Florida vs. LSU Complete Game Preview
It should have been a happier week in Gainesville.
Florida is 6-0 and 4-0 in SEC play. It's beaten Kentucky, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri in short order. It has risen from preseason afterthought to No. 8 in the Associated Press rankings—from happy to win eight games to a College Football Playoff Contender. This week should have been a celebration.
But instead, the week has turned somber. Redshirt freshman quarterback Will Grier, the catalyst behind Florida's offense, revealed he took a banned over-the-counter substance and will miss the next year on suspension. Week 1 starter Treon Harris will take the reins moving forward, starting this week at No. 6 LSU.
Now head coach Jim McElwain has some coaching ahead of him. How does he inspire his team to play? How does he tweak the game plan for Harris? How does he, or for that matter anyone, contain LSU running back Leonard Fournette, the best player in college football?
Here's a quick look at what to expect.
Date: Saturday, October 17
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Tiger Stadium; Baton Rouge, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
Line: LSU -9.5, according to Odds Shark
Florida Keys to Victory
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Respond to Adversity
The loss of Grier was unexpected and devastating. The drop-off from Grier to Harris isn't massive in a vacuum, but the mental toll of losing a starting quarterback—especially one who was playing so well for an offense that was so desperate for quarterback play—could derail Florida's season.
How will the Gators rally around Harris? Will they be motivated or deflated by the loss? A lot depends on McElwain, whose most important coaching this week will take place behind the scenes.
Don't Let Fournette Break the Big One
South Carolina stacked the box to stop Fournette last week, and for the most part it worked. He took 19 of 20 carries for 71 yards and no touchdowns. Unfortunately, the one time South Carolina let its guard down, Fournette burned it for a crushing 87-yard score. He now leads the country with six runs of 40-plus yards. The Gators must slow him down like South Carolina but also never let their guard down to allow that back-breaking run.
Another Fast Start
The Gators have started fast, especially on offense, in each of the past two weeks. They scored a pair of first-quarter touchdowns against both Ole Miss and Missouri, and then they rode those early leads to comfortable wins. This team is constructed to play from ahead, where it can dial up the running game, limit what it needs from the passing game and lean on the defense to salt games away. It can also win from behind, as it proved against Tennessee, but converting five of five fourth downs without Grier is unrealistic.
LSU Keys to Victory
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Create Big Plays
Florida's defense excels down by down but struggles to prevent big plays. The Gators rank No. 86 in the country in isolated points per play—No. 99 against the run and No. 57 against the pass. Fournette can gash that front as he has all season, but even Brandon Harris and the passing game should find room to operate over the top. When those opportunities arise, LSU must take advantage. Otherwise, it could finish below 20 points.
Rattle Treon Harris
LSU lacks the dominant defensive line of the John Chavis era, but it still holds an advantage in the trenches. Florida's offensive line has punched above its weight class, but especially with Grier out of the lineup, it will struggle to contain the Tigers' rush.
New defensive coordinator Kevin Steele would do well to attack the backfield and make Treon Harris uncomfortable. So long as the defense keeps contain and stops Harris from improvising, all pressure will be good pressure. This is, after all, the biggest start of Harris' career.
Beat Man Coverage
Florida has a strong front seven, but even the Gators can't stop Fournette without stacking the box. That puts an onus on their secondary to win one-on-one matchups. South Carolina couldn't do that, and quarterback Brandon Harris, despite early struggles, posted career-high numbers.
Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalen Tabor are two of the best cornerbacks in the country and can lock up receivers Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre. If they do, LSU's offense is in trouble.
Florida Players to Watch
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QB Treon Harris
All eyes will be on Harris, Florida's Week 1 starter, to prove he's not a drop-off after Grier. Prior to the Ole Miss game, McElwain still sounded as if Harris had a shot to win the job, per Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel, so he should, theoretically, play at or near Grier's level. It's been an up-and-down career for the sophomore, who has shown flashes of good play and bad play and twice has been suspended the past two seasons. Saturday presents a massive opportunity for him.
CB Jalen Tabor
LSU brands itself "DB U," but that's how Tabor fancies Florida, per Thompson. He put his money where his mouth was last season, when as a true freshman he posted seven tackles and a pick against the Tigers, and he's looked even better in year two. He, along with Harris, missed the Tennessee game with a suspension, but when he and Hargreaves III have shared the field, it's always been magic. LSU's young passing game has its work cut out for it.
RB Kelvin Taylor
Even with Grier in the lineup, Florida runs a pro-style, ball-control offense that relies on establishing Kelvin Taylor. The son of Gators legend Fred Taylor has played a strong past three games, logging 284 yards and four touchdowns on 74 carries against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri. He's a powerful inside runner whose role becomes doubly important with Harris rather than Grier under center. How he performs on first and second down—i.e., how he sets up Harris for third down—might well decide this game.
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LSU Players to Watch
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RB Leonard Fournette
How could it be anyone else? Fournette leads the country with 204.4 rushing yards per game—46 more than his closest competition, Florida State running back Dalvin Cook. Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee called the Heisman Trophy "Fournette's to lose," which is barely a hot take considering how he's carried LSU's offense. Florida presents his toughest opponent of the season, but last year he ran for 143 yards and two scores against the Gators in Gainesville.
QB Brandon Harris
LSU entered last week with the worst non-triple option passing numbers in the FBS. South Carolina knew that and dared Harris to throw, but he was up to the task. The sophomore completed 18 of 28 passes for 228 yards and two touchdowns against the Gamecocks after going 33-of-61 with 382 yards and two touchdowns in the first four games combined.
Can he repeat that performance against the Gators? If he can, LSU will be sitting pretty.
S Rickey Jefferson
Rickey Jefferson is a boom-or-bust player on LSU's defense—the type who sells out to create negative plays but also gets caught cheating. To wit: He tipped a pass that led to an interception last week, but he also lost track of receiver Pharoh Cooper on a long touchdown. Last year against the Gators, he recorded a tackle for loss and an interception, and his reactiveness might force Treon Harris into mistakes. It just also might give the Florida quarterback room to operate.
What They're Saying
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Florida
McElwain on the substance that Grier took, per Mark Long of the Associated Press:
"You and I can both go get it. Anyone in this room can. Anybody in this country can. The mistake is, and the lesson for whoever out there, make sure—just like we educate our guys now—you check with your medical staff before you put anything in your body.
Doesn't matter [what he took]. Cough medicine. You have to know what you're putting in your body. Will admitted he didn't do it. I think that speaks for him. He's not putting it on anybody else. He's a stand-up guy. That's how he played the game and plays the game. He'll be back.
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McElwain on Harris replacing Grier, per Chris Harry of GatorZone.com:
"Now it’s Treon’s opportunity to take the reins and run with it. He’ll do a great job. We have two really good quarterbacks and have a package for either one. This is not an excuse. It happened. Things happen in life, and if you want to use it as an excuse, so be it. But that’s not what we’re going do. We’re going to have a great week of practice, we’re going to play our tails off against one of the best teams in the country on their turf, and this ought to be a blast, man.
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LSU
Head coach Les Miles on whether Florida losing Grier affects how he'll prepare his team, per quotes released by the school:
"Most of the time, the second-team quarterback can operate the offense as-is. So we would expect that their best plays or their core plays would be the same. They have a very talented running back, a very capable running game. I would guess that that won't change. And I would suggest that the passing would be the same. It would just be a different quarterback doing it, and knowing the talent there, there will be enough talent to field a very capable quarterback.
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Miles on offseason Twitter spats between Florida and LSU players, per the same source:
"I'm glad you mentioned that or at least re-upped my memory on that. Certainly, there's no reason for Twitter. The game is always played on the field, not in the media chat rooms. So it would be my guess that our guys would recognize that. I'll see them at 3:00 this afternoon, and they'll hear it again.
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Prediction
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Even minus Grier, Florida will hang with LSU and have a chance to win late. That would have been the case regardless.
Losing Grier might cost the Gators a few first downs, and maybe even a few big plays, but that doesn't discount their defense. Florida is sound at all three levels and can contain Fournette (as well as possible) while forcing Brandon Harris to make difficult throws.
That minor drop from Grier to Treon Harris might cost Florida the win, but Treon will make enough plays to stay close, cover the line and provide short-term hope in Gainesville. Everything will be all right.
It's just less all right than before.
Prediction: LSU 20, Florida 16
Note: Unless otherwise cited, all advanced stats via Football Study Hall.
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