MLB Free Agents 2015-16: Predicting Final Landing Spots for Top 15 Players
From Zack Greinke to David Price, front-line arms dominate the 2015-16 MLB free-agent class.
Taking a look at the Bleacher Report initial big board, starting pitchers occupy eight of the top 15 spots. An array of talented outfielders also crack the list, but impact infielders are far more difficult to come by.
After considering the offseason needs of all 30 major league squads, here are the predictions for where the 15 most prominent free agents will end up signing and how much money they'll rake in. As it turns out, the player who's set to make the most cash actually lands in the No. 2 spot in the rankings.
15. Yovani Gallardo, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: Cincinnati Reds
After relying on a slew of rookie starters in the second half, adding an established vet would be a smart way for the Cincinnati Reds to add stability to the group.
With a 3.42 ERA in 33 starts for the Texas Rangers in 2015, Yovani Gallardo showed that he's capable of providing just that kind of presence.
The righty's strong showing means he's a viable candidate to receive a qualifying offer from the Rangers. However, because the Reds finished with the second-to-worst record in the bigs, the club's top draft pick is protected.
Predicted Contract: Three years, $48 million
14. Dexter Fowler, CF
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs
Table-setters aren't easy to find. That's exactly why Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein should make it a priority to bring Dexter Fowler back to Wrigley Field for 2016 and beyond.
In his first go-around with the NL Central squad, the veteran center fielder set the tone for the youthful Cubs lineup. The switch-hitter scored 102 runs (fourth in the NL), swiped 20 bases and slugged 17 home runs. Fowler also has a habit of wearing out opposing pitchers, as he averaged 4.09 pitches per plate appearance (No. 10 in the NL), according to ESPN.com.
Predicted Contract: Three years, $45 million
13. John Lackey, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 37
Predicted Landing Spot: Texas Rangers
Quietly, John Lackey enjoyed a brilliant end to the regular season. As Jayson Stark of ESPN noted, the starter reeled off a 1.78 ERA in September, which was the third-best mark in the NL. Lackey wasn't just dealing in September, either. In 33 starts for the St. Louis Cardinals, Lackey sported a 2.77 ERA in 218 innings of work.
If the Texas Rangers lose Yovani Gallardo in free agency, inking Lackey would be a strong way to make up for the loss. Bringing in the right-hander also makes sense from a geographical perspective, as Lackey is a Texas native.
Predicted Contract: Two years, $32 million
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12. Mike Leake, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 28
Predicted Landing Spot: San Francisco Giants
It sounds like Mike Leake wouldn't mind sticking around with the San Francisco Giants.
“It’s a strong possibility that this is a place I’d like to play,” Leake said, per Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area. “It’s kind of wait-and-see. You never know what’s going to happen.”
Leake shouldn't have to wait around for too long, as revamping the underwhelming starting staff is right at the top of the organization's offseason to-do list. Based on the way that starters not named Madison Bumgarner struggled in 2015, the Giants likely will need to add a couple of arms to the roster.
Predicted Contract: Four years, $60 million
11. Scott Kazmir, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 32
Predicted Landing Spot: Minnesota Twins
For the upstart Minnesota Twins, bolstering the starting five will be a top offseason objective, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Inking southpaw Scott Kazmir would definitely help the Twins in that department.
In 2015, Kazmir ripped off the fourth-best ERA (3.13) in the AL while spending the campaign with the Oakland Athletics and the Houston Astros. While the overall ERA stood out, there has to be a little bit of concern about the way Kazmir ended the year. In six September starts, the vet ran up a 6.52 ERA.
Predicted Contract: Three years, $51 million
10. Ian Desmond, SS
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: Chicago White Sox
Ian Desmond's contract season didn't exactly go to script.
In 2015, the right-handed hitter clocked in with a .233 average and a .674 OPS. While those numbers don't jump off the page, it's worth noting that Desmond got back on track in the second half. Following the All-Star break, he hit 12 bombs to end the season with 19 home runs.
The good news for Desmond as he hits the free-agent front is that he's by far the best shortstop of the market. According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Chicago White Sox are one of the teams who could end up being a fit for the shortstop. The South Siders could clear a spot for Desmond by spending $1 million to buy Alexei Ramirez out of his $10 million team option for 2016.
Predicted Contract: Five years, $75 million
9. Chris Davis, 1B
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: Baltimore Orioles
Dan Duquette, the executive vice president of the Baltimore Orioles, appreciates just how valuable Chris Davis is.
“He’s had a great year and he’s been a great player for us, so obviously we’d like to have him back,” Duquette said, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. “Whether we can do that in the market, that remains to be seen, but we’re going to try.”
Based on the numbers that the slugger produced in 2015, the O's would be wise to break out the checkbook. Simply put, it will be nearly impossible to replace Davis' 47 jacks and .923 OPS if he departs Camden Yards.
Predicted Contract: Five years, $110 million
8. Alex Gordon, LF
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2016 Opening Day Age: 32
Predicted Landing Spot: Los Angeles Angels
Alex Gordon would be a logical fit at the Big A.
In 2015, left field was a complete mess for the Los Angeles Angels. The players who lined up at that spot combined to post a .592 OPS, which was the worst mark in the majors. In addition to shoring up that situation, Gordon would provide the Halos with a left-handed bat to slot into the lineup between righties Mike Trout and Albert Pujols.
Predicted Contract: Five years, $90 million
7. Johnny Cueto, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: Boston Red Sox
Making a splash for Johnny Cueto would immediately provide the Boston Red Sox with the ace that the club was noticeably lacking in 2015.
Even though he wobbled down the stretch for the Kansas City Royals (4.76 ERA in 13 starts), there's at least one Red Sox's player who would like to see the Dominican at Fenway Park.
“I think Johnny’s the man," Ryan Hanigan told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. "He’s got great stuff. He’d be a quality guy to have on the mound in any situation."
As Speier pointed out, Hanigan knows Cueto extremely well from catching him for six seasons with the Cincinnati Reds.
Predicted Contract: Six years, $144 million
6. Jordan Zimmermann, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 29
Predicted Landing Spot: San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants seriously need a No. 2 starter to plug into the rotation behind staff ace Madison Bumgarner.
Jordan Zimmermann, the owner of a 3.32 ERA in seven seasons, is just the guy to fit that description. If the NL West club imported the right-hander, and also re-upped Mike Leake (as was previously predicted), San Francisco would have a formidable trio atop the rotation.
The money is there for the Giants to reel in Zimmermann and Leake. According to Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group, San Francisco has "around $50 million to spend this winter."
Predicted Contract: Six years, $150 million
5. Justin Upton, LF
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2016 Opening Day Age: 28
Predicted Landing Spot: New York Yankees
Justin Upton has all sorts of pop. The outfielder connected on 26 home runs for the San Diego Padres, which was actually his lowest output since 2012.
But it's not just his pop that makes Upton an intriguing free-agent target. It's also his age. Upton, who turned 28 in August, is one of the youngest players set to hit the open market.
Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News argued that the New York Yankees should make a play for Upton, as the club angles to bounce back from its wild-card disappointment. But as Feinsand noted, the team would have to ship out one its veteran outfielders to make room for Upton.
Predicted Contract: Six years, $108 million
4. Jason Heyward, CF/RF
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2016 Opening Day Age: 26
Predicted Landing Spot: St. Louis Cardinals
Jason Heyward did it all for the St. Louis Cardinals in his first season at Busch Stadium.
The 26-year-old clubbed 33 doubles, piled up 23 steals and led the squad in WAR (6.0), per the calculations of FanGraphs. In the outfield, Heyward covered all sorts of ground, saving the Cardinals 22 runs, which was the fourth-best mark in the majors.
All of those stats make Heyward a prime candidate to receive a megadeal from the Cards, who so rarely hand out those kind of contracts.
Predicted Contract: Eight years, $160 million
3. Yoenis Cespedes, CF
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: Miami Marlins
After his monster second half, Yoenis Cespedes is going to be one popular player on the free-agent market.
As he explained to Marly Rivera of ESPN Deportes, via Adam Rubin of ESPN, the masher already has an idea of what he'll be looking for from his next employer.
"I'm not thinking about a contract, but I do know that I will be looking for a contract that is six years or more, has to be six years or more. We'll see what happens."
According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, the Miami Marlins are one team that could at least be in the mix: "The Marlins like Mets impending free agent Yoenis Cespedes, 29, but he wants a six-year contract and probably would be too costly."
With Cespedes' knack for delivering in big moments (.318 average in the postseason) and his cannon of a right arm, he's just the kind of game-changer to overpay for.
Location could also factor into the Fish's favor, if the team decides to pursue Cespedes. After signing his first big league deal with the Oakland Athletics, the Cuban bought a home for his mother in nearby Boca Raton, Florida, per Barbara Baker of Newsday.
Predicted Contract: Six years, $120 million
2. David Price, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 30
Predicted Landing Spot: Chicago Cubs
With second-half sensation Jake Arrieta and lefty Jon Lester already in place, adding David Price would give the Chicago Cubs a flat-out nasty one-two-three punch.
According to Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago, the NL Wild Card Game winners were one of the first teams to check in on Price back in July before the Detroit Tigers ultimately dealt him to the Toronto Blue Jays.
The ace sent his price tag soaring by turning in a 9-1 record and a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts for the Jays. However, the postseason remains an enigma for the AL Cy Young hopeful. After dropping Game 1 of the ALDS, Price is now the only pitcher in MLB history to lose his first six postseason starts, per ESPN Stats & Info.
Predicted Contract: Seven years, $210 million
1. Zack Greinke, SP
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2016 Opening Day Age: 32
Predicted Landing Spot: Los Angeles Dodgers
It looks like the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to have to pay up to keep Zack Greinke in town.
After leading the world in ERA (1.65) in 2015, the righty is "almost certain" to opt out of the remaining three years and $71 million left on his current deal, according to Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register.
The way Greinke and Clayton Kershaw carried the Dodgers to the NL West title, making sure that he doesn't depart Chavez Ravine would be the shrewd move for the club's brass. To do so, the Dodgers will have to guarantee the 2015 NL Cy Young Award front-runner more years and way more dollars.
Predicted Contract: Five years, $150 million
Note: All Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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