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Royals vs. Astros: Keys for Each Team to Win ALDS Game 4

Karl BuscheckOct 11, 2015

With the Kansas City Royals staring at elimination, the good news for the club is that Yordano Ventura has been here before.

Last fall, the electric right-hander spun a gem in Game 6 of the Fall Classic to force a decisive showdown with the San Francisco Giants at Kauffman Stadium.

The bad news for the Royals is that Lance McCullers—the starter who will be taking the mound for the Houston Astros—has been lights-out at Minute Maid Park.

In 10 starts at the Juice Box, the right-hander has been downright stingy, reeling off a 1.86 ERA and limiting the opposition to a .188 batting average.

While McCullers hasn't pitched since Oct. 4, Ventura will be working on three days' rest. Then again, fatigue shouldn't be a major factor for Ventura, as he threw just 42 pitches in his Game 1 start, which was interrupted by a rain delay.

As the Royals aim to extend their season and the Astros angle to punch the club's ticket to the American League Championship Series for the first time since 2005, here are the biggest keys for each side.

Key No. 1 for the Royals: Strike Early Against Lance McCullers

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McCullers is going to be amped up when he takes the mound in Game 4. Just ask the rookie, per Jane Lee of MLB.com:

"

My biggest thing is trying to channel that emotion for the greater good. I want to use that energy to my advantage rather than my disadvantage. I get a little fired up sometimes. But it keeps me in the game, I think it pumps the guys up, so as long as I can just use that to my advantage, then that's really what it's there for.

"

After digging through the numbers, it's clear to see the Royals' best chance of doing damage against the 22-year-old is to get to the righty before he settles into the flow of the game.

First inning: 5.91 ERA, second inning: 3.86 ERA, third inning: 2.14 ERA, fourth inning: 1.71 ERA, fifth inning: 3.72 ERA, sixth inning: 2.77 ERA, seventh inning: 1.29 ERA, eighth inning: 0.00 ERA, ninth inning: 0.00 ERA. 

Unfortunately for McCullers, Kansas City has made a habit of jumping out to fast starts throughout the course of the 2015 season.

The AL Central champs ranked second in the bigs in average (.310) in the first inning and checked in at No. 4 (.263) in the second. During those early frames, Lorenzo Cain has been the most dangerous Royal, as he leads the way with a .354 average in the first.

Key No. 1 for the Astros: Another Big Game for Colby Rasmus

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Every October, an unexpected stars emerge.

This year, Colby Rasmus is taking on that role for the Astros. In his first four games of the postseason, the outfielder is hitting .500 (5-for-10) with three bombs. In Houston's Game 3 win, the lefty crushed a single that actually clattered off the roof of Minute Maid Park, as you can see in this MLB.com video.

The Game 4 matinee is setting up to be yet another great day at the office for the free-agent to-be, who is boosting his offseason price tag with every swing. In 2015, Rasmus logged an .891 OPS during day games and also connected on 12 jacks in just 141 at-bats. He also hit 18 of his 25 homers off righties.

Key No. 2 for the Royals: Rely on the Heat to Overpower the Astros

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Ventura throws absolute gas, and that could be a big problem for the all-or-nothing Astros, who were second in MLB in home runs and strikeouts during the regular season.

According to Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com, Houston hit just .192 against heaters of more than 95 mph, which was the worst mark in the majors. This season, Ventura's four-seam and two-seam fastballs both clocked in at a speed of 96.8 mph, per MLB.com's Statcast.

Per the calculations of BrooksBaseball.net, Ventura uncorked a fastball 37 percent of the time. Based on Houston's habit of whiffing at the cheese, Ventura should up the usage of both his two- and four-seamers.

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Key No. 2 for the Astros: A Quiet Afternoon from the Pen

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Including the AL Wild Card Game, the Astros are 3-1 in postseason play. Houston's bullpen deserves a significant amount of credit for the squad's success so far.

In those three wins, the relief crew has allowed just a single earned run in eight innings of work. In the lone loss, Oliver Perez and Will Harris both gave up a run, with the latter taking the loss.

With the Astros on the verge of the ALCS, Tony Sipp has been the MVP of the bullpen. The veteran left-hander, who was a 45th-round pick way back in 2004, has pitched in all four games and has yet to give up a hit.

In order to get past the reigning AL champs and into the next round, the Astros will need Sipp, Harris and closer Luke Gregerson to silence the Royals in the late innings of Game 4.

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.

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