7-Step Drop: College Football's Overrated and Underrated Teams
As hard as it is to believe, we’ve crossed the halfway point of the college football season for most teams in the country and already have six bowl-eligible teams. Despite all of that, how much do we really know about some teams?
The answer is, honestly, not all that much when it comes to the top teams. We’ve seen some good performances, we’ve seen some bad ones, but assessing where some wind up in the pecking order of top teams still won’t be truly figured out until much later than Week 7.
As we hit the downslope of what appears to be another crazy season of college football that is borderline 2007-esque in terms of its topsy-turvy nature, who is standing out? Are there any elite teams? Looking around the country, here’s a stab at who’s overrated, who’s a bit underrated and who we simply don’t know about.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Overrated
Ohio State
AP Ranking: No. 1
The case for: The Buckeyes are the defending national champions, and head coach Urban Meyer has amassed a deep and talented roster in Columbus that still has plenty of NFL scouts drooling. The quarterback situation appears to have been settled (maybe, possibly?), and the defense—although not a dominating unit yet—is showing signs of life.
The case against: Beating up a bad Maryland team that has already fired their head coach isn’t a great benchmark to see if OSU has turned the corner. We seem to always give the team the benefit of the doubt because of their magical run in January, but let’s face it, they’ve been uneven and not all that explosive offensively. It appears the departure of offensive coordinator Tom Herman has held the team back more than previously thought, and we’re six weeks in and still having conversations about the best quarterback going forward.
They probably won’t be truly tested until the final two Big Ten games of the year, but who could have seen folks making the case that Michigan could win the Big Game this season and have a legitimate case against the Buckeyes?
The bottom line: The Buckeyes are No. 1 in the country but have rightfully seen their share of points in the polls (and their general reputation) slide after close games with teams they should be blowing out. There’s something to be said for still winning, but at some point we’re going to have to admit that Ohio State is looking eerily like Florida State did last year.
LSU
AP Ranking: No. 6
The case for: The case is pretty simple: They have the best player in the country in running back Leonard Fournette.
The case against: Outside of Fournette, though...? To be fair, the defense has been a little better than most expected, and new coordinator Kevin Steele seems to have a solid game plan each week.
Then there’s the schedule. The Tigers simply haven’t been tested thanks to a back-loaded group of games. The Mississippi State win could prove to be solid, but that still seems like a slightly better than .500 squad. Their other two SEC wins came at the hands of two of the worst teams in the league, Auburn and South Carolina. Add in a surprising road struggle with Syracuse and failure to put away Eastern Michigan until late, and there are some signs of cracking outside of Fournette.
The bottom line: Fournette is great, but at some point LSU is going to face a team that has the players capable of slowing him down. The quarterback play is still to be determined at this point—LSU has just 10 pass plays over 20 yards despite that soft schedule, the same as North Texas and Army. We’ll find out what Les Miles’ team is made of soon enough, but this doesn’t have the makings of a team that stays in the Top 10 at the end of the year.
Florida State
AP Ranking: No. 11
The case for: The Seminoles are undefeated and have the second-best tailback in the country in Dalvin Cook. The defense is young, but those are still 5-star players back there, and a lot of them are stepping up in crunch time. Plus, quarterback Everett Golson has done a relatively fantastic job of taking care of the ball.
The case against: The offensive line has had issues, and the team is winning ugly and winning late. Outside of Cook, who has stepped up when the team needs a big play? That list is a short one.
The bottom line: The Seminoles receive some benefit of the doubt in the polls because of their name recognition, and the fact that they are in the ACC during a down year helps tremendously. Sure, they can beat Clemson, but the Noles look like a team that will be 10-2 at worst with their best win being against an average Louisville team thanks to a soft schedule.
Oklahoma State
AP Ranking: No. 16
The case for: The Cowboys have risen all the way up into the Top 20 and have one of the best defensive players in the country in defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, who has been an absolute beast. There are a lot of skill position players who can make you miss too.
The case against: This is still a somewhat young team, and that 6-0 record has obscured the way the Cowboys have won some of their games. Outside of a blowout against a bad UTSA squad, they haven’t won comfortably this year. They struggled against Central Michigan while narrowly beating out both Kansas State and West Virginia (in overtime, no less). The offense also turns the ball over way too often.
The bottom line: This is a Top 20 team in name only thanks to a well set-up schedule. Can the Cowboys still make noise in the Big 12? Of course, but the on-field product doesn’t match up to the league’s top-tier teams.
Underrated
Iowa
AP Ranking: No. 17
The case for: The Hawkeyes are not a team to blow opponents out of the water based on their style of play. However, there is some great (and cautious) optimism at Iowa right now based on the team’s solid defense and knack for coming up with big plays when they’re needed. Running back Jordan Canzeri has been terrific carrying the ball, and quarterback C.J. Beathard is undefeated as a starter.
The case against: Here goes the usual "who have they played?" line. Beating tough teams like Pittsburgh and Wisconsin (who both have solid defenses) isn’t anything to sniff at, but the bottom line is this week’s showdown with Northwestern could decide the Big Ten West Division. Injuries are also starting to creep up.
The bottom line: Head coach Kirk Ferentz has plenty of detractors (for good reason), but he’s done a great job this year in getting the team to 6-0. They’re tough, they play defense, but there’s an element of explosion in the offense that hasn’t been there in past years. If they beat Northwestern, this team should be floating on the fringe of the Top 10.
Boise State
AP Ranking: No. 21
The case for: The Broncos are back to doing what they normally do: running roughshod over opponents. The defense has proved to be the legitimately good unit we all thought it could be coming into the season, and the play of freshman quarterback Brett Rypien has given the offense another gear. That BYU loss doesn’t look all that bad in retrospect, either.
The case against: Boise State remains in the mix to capture the Group of Five bid and are playing just as well as fellow contenders Houston, Memphis and Temple. What sets them back is their schedule. Two Power Five wins are nice to have (and the Washington one is looking better and better), but the Mountain West is not a great league this year, which means Boise State won’t have many opportunities to show that they’re a good team.
The bottom line: Sometimes you’ll find a loss sparks a team and helps set them on an upward trajectory. That appears to be the case with the blue-turf squad. They’ve won four straight by an average of 45 points and can easily extend that streak the rest of the way. This is a good team no matter how you slice it.
USC
AP Ranking: None
The case for: This is still the most talented team in the Pac-12. Quarterback Cody Kessler is a veteran leader, and freshman running back Ronald Jones II has some Reggie Bush qualities in him. Wideouts Adoree Jackson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are game-breakers, and there are a ton of other weapons on both sides of the ball.
The case against: Well, where do we start? The murky situation surrounding head coach Steve Sarkisian will be a storyline that will hover over the program for the rest of the year. The offensive line is shaky at best, and the defense has some great players, though it is still suspect up front. You also have no idea what team you’re getting from week to week.
The bottom line: The Trojans are capable of beating everyone left on their schedule, including Notre Dame this week. They’re also plenty capable of losing to everyone left on their schedule. The recent drama and bad play on Thursday night could rightfully serve as a wake-up call to a team that still has a lot of good players.
No Idea
Florida
AP Ranking: No. 8
The case for: Jim McElwain may win every Coach of the Year award at this point. Even the most passionate Gators fans thought there wouldn’t be much more than an average bowl game out of this group, and yet here we are. The offensive line is still young but has been way better than expected. The defense has remained salty. Running the ball, playing tough defense, creating turnovers and making key offensive plays will win a lot of ballgames for anybody.
The case against: Well, Florida still does have that young offensive line and a freshman quarterback, so some regression to the mean should be expected as teams start to figure them out and game-plan accordingly. This same group still struggled to beat East Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee, plus they hadn’t played a big game outside of the Swamp until last week.
The bottom line: Are the Gators the SEC East favorites? They sure are. That doesn’t mean they’re a Top 10 team, though, but we'll find out soon enough if their record has come through smoke and mirrors or something else.
Texas A&M
AP Ranking: No. 9
The case for: The Aggies have a ferocious defensive line, and the improvement defensive coordinator John Chavis has brought is very tangible. The run game has been OK, but the passing game is ahead of schedule with Kyle Allen starting to look better by the week. This team is plenty capable of winning the SEC West.
The case against: The competition hasn’t been the stiffest in the country, but the team has taken care of business. They’re still somewhat untested, and we won’t really find out how good they are until the next few weeks conclude.
The bottom line: Texas A&M received a first-place vote in the AP poll based on…what? It’s a good team, for sure, but they’re going to have to earn their Top 10 ranking this week. If they lose to Alabama, just how good are the Aggies?
Alabama
AP Ranking: No. 10
The case for: The Crimson Tide defense is no joke—it's extremely tough to consistently move the ball against them. The play of several key freshmen have contributed to that, but the bottom line is one side of the ball looks like it has the qualities of a championship-caliber unit.
The case against: Well, as good as the defense has been, the offensive has been anything but consistent. That starts at quarterback, where Jake Coker has certainly made some big plays in key situations. However, he has also turned the ball over way too often.
The bottom line: The Tide are back in the Top 10, because Nick Saban is Nick Saban and they have outrecruited everybody they’ve faced. There’s a lot of talent on this team even if it’s not all playing cohesively at the halfway point of the season. Still, the one spread offense team they faced with good talent beat them at home, and it remains to be seen if Coker can be the hand that guides them to Atlanta.
Baylor
AP Ranking: No. 2
The case for: The stats all say the Bears are legitimate. The final score lines all say the Bears are legitimate. The offense is easily the best in the country, and even some of the defensive issues they’ve had questions about have started to work themselves out.
The case against: Well, it’s pretty simple: Baylor hasn’t really played anybody. Their stiffest test thus far was against Texas Tech, and they won’t play a team in the top third of the Big 12 until mid-November. Baylor looks the part, sure, but until crunch time comes we can’t be certain.
The bottom line: Baylor plays a one-game season, essentially. Beat TCU, and you’re in the playoff. We’ve seen others stumble in the wild Big 12, however, and that’s not to say the Bears won’t either, but it’s looking more and more like a one-game season.
Stanford
AP Ranking: No. 15
The case for: The Cardinal are ranked 15th in the country ahead of their Thursday night showdown against UCLA, and that sounds about right. The offense has suddenly been opened up, quarterback Kevin Hogan has been the good version of himself and not the turnover-prone one, and the defense is once again one of the best units out West. Christian McCaffrey isn’t a bell cow running back, but he’s very effective in racking up all-purpose yardage.
The case against: That USC win doesn’t look quite as good right now, and neither does the Northwestern loss. The defensive line is still very, very thin, and the offense has been putting up numbers against some suspect opponents.
The bottom line: Stanford is the class of the Pac-12 North almost by default. We’ll really find out what the team is made of with UCLA coming to town, but the bottom line is we really don’t know right now. They could win the Pac-12 or wind up struggling down the stretch.
Stats of the Week
• Georgia is fourth to last in the FBS in third-down conversion percentage (29 percent). They’ve only converted 18 times all year (dead last in FBS) on third down.
• Oregon wide receiver Charles Nelson started at safety for the Ducks last week...and promptly led the team in tackles in a loss to Washington State. According to GoDucks.com, he’s believed to be the first two-way starter since Mel Renfro back in 1961-63.
• Oregon had been 27-0 over the past two seasons when leading after the third quarter and, according to the Oregonian's Andrew Greif, had been 100-0 with a 10-point lead until their loss to the Cougars.
• Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett recorded the first three-touchdown game of his career. He was the backup, by the way. The Buckeyes also had six red-zone touchdowns against Maryland after having just six total all season coming into the game.
• Per the Horned Frogs’ sports information director, FBS teams were 241-0 this season when holding an 18-point second-half lead prior to TCU’s comeback win against Kansas State.
• How good has Texas Tech’s offensive line been? The Red Raiders lead the nation in pass attempts (296) but have allowed just two sacks.
• LSU running back Leonard Fournette leads the country in rushing by 148 yards, despite playing in one fewer game than anybody within 200 yards of him.
•Among the teams worse than Kansas at scoring in the red zone (76.9 percent): Auburn (76.5), Arkansas (64) and Vanderbilt (60).
• After going 50-of-74 against Oregon, Washington State QB Luke Falk is at 39.2 completions per game. The NCAA single-season record was set by another Mike Leach QB, Graham Harrell, who is actually on the Wazzus staff.
Quote of the Week
"If we lose this week, it ain't because of 'Clemsoning,'" Tigers coach Dabo Swinney said in an animated response when asked about the phrase.
Tweet(s) of the Week
Play of the Week
Sound from Saturday
Pre-Snap Reads
Alabama at Texas A&M
Is this the biggest game in head coach Kevin Sumlin’s career? It just might be, and he has the team to deliver another signature win over Alabama. Kyle Field should be rocking like nobody’s business on Saturday, and defensive end Myles Garrett could have plenty of fun against a Tide offensive line that has not held up against lesser competition.
UCLA at Stanford
The Cardinal have owned this series over the past few seasons, so should we expect anything different Thursday night? The Bruins have had a chance to regroup after their first loss of the year and should be very competitive in this one, but it’s still tough to see UCLA’s interior defense being able to slow down the Stanford offense enough to get the win. Don’t expect anything less than a close, hard-fought game.
Michigan State at Michigan
If you want to see what football was like in the Big Ten a few decades ago, here’s your game of the week. The Spartans have played down to their competition and haven’t looked sharp at all this season until the final few minutes. Rivalry games have a funny way of changing things, though, so don’t be surprised if this is a close one with the home team pulling it out thanks to a defensive touchdown.
Bryan Fischer covers college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.
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