Cubs vs. Cardinals: Keys for Each Team to Win NLDS Game 1

After besting the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Wild Card Game 4-0 behind a four-hit shutout from ace Jake Arrieta, the Chicago Cubs are set to take on the NL Central champion St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series.

Game 1 will take place Friday night at 6:30 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, with former Boston Red Sox teammates John Lackey and Jon Lester squaring off and looking to set the tone for the rest of the best-of-five series.

It's the first time the rivals have ever faced off in a postseason series, and the 97-win Cubs and 100-win Cardinals now boast the two best records of any of the eight remaining playoff teams.

The Cardinals won the season series 11-8, but the Cubs took two of three in each of the final two matchups of the year on their way to an MLB-best 22-8 record over the final 30 games.

So ahead of the opening game of what promises to be an exciting series, let's take a look at three keys to victory for each team in Game 1 of the NLDS.

Cubs: Dexter Fowler Setting the Table

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The Chicago Cubs struck quickly in Wednesday night's win over the Pittsburgh Pirates when Dexter Fowler laced a single to lead off the game, stole second base and then scored on a single by No. 2 hitter Kyle Schwarber.

The 29-year-old leadoff man wasn't done there, though, as he finished the game 3-for-4 with a home run and three runs scored, setting the table atop the lineup as he's done all season.

The impact he made in the do-or-die game wasn't lost on manager Joe Maddon either, who was quick to point to his first-inning contributions as a key to the win.

"The leadoff at-bat by Dexter was huge," Maddon told reporters, per Tony Andracki of CSN Chicago. "It's really rare that sometimes you can reflect back on a game of baseball and the very first hitter of the game can set the tone for the entire thing."

That's been the case all season, though, as the Cubs are 52-22 (.703) in games where Fowler has reached base at least twice.

His 102 runs scored were good for fourth in the National League, making him the first Cubs player since Mark DeRosa in 2008 to score 100 runs.

However, Fowler struggled mightily against the Cardinals with a .194/.289/.313 line, and that will have to change for the Cubs to succeed in this series.

Getting off to a good start against Cardinals starter John Lackey, whom Fowler is 2-for-7 with a double against in his career, could spark him for the rest of the series.

Cubs: Jon Lester Continuing His Recent Run of Late-Season Success

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Jake Arrieta won't be available again until Game 3 of the NLDS, so that means it's time for Jon Lester to prove he was worth the $155 million investment the Chicago Cubs made in him during the offseason.

That hefty contract painted his 2015 performance as something of a disappointment, but when all was said and done he went 11-12 with a 3.34 ERA, 1.122 WHIP and 207 strikeouts in 205 innings of work.

Things got off to a rocky start with a 6.23 ERA in April, but he posted a 2.99 ERA the rest of the way and really settled in as the front-line starter he was expected to be.

He was particularly good down the stretch, going 2-2 with a 2.19 ERA, 0.703 WHIP and .169 opponent batting average over his final five starts.

Now he's set to take on a St. Louis Cardinals team that he faced five times during the regular season, posting a 1-3 record with a 2.59 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 31.1 innings of work.

Lester has as impressive a postseason resume as any active pitcher in the game today, and the St. Louis Cardinals remember him all too well in the 2013 World Series when he won a pair of starts and allowed just nine hits and one earned run in 15.1 innings of work.

A five-game series would likely mean two starts from Lester, including the decisive Game 5, so a similar performance could lead the Cubs to the National League Championship Series.

Cubs: David Ross Controlling the Running Game

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It's no secret that Jon Lester can't hold runners on first base, and the St. Louis Cardinals are one team that has taken full advantage of that fact this season.

On Opening Day, the Cardinals stole three bases on Lester without thinking twice, and their run-at-will approach seemed to get in his head a bit.

The strategy seemed to be in effect when he faced them again on May 6, as leadoff hitter Peter Bourjos reached base in the first inning and immediately attempted to steal second base.

Catcher David Ross had other ideas, though, as he gunned Bourjos and shut down the running game early.

The Cardinals did not attempt a stolen base the rest of the game, and Lester walked away as the winning pitcher with seven strong innings of work.

However, that didn't stop the Cardinals from putting up another three-steal game on Lester later in the season, and all told they swiped eight bases on 12 attempts in his five starts against them.

Expect them to be aggressive once again in Game 1, but if Ross can send a message early by throwing out a baserunner, it could go a long way toward controlling the situation.

Ross threw out just 26 percent of would-be base stealers during the regular season, but a lot of that was Lester putting him in a tough spot. Ross still has a terrific arm behind the plate.

Cardinals: John Lackey Continuing His Dominance at Busch Stadium

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With Adam Wainwright suffering an Achilles injury in April and making just four total starts on the year, veteran John Lackey stepped into the role of staff ace and turned in one of the best seasons of his career.

The 36-year-old was 13-10 with a 2.77 ERA that ranked seventh in the National League, and he registered a quality start in 26 of his 33 outings.

That 78.8 percent quality-start rate was fifth-best among all qualified starters, as he was nothing if not consistent.

However, he really shined at Busch Stadium, and he'll be taking the mound in Game 1 in front of the home fans and looking to continue that success.

In 16 starts on the road he was roughly a league-average pitcher, going 4-6 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 96.2 innings of work.

However, at home he was one of the best in the game, as all 17 of his starts were quality starts. He went 9-4 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.170 WHIP.

Lackey faced the Cubs three times in the regular season, pitching well in all three games including two at Busch Stadium.

• May 7 (Home): W, 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
• June 26 (Home): ND, 7.0 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
• July 5 (Away): W, 7.0 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Throw in his impressive October track record, as he's gone 7-5 with a 3.08 ERA in 117 career postseason innings, and all signs point to Lackey being a tough draw for the Cubs in Game 1.

Cardinals: Production from the Cleanup Spot

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With injuries to Matt Adams and Matt Holliday and a second-half slump from Jhonny Peralta, the cleanup spot in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup has been surprisingly unproductive this year.

Here's where the production out of the No. 4 spot in the lineup ranks:

• BA: .254 (22nd)
• OBP: .323 (23rd)
• SLG: .391 (30th)
• HR: 17 (27th)
• RBI: 88 (25th) 

So what's the answer to this lack of middle-of-the-order consistency?

It just might be Jason Heyward.

The 26-year-old has always been a Cubs killer, hitting .293/.380/.489 with eight doubles and eight home runs in 49 games.

This season was no different, as he batted .324 and scored 16 runs in 19 games against them, but the real reason he projects as an X-factor here is his head-to-head success against Jon Lester.

Despite a .230/.309/.351 career line against left-handed pitching, Heyward has always hit Lester well. He's 10-for-24 with four doubles and a home run against Lester in his career.

That includes a 6-for-15 showing with two doubles this season, and with Heyward moving into the middle of the lineup, he should find himself in some key spots. After hitting near the top of the lineup early in the season, Heyward has assumed more of a run-production role down the stretch, and that has included 44 games at cleanup on the year.

Cashing in on baserunners with the middle-of-the-order bats will be key for the Cardinals, and a big game from Heyward could make a major impact in Game 1.

Cardinals: The Health of Yadier Molina

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No one player in the game today means more to the success of his team than St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina.

He's not the offensive difference-maker he once was, but he's still the unquestioned leader both on the field and in the clubhouse, and he's also the game's premier defensive backstop.

Now that's all fine and good to say, but let's back it up with some numbers.

With Molina in the lineup the Cardinals have gone 88-48 (.647) this year and their pitching staff has posted a sterling 2.79 ERA.

On the flip side, they are 12-14 (.462) without him and the pitching staff's ERA climbs to 3.49.

That makes the health of his left thumb one of the biggest storylines of the postseason, and Game 1 will be a big test in whether or not he'll be in the lineup throughout the playoffs.

The 33-year-old has not played since Sept. 20 after suffering a partially torn ligament in that thumb on a play at home plate. He is expected to be in the lineup for Game 1, wearing a brace on the thumb.

Even if he's not able to provide much offensively, the team is undoubtedly better with him managing the pitching staff and calling the game.

How he responds to his first game action in over two weeks will be one of the keys of not only Game 1 but of the rest of the postseason for the Cardinals.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted.