd percentile) and Fresno State (90th percentile) and has the pedigree to stay with Boise State. Kent Myers has replaced Chuckie Keeton at quarterback and proved himself an upgrade over the tragically injured senior. Expect a weird one—and a close one—on Friday night.
The Pick: Utah State (+9.5)
No. 24 Houston (-17.5) at Tulane
It's a battle between over-ranked and downright bad. Houston is fine but should not be in the Top 25—only one of its games have ranked above the 65th percentile—while Tulane just lost by 39 points to the actual best team in the AAC, Temple. I dislike the thought of laying this many points on the road, especially when I know the line is inflated, but backing Tulane still sounds foolish. At least I know Houston can play well when it needs to.
The Pick: Houston (-17.5)
West Virginia at No. 2 Baylor (-21.5)
Two bad games moved West Virginia from "trendy Big 12 sleeper" to "21-point underdog." That seems like an overreaction. The Mountaineers looked average at Oklahoma and in an overtime loss to Oklahoma State, but they're still a solid team that actually beat Baylor last season. The Bears will get revenge, but not to the tune of a three-touchdown win.
The Pick: West Virginia (+21.5)
Eastern Michigan at No. 22 Toledo (-28.5)
The spreads keep rising, but Toledo keeps covering. At 4-0-1 against the number, it's one of two FBS teams with no defeats (the other, another MAC team: Central Michigan). At some point the Rockets will regress, but I quickly regretted banking on that against Kent State last week, and I definitely won't against an Eastern Michigan run defense that ranks dead last in the country by a mile. Terry Swanson and Kareem Hunt all day.
The Pick: Toledo (-28.5)
No. 19 Oklahoma (-4.5) at Kansas State
I love this spot for Oklahoma and hate it for Kansas State. The Sooners just blew another Red River game against Texas but should come out strong knowing they still hold their Big 12 fate in their hands, by and large. Kansas State put its all into a gut-punching loss against TCU and might struggle to pick the pieces back up. Consider this more of a gut play than anything.
The Pick: Oklahoma (-4.5)
Boston College at No. 5 Clemson (-15.5)
It's all trending up for Clemson, the No. 1 team on the F/+ ratings, while Boston College just lost at Wake Forest. But don't let that fool you into thinking the Golden Eagles can't play: Their defense is one of the best single units in the country and should keep them closer than expected in Death Valley. This line opened minus-17 but dropped despite 79 percent of bets coming in on the Tigers. That suggests the sharps likes BC too.
The Pick: Boston College (+15.5)
No. 3 TCU (-20) at Iowa State
I've been low on TCU since its injury luck dropped from bad to apocalyptic. Its defense is barely standing and has twice—against Texas Tech and Kansas State—forced the offense over 50 points to win. Iowa State is not a bowl team but has hung close against ranked opponents Iowa and Toledo. Like the Clemson-Boston College game, this matchup has also seen reverse line movement, with the spread dropping from minus-22 despite TCU receiving three-fourths of tickets.
The Pick: Iowa State (+20)
Week 6 Record: 11-8-0 (57.9%)
Overall Record: 51-54-2 (48.6%)
Note: Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press poll. All Week 5 spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All betting percentages (which side has seen more action) via Sports Insights. All advanced stats via Football Study Hall or Football Outsiders.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
