Cubs vs. Cardinals: Keys for Each Team to Win NLDS Game 2

If Game 1 sets the tone for an entire series, the St. Louis Cardinals sent a serious message Friday night when they dominated the Chicago Cubs 4-0.

John Lackey continued his brilliance at Busch Stadium as he allowed just two hits over 7.1 scoreless innings, and the one-two punch of Kevin Siegrist and Trevor Rosenthal slammed the door on a three-hit shutout.

The Cubs offense will look to get back on track Saturday against left-hander Jaime Garcia, who has been equally impressive at home this year.

They counter with right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who like many of the young Cubs in the past few days will be making his postseason debut.

Falling behind 0-2 in a best-of-five series is often a death sentence, so Game 2 will be a big one for both sides as the Cubs look to even things up and the Cardinals look to take complete control.

With first pitch scheduled for 5:37 p.m. ET on TBS, here is a look at three keys to victory for each team to win Game 2 of the National League Division Series.

Cubs: Work the Count

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs struck out a ton during the regular season—more than any other team in baseball, in fact—with 1,518 total. The second-place Astros had 1,392 strikeouts.

True to form, they fanned 10 times in Game 1, including three times in the ninth inning against closer Trevor Rosenthal.

However, they also paced the National League with 567 walks on the year, for an average of 3.5 free passes per game.

That all added up to an MLB-best 3.98 pitches per plate appearance, according to FanGraphs, and that ability to make a pitcher work and see a lot of pitches served the team well all season.

The Cubs seemingly abandoned that approach in Game 1, though, and John Lackey needed just 86 pitches to get through his 7.1 scoreless innings of work as a result.

Chalk it up to nerves and being overanxious, but after making 10 outs in at-bats where they saw three pitches or fewer in Game 1, they'll need to return to a more patient approach for Game 2.

Cubs: Kyle Hendricks Continuing His Recent Run of Success

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The one-two punch of Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester was terrific for the Chicago Cubs down the stretch, but the question remained as to who would be the No. 3 starter once the playoffs began.

Early on, it looked like Jason Hammel would be the guy, as he went 5-2 with a 2.76 ERA in his first 11 starts of the season.

However, in his last 14 starts, he's posted a 5.10 ERA and turned in just two quality starts, and at this point even giving him the ball in a potential Game 4 seems like a risky proposition.

That has opened the door for Kyle Hendricks to be the Game 2 starter, and the 25-year-old will make his postseason debut with momentum on his side.

"I think he's been really sharp," manager Joe Maddon told reporters after naming him as the No. 2 starter. "The fact that he could put the ball on the ground matters a lot, too, keep the ball out of the air. He's just been very sharp, so we just chose to do that."

Sharp indeed, as he allowed just seven hits and three earned runs in 18 innings of work over his final three starts, lowering his season ERA from 4.22 to 3.95 in the process.

And as Maddon mentioned, he kept the ball on the ground with a 51.3 percent ground-ball rate on the year. That was good for 10th-best among qualified NL starters, according to FanGraphs.

Hendricks faced the Cardinals just once during the regular season back on May 5, allowing six hits and four earned runs in five innings of work for a no-decision.

Cubs: Overcoming Struggles Against Left-Handed Pitching

Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports

The Cubs did not hit left-handed pitching well at all during the regular season, and they will be facing a tough southpaw Saturday in Jaime Garcia.

Here's where they ranked in the majors against left-handed pitching:

• BA: .238 (26th)
• OBP: .319 (16th)
• SLG: .372 (23rd)
• HR: 29 (25th)
• RBI: 149 (23rd)
• R: 153 (23rd)

Four key hitters in Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Starlin Castro did manage to put up solid numbers against lefties:

• Fowler: .326 BA, .865 OPS, 7 2B, 4 HR
• Rizzo: .294 BA, .881 OPS, 11 2B, 6 HR
• Bryant: .245 BA, .797 OPS, 6 2B, 6 HR
• Castro: .281 BA, .643 OPS, 7 2B, 0 HR

However, the rest of the roster proved consistently inept against southpaws, with Addison Russell (.156 BA, .527 OPS) and Kyle Schwarber (.143 BA, .481 OPS) in particular struggling mightily.

With Garcia earning the start and Kevin Siegrist waiting to pitch the eighth inning in the setup role, the Cubs will need to find some way to break through against left-handers if they hope to even the series in Game 2.

Cardinals: Jaime Garcia Taking Advantage of a Home Start

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

As we just mentioned, the Cubs do not hit left-handed pitching well, so Game 2 starter Jaime Garcia already has a distinct advantage.

However, he'll also have the luxury of pitching at home, where he's been as tough as any pitcher in the league this year since returning from the disabled list.

Garcia once again battled injuries early in the season, as he was limited to just 20 starts, but he was healthy down the stretch and all told went 10-6 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 129.2 innings of work.

Those are solid numbers overall, but they really jump off the page when you look at how he performed at Busch Stadium.

In 10 starts at home, the 29-year-old went 5-2 with a 1.70 ERA, 0.888 WHIP and a .203 opponent batting average.

His home/road splits were particularly dramatic over the final month of the season, as he went 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA in three starts at home and 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA in three starts on the road.

He did not face the Cubs at all during the regular season this year, but he's 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA in 36 innings spanning five starts and one relief appearance against them in his career.

Cardinals: A Big Game from Matt Holliday

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

It's been a trying season for Matt Holliday, but if the Cardinals are going to make a run at a World Series title, they will no doubt need him to make a positive contribution this postseason.

With 13 home runs and 37 RBI in 69 career postseason games, Holliday has certainly made his mark in October before.

However, he's still working his way back from a quad injury that cost him two disabled-list stints during the regular season and limited him to 73 total games.

The Cardinals activated the 35-year-old from the DL for the second time Sept. 17, and he was just 4-for-22 with three extra-base hits down the stretch.

He was in the lineup hitting in the No. 3 spot in Game 1, and he came through early with an RBI single in the bottom of the first to give the Cardinals an early lead before finishing the night 1-for-4.

He'll look to build on that in Game 2 and should have a good chance to do so with a solid track record of success against Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks.

It's a small sample size, but he's 6-for-12 with two home runs against the second-year hurler, including 2-for-3 in his lone start against the team earlier this year.

Cardinals: Avoid Using Trevor Rosenthal After 21-Pitch Outing in Game 1

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Trevor Rosenthal pitched the ninth inning in Game 1, allowing a hit and a walk but striking out three to finish off the shutout and secure the win.

However, he needed 21 pitches to do it, and history is not on his side when he pitches the day after throwing 20-plus pitches.

Rosenthal pitched 22 times this season on no rest, but only five of those appearances came after games in which he threw 20-plus pitches.

• April 12: 22 pitches previous day, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• July 3: 20 pitches previous day, 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• July 9: 20 pitches previous day, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• July 12: 27 pitches previous day, 0.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Sept 21: 22 pitches previous day, 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Those stat lines may not jump off the page as being particularly terrible, but we're talking about one of the most dominant closers in baseball this year tallying two losses, a blown save and allowing multiple baserunners in four of five appearances.

Obviously, the Cardinals' goal will be to build a big enough lead that Rosenthal isn't needed to close things out, but after his 21-pitch outing in Game 1, keeping him in the bullpen is a legitimate key to victory.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.