Mets vs. Dodgers: Keys for Each Team to Win NLDS Game 1
With Clayton Kershaw and Jacob deGrom on the mound, runs will be at a premium in Game 1 of the National League Division Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets.
During the regular season, Kershaw and deGrom were two of the nastiest starters in the Senior Circuit, ranking third and fourth, respectively, in ERA.
After digging through the numbers, we've zeroed in on the two biggest keys for each club, as Kershaw aims to avoid turning in another October dud and deGrom looks to make a memorable October debut.
Key No. 1 for the Dodgers: Get to Jacob deGrom Early
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With a 2.54 ERA in 30 starts, Jacob deGrom was downright stingy in 2015.
The Dodgers' best opportunity to get anything going against the right-hander will come early in the game. Take a look at deGrom's ERA by inning during the regular season:
| 1st Inning | 4.50 ERA |
| 2nd Inning | 0.60 ERA |
| 3rd Inning | 1.82 ERA |
| 4th Inning | 3.10 ERA |
| 5th Inning | 1.93 ERA |
| 6th Inning | 3.80 ERA |
| 7th Inning | 0.61 ERA |
| 8th Inning | 6.00 ERA |
It's often been the long ball that has done deGrom in during the first frame. The 27-year-old served up seven bombs in the first, which accounted for nearly half of the home runs (16) that he allowed.
Looking at the numbers, Adrian Gonzalez is the leading candidate to put an early damper on deGrom's outing. According to Baseball-Reference.com, via Adam Rubin of ESPN, the veteran masher is 3-for-8 with a couple of jacks against the starter.
Key No. 1 for the Mets: Lean on Yoenis Cespedes to Set the Tone
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Ever since arriving in the NL East, Yoenis Cespedes has been a game-changer for the Mets.
As the club embarks on its first postseason trip since 2006, it will need that trend to continue. With the NLDS looming, Cespedes has plenty of confidence in his team, as he told Marly Rivera of ESPN Deportes, via Adam Rubin of ESPN:
"I would say in quality, in just pure talent, our pitching is superior to theirs. Whether things go well for us or not, that is another matter. But in terms of ability, our pitchers are so young, with great arms, a very good pitching staff. I think what they have to do is believe in themselves and get it into their heads that they can do this, and things will work out.
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While it might not be the wisest of moves to antagonize the Dodgers on the eve of the series, Cespedes' confident nature has always served him well in the postseason. In two visits to the playoffs with the Oakland Athletics, the Cuban posted a .350 average, a .525 slugging percentage and a .920 OPS.
Another big postseason showing from Cespedes in the opener is exactly what the Mets need as they aim to grab a 1-0 advantage on the road.
Key No. 2 for the Dodgers: Bridge the Gap from Clayton Kershaw to Kenley Jansen
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Dodgers pitching coach Rick Honeycutt is feeling a lot better about the club's current relief corps than he did about the group from a season ago.
“That ability to get to your back-end guy has to be there," Honeycutt said, per Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register. "I think this year there’s a better mixture there, but I think overall stuff is a lot better overall than where we were at last year.”
According to Moura, Luis Avilan, Chris Hatcher and J.P. Howell are the three relievers who Honeycutt will be relying on the most to bridge the gap from the starter to closer Kenley Jansen.
In the opener, the first key for the Dodgers is to jump out to an early lead. If that can be accomplished, the second key will be to utilize some combination of Avilan, Hatcher and Howell to get the ball from Kershaw to Jansen.
Based on the recent numbers, Hatcher and Howell are the most reliable out of that trio. Hatcher allowed two earned runs from Sept. 1 to the end of the regular season, while Howell gave up just a single earned run during that stretch.
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Key No. 2 for the Mets: Spark Another Clayton Kershaw October Meltdown
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October has never been kind to Clayton Kershaw.
In 11 career outings in the postseason, the lefty is lugging around a 1-5 record and a 5.12 ERA, which is more than double his mark (2.43) in 244 regular-season appearances.
Last fall was especially forgettable, as Kershaw recorded a 7.82 ERA while dropping a pair of starts against the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS. For the Mets, it's going to take patience if the squad is going to produce a Cardinals-esque rally against Kershaw.
In Games 1 and 4 of that set, the wheels fell off for the starter in the seventh inning. Of the 11 earned runs that Kershaw allowed in his two outings, nine came in the seventh frame.
While Kershaw is no average left-hander, the Mets do have a collection of regulars who have raked against southpaws.
| Travis d'Arnaud | 4 HR | 1.112 OPS |
| David Wright | 2 HR | 1.023 OPS |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 8 HR | .736 OPS |
| Lucas Duda | 7 HR | .878 OPS |
Wilmer Flores has also been a menace to lefties, but his impact would have to be made as a pinch hitter. According to Fred Kerber of the New York Post, Ruben Tejada is slated to get the start over Flores in Game 1 of the NLDS.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want tot talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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