Colts vs. Texans: What's the Game Plan for Houston?

Offensive Game Plan

Are you ready for an alarming stat that perfectly sums up the Houston Texans' season so far?

Through four weeks of the 2015 season, the Texans lead the league in pass attempts, but rank dead last in both completion percentage and yards gained per pass attempt.

Currently the Texans are averaging 50.25 pass attempts per game and completing 52.7 percent; the NFL team average for those stats are 35.5 attempts per game and a completion percentage of 64.2.

Not surprisingly after seeing the last two stats, the Texans also sit near the bottom of the league, in 29th place, for team quarterback rating.

That's a pretty big strike against one of the core issues with this team: They have no identity.

How do they expect to win by taking something they don't do well and for whatever reason doing it more often than any other team in the league?

You know that saying, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results," that's basically been the Texans' game plan through four weeks.

The fact that they trailed so quickly and by such a large margin to both the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons certainly added to the problem, but there's no excuse for how heavily they've leaned on the passing game this year.

It might be a passing league that requires a great quarterback to win big, but currently the teams that rank inside the top 10 for passing attempts have a combined record of 15-25.

Only one team—the Denver Broncos—inside the top 10 has a winning record this season.

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Regardless of what you think about Peyton Manning at this stage of his career, Ryan Mallett still isn't close to being on his level or capable of being efficient when given that many passing attempts.

Last year the Texans ranked first in the NFL in rushing attempts—551—and 30th in passing attempts with 485.

This year the Texans rank 14th in rushing attempts—107—and first in passing attempts with 201 for the year. That's nearly a 2-to-1 in a pass attempts-to rushing attempts ratio; it's a recipe for disaster with their roster.

Bill O'Brien and offensive coordinator George Godsey have to get the pendulum to swing back in the other direction starting this week.

Regardless if their starting running back is Arian Foster, Alfred Blue, Chris Polk or Jonathan Grimes—when he returns from injury—they have to commit to running the ball early and often if this offense has any chance of getting things turned around in the right direction.

The Indianapolis Colts currently rank 25th in rushing yards allowed per game, 19th in rushing yards per attempt and are in a tie for 19th in rushing touchdowns allowed.

Pro Football Focus has them ranked 18th in their team run defense rating.

There will be room for the running backs to run if the Texans' coaching staff sticks with the ground game.

Defensive Game Plan

This might sound odd to some considering the final scores of the four Texans games so far, but as long as their offense doesn't turn the ball over, the defense should be fine against Indianapolis and nearly every other opponent that isn't New England or Green Bay.

Some of you are probably a bit skeptical of that last statement, but let me explain my point with a few stats.

The Texans have turned the ball over a total of eight times this season with their opponent scoring a touchdown after seven of those turnovers. That's a total of 48 points allowed—the Falcons took a knee on the two-point conversation attempt after their last touchdown—directly related to turnovers from the offense.

So if you subtract those 48 points off turnovers from the 108 total points they've allowed this season, you're left with 60 points allowed by the defense when not put in a bad position with a short field to defend.

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Doing that takes their average for points allowed per game from 27 with turnovers factored in, to just 15 points per game without turnovers.

To take it one step further, the Texans have faced 55 offensive possessions from their opponents this season.

On the eight possessions that started after a turnover from the offense, the Texans defense has allowed 48 points, which works out to six points per possession.

On the 47 possessions that didn't start after a turnover from the offense, the Texans defense has allowed 60 points, which works out to 1.27 points per possession.

Even when the offense doesn't turn the ball over, it's hurting the defense with quick punts and bad field position off poor kick and punt returns.

The Texans rank last in the league in average starting field position and 31st in average time per drive.

It doesn't look the same on the box score, but putting the defense back on the field after a poor kick return and a quick punt is pretty close to being a turnover since they have to defend a shorter field and have received little rest.

The Texans will need to pressure whoever the Colts start at quarterback and limit T.Y. Hilton's and Donte Moncrief's big-play ability, but none of those efforts will matter if the offense continues to turn the ball over at its current rate.

Of course the defense causing a few turnovers of its own would help neutralize that problem.

Here's one encouraging stat for this game to hang some hope on: The Texans are tied for fourth in most turnovers this year, with eight, but the team that ranks first in that stat happens to be their opponent this week.

Key Players and Matchups

Slowing Down T.Y. Hilton

AJ Mast/Associated Press

In just six games against the Texans, Hilton has 35 receptions for 661 yards (110.2 per game) and six touchdowns—easily his best numbers against any team in the league.

Hilton's speed and ability to get over the top of defenses is special. Regardless of who the Colts start at quarterback, keeping Hilton in check will be the defense's top priority.

Feed Arian Foster If He's Healthy

The Texans star running back didn't play well last week, but he could be in for a big bounce-back week against an opponent he's dominated over his career.

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Three of Foster's top four single-game rushing totals have come against the Colts, while his yards per game (120) and yards per attempt (six) numbers are better against Indianapolis than any other opponent he's played more than twice, according to Pro Football Reference.

As outlined above, the Texans can't afford to get pass-happy with the offensive play-calling this week or any other week for that matter. Having a back like Foster to lean on would go a long way toward restoring balance to the offense.

Prediction

The Texans are a deeply flawed team, but they will have a chance to regain some momentum against another team that also has many holes and issues to address.

Even if Colts Pro Bowl players like Andrew Luck and Vontae Davis play this week, they most likely won't be at 100 percent, so the Texans are catching a wounded team.

If Luck or Davis isn't healthy enough to play their A-game, then the Texans secondary will look a lot better than last week, and DeAndre Hopkins will have a chance to post career-best numbers.

Playing Foster last week should have also helped to knock off some of the rust, so perhaps we'll see him back in Pro Bowl form this week. 

On top of those factors, this game will be at home with hopefully an energized crowd for a Thursday night prime-time game with the franchise's best player returning to face his former teammates.

The Colts aren't running the ball well (26th in yards), are turning the ball over a ton (32nd in turnovers) and are giving up a ton of yards on defense (27th in yards allowed).

Combining that with their injuries and having to play against a team desperate to get the taste of a humiliating loss out of its mouth, is enough reason to take the Texans to win by a small margin.

Final Score: Texans 23, Colts 21