College Football Teams Who Are Fool's Gold in Race for Playoff
Power-conference teams with undefeated records or one acceptable loss are considered College Football Playoff contenders—and rightfully so.
The first type, the undefeateds, control their own fates and will make the top four if they win the rest of the games. The second type, the one-lossers, control less of their fates but still stand a chance of getting there.
However, certain teams in the the playoff discussion are more iron pyrite than real, pure gold. For reasons such as injury depletion, turnover luck or whom they've played so far compared with whom they still must play, they look like stronger contenders than they are.
Sound off below and let us know where you disagree.
Iowa
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People don't mention Iowa as a playoff favorite, but at 6-0 and No. 17 in the AP rankings, it has started earning mention as a candidate.
The Hawkeyes lack a signature win but have beaten solid teams such as Pittsburgh, Wisconsin and Illinois. Head coach Kirk Ferentz, a bastion of Big Ten conservatism, has opened the playbook and taken chances to make his team more palatable.
So far, the results have been awesome.
But how high is the ceiling in Iowa City? Can Iowa really finish 13-0? Yeah it won at Wisconsin, but it needed roughly 10 Joel Stave turnovers to get there. Based on the box score of that game, it would have lost 71 percent of the time, per SB Nation's Bill Connelly.
The schedule before the Big Ten Championship Game is navigable—if it wins at Northwestern next week, its hardest remaining games are at home against Minnesota and at Indiana and Nebraska—but the best version of this team looks more like a challenger than a contender. Think Duke when it played in the 2013 ACC Championship Game.
That seems like a fair best-case scenario.
Michigan State
2 of 5
Michigan State has been impossible to diagnose.
The Spartans are 6-0 straight up but 0-6 against the spread, which indicates their failure to meet expectations. According to the numbers, they have played worse than they should have each week.
This puts MSU fans in an interesting position where they complain about the team to each another but defend it to national sportswriters, a point Dan Wolken of USA Today retweeted from one of his followers. There's clearly something wrong in East Lansing, but apparently only Spartans fans can talk about it.
"I think we’re winning," head coach Mark Dantonio told reporters Saturday, echoing (or maybe incepting) his loyal fans. "The bottom line is that we’re winning."
But how long does that stay the bottom line?
Here's what we know empirically: MSU entered last week No. 34 on the S&P+ ratings, and then nearly lost at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights entered No. 110 on those ratings, so I assume the Spartans will fall. It's playing like a top-50 team but ranked like a top-five team, which is largely based on preseason perception.
At some point, though, poor play becomes poor results. This roster has been drilled by injuries and now plays a red-hot Michigan team.
At this rate, it won't last in the playoff race for long.
Oklahoma State
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Oklahoma State advanced to 6-0 with an overtime win at West Virginia and is now thinking "Why not us?" in the wide-open Big 12, as Bleacher Report's Justin Ferguson wrote Saturday.
The answer to that question lies in precedent for undefeated Big 12 teams with back-loaded schedules. The most recent analog for Oklahoma State is the 2013 Texas Tech Red Raiders, which opened 7-0 and peaked at No. 10 before losing five straight games against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor and Texas—the class of the conference.
The Cowboys will also start 7-0 after beating Kansas next week, but from there they play at Texas Tech and have home dates with TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma. Because their three hardest games come at home, it's tempting to throw them into the playoff discussion, but this team nearly lost to Kansas State's fifth-string quarterback—converted wide receiver Kody Cook—in Stillwater two weeks ago. If not for a phantom first-down call, it might well have lost that game.
Mike Gundy's team has been a nice story and could make a real run next season. But for now it is pure fool's gold.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Stanford
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Stanford's Week 1 loss at Northwestern looked fine before Saturday, but now it looks a little dubious. The Wildcats lost 38-0 at Michigan, and although they're still a quality team, that hurts.
USC's home loss to Washington threw another wrench in Stanford's resume. The Cardinal rose back into the rankings and playoff discussion after beating the Trojans in the Coliseum four weeks ago. If Washington did the same, how hard could it be?
Stanford's offense has found a rhythm under quarterback Kevin Hogan and running back Christian McCaffery, but the former has been plagued by inconsistency since taking over as a freshman three years ago. The defense has coalesced under a wonderful defensive coaching staff, but attrition along the defensive line, which at this point has basically no depth, should eventually cost the Cardinal at least one more game.
This team is good because it's always good, but it's not a real playoff contender. 9-3 or 10-2 seems like its ceiling.
TCU
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TCU has escaped late deficits at Texas Tech and Kansas State, outscoring middle-of-the-pack Big 12 teams and making big plays late.
Quarterback Trevone Boykin, running back Aaron Green and wide receiver Josh Doctson are the best offensive triplet in college football, but a defense ravaged by losses has asked even them to bear too much weight.
Average competition has exposed the Horned Frogs defense as one of the biggest liabilities of any playoff contender in the country. Improved competition such as Baylor and Oklahoma—even after Saturday's loss to Texas—should take that one step further.
It's a shame TCU suffered such poor injury luck, because this offense is something special. I'd love to be wrong and watch Boykin keep the magic rolling, but it doesn't look like that will be the case.
Kansas State made moving the ball look easy.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
