NLDS 2015: Cubs vs. Cardinals Position-by-Position Breakdown, Predictions
After 162 games, the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs will meet in a National League Division Series comprised of NL Central foes.
On paper, both the Cardinals and Cubs have what it takes to advance to the National League Championship Series. Over the next few slides, we'll break down the upcoming series position by position to try to determine which team has the upper hand.
Both rosters are loaded with pitching talent. The Cardinals achieved the best record in baseball behind a starting rotation that posted the lowest ERA in MLB and a bullpen full of reliable arms. Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta dominated like we've never seen before in the second half to push the Cubs into the postseason.
Offensively, the Cubs have the advantage in the infield with the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro and Addison Russell manning their positions. In the outfield, St. Louis has multiple difference-makers in Jason Heyward, Matt Holliday, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty.
Before Game 1 on Friday, let's talk about the series in the comments section below. Which positions do you think your team has an advantage in? Who are the most important players in the series? What will ultimately prove to be the deciding factor?
Picking between these two teams was no easy task. Regardless of your allegiance, the following slideshow should at least give you a better idea of how each team stacks up with the other.
Catcher
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| Player | G | Slash Line | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
| Yadier Molina | 136 | .270/.310/.350 | 4 | 61 | .660 | 1.3 |
| Miguel Montero | 113 | .248/.345/.409 | 15 | 53 | .754 | 2.0 |
Positional Overview
When healthy, Yadier Molina is one of the best two-way catchers in baseball. But the 33-year-old will enter October at less than 100 percent.
Although the Cardinals are optimistic he'll be on the postseason roster after a comforting rehab session, per Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com, Molina's thumb injury seems like it could trouble him throughout the playoffs.
Even before the injury, Molina was in the midst of one of his worst offensive seasons in recent memory. His .270/.310/.350 slash line was well below his career averages and he hit less than 10 homers for the second season in a row.
For the Cubs, Miguel Montero has been a solid addition in his first season in the Windy City. His average isn't impressive, but the 32-year-old sports an impressive walk rate and is a threat to leave the ballpark anytime.
Defensively, Montero ranks among the league's best in pitch framing. According to StatCorner.com, he earned 100 extra strikes for his pitching staff this season, which was significantly better than Molina's 43.
Edge: Cubs
If Molina was healthy, the Cardinals may have the edge here. However, a troubling thumb injury on top of a disappointing season is definitely cause for concern.
Meanwhile, Montero gives Cubs pitchers a crucial advantage with his pitch-framing abilities.
First Base
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| Player | G | Slash Line | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
| Brandon Moss | 145 | .226/.304/.407 | 19 | 58 | .711 | 0.6 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 160 | .278/.387/.512 | 34 | 101 | .899 | 5.5 |
Positional Overview
Of all the positions in this series, there's not a more clear-cut advantage than with Anthony Rizzo at first base.
Rizzo was one of the top first basemen in MLB this season, hitting 34 homers and driving in over 100 runs. The 26-year-old punished the baseball, hitting the ball hard over 33 percent of the time.
Although he is best known for his bat, Rizzo has proven to be an elite defender as well. He finished the season with 10 defensive runs saved, which ranked second in the majors among MLB first baseman.
There is some intrigue as to who St. Louis will deploy at first base during the series. Mark Reynolds and Brandon Moss split the duties after Matt Adams went down with injury, and could continue in a platoon capacity in the NLDS. Moss presents the most upside, as he posted a .753 OPS in 51 games with the Cardinals.
Edge: Cubs
Regardless of who manager Mike Matheny trots out, Rizzo will be significantly better. If the Cubs are to pull off the upset, Rizzo must lead a young core of talent in the middle of the lineup.
Second Base
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| Player | G | Slash Line | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
| Kolten Wong | 150 | .262/.321/.386 | 11 | 61 | .707 | 2.3 |
| Starlin Castro | 151 | .265/.296/.375 | 11 | 69 | .671 | 0.8 |
Positional Overview
Looking at the entire body of work over the 2015 season, it's clear that Kolten Wong outplayed Starlin Castro. After all, Castro lost his shortstop position and was in the middle of trade talks all year long.
But behind a scorching-hot September, Castro has regained the adoration of manager Joe Maddon and the Cubs fanbase as a whole. The 25-year-old hit .369 over the season's final month, launching five of his 11 homers. Castro also improved defensively after moving to second base, posting a positive total in DRS for the first time since 2012.
Wong didn't have a bad season, but he failed to build off his breakout postseason run in 2014. The 24-year-old made soft contact over 20 percent of the time and continued to show an unwillingness to work the count. Wong ranked in the top 40 in MLB in chase rate.
Although Wong is still figuring it out at the dish, he remains a threat on the bases and is a sure-handed defender. He also proved last season that he's capable of performing under the bright lights of October.
Edge: Cubs
Again, Castro had a roller-coaster year that saw plenty of humbling lows. Yet, it's hard to pick against one of the hottest hitters in the game at the moment, especially since Wong was surprisingly mediocre this season.
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Third Base
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| Player | G | Slash Line | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
| Matt Carpenter | 154 | .272/.365/.505 | 28 | 84 | .871 | 5.2 |
| Kris Bryant | 151 | .275/.369/.488 | 26 | 99 | .858 | 6.5 |
Positional Overview
Both teams will send an impact player out to third base in the NLDS. Matt Carpenter and Kris Bryant are key cogs in their teams' lineups and will have plenty of opportunities to come up with big hits.
The normally contact-driven Carpenter completely changed his approach this season, striking out more and mashing a career-high 28 homers. The 29-year-old managed to sustain a high walk rate, which made him one of the most complete offensive third basemen in the game.
Of course, Bryant captured the imagination of the baseball world during his rookie season. After starting the year in Triple-A, Bryant led all rookies in WAR, homers, RBI and runs scored. He struck out over 30 percent of the time, but ranked 14th in hard-contact percentage and walked nearly 12 percent of the time.
Edge: Cardinals
Bryant had a monster year, but Carpenter's evolution into a power threat makes him one of the most dangerous hitters in the postseason. He's also enjoyed success in October in previous seasons, which should only raise his confidence.
Shortstop
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| Player | G | Slash Line | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
| Jhonny Peralta | 155 | .275/.334/.411 | 17 | 71 | .745 | 1.7 |
| Addison Russell | 142 | .242/.307/.389 | 13 | 54 | .696 | 2.9 |
Positional Overview
What's more valuable in the postseason: Jhonny Peralta's bat or Addison Russell's glove?
Peralta continued to be one of the top offensive shortstops in MLB this season. The 33-year-old reached double figures in homers for the 11th straight season and managed to maintain a quality average. Peralta smoked the baseball again this year, posting a hard-contact percentage over 30 percent and ranking in the top 25 in limiting weak contact.
On the flip side, Peralta took a step back defensively. After saving 17 runs a season ago, he cost the Cardinals seven runs at shortstop this year.
Russell, on the other hand, excelled with the glove, ultimately supplanting Starlin Castro as the Cubs' everyday shortstop. Despite a lackluster first season at the dish, the 21-year-old saved 10 runs after moving to short and 19 overall.
Edge: Cubs
Defense is crucial in the postseason, which is why Russell's importance can't be measured by offensive statistics. As long as he continues to play an elite shortstop, any production at the plate will be an additional perk for the Cubs.
Left Field
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| Player | G | Slash Line | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
| Matt Holliday | 73 | .279/.394/.410 | 4 | 35 | .804 | 0.9 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 69 | .246/.355/.487 | 16 | 43 | .842 | 1.9 |
Positional Overview
Many pundits pegged Kris Bryant and Addison Russell to make impacts this season, but Kyle Schwarber's emergence in Chicago was an added bonus for the talent-rich organization.
Schwarber hit 16 homers and knocked in 43 men in just 69 games for the Cubs. The 22-year-old displayed a polished approach at the plate, balancing high strikeout totals with a 13 percent walk rate. Not many players hit the ball harder than Schwarber did in 2015.
Still, Matt Holliday is a proven veteran with plenty of game left in the tank. Before an injury cost the 35-year-old the majority of the season, Holliday was on a tear. He had similar walk and strikeout rates, which led to a near-.400 on-base percentage.
Edge: Cardinals
Putting together quality at-bats against nasty stuff will be an important factor in this series. At this stage in his career, Schwarber is still susceptible to the strikeout, which is why Holliday remains the more reliable option.
Center Field
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| Player | G | Slash Line | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
| Jason Heyward | 154 | .293/.359/.439 | 13 | 60 | .797 | 6.0 |
| Dexter Fowler | 156 | .250/.346/.411 | 17 | 46 | .757 | 3.2 |
Positional Overview
According to Derick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Jason Heyward will likely play center field for the Cardinals in the NLDS.
That should suit the Gold Glove right fielder just fine. There aren't many better defensive outfielders in baseball than Heyward. In his six-year career, Heyward has recorded an astounding 122 defensive runs saved.
Heyward has always been an elite defender, but he took a big step offensively in his first season in St. Louis. The 26-year-old set a career highs in batting average and posted double figures in stolen bases and homers.
Chicago will counter with Dexter Fowler, who is quite the impact player of his own. Despite a high strikeout rate, the 29-year-old hit 17 homers and stole 20 bases while leading off for the Cubs.
Edge: Cardinals
With free agency looming after the season, October has a little more meaning for Heyward. If he struts his all-around game over the next month, a tremendous payday will be in the cards this winter.
Right Field
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| Player | G | Slash Line | HR | RBI | OPS | WAR |
| Randal Grichuk | 103 | .276/.329/.548 | 17 | 47 | .877 | 3.1 |
| Chris Coghlan | 148 | .250/.341/.443 | 16 | 41 | .784 | 3.3 |
Positional Overview
The Cardinals will platoon two quality rookies in right field in the NLDS in Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty.
Grichuk, 24, carried the St. Louis offense at times this season, mashing 17 homers and slugging well over .500 in just 103 games. Piscotty, also 24, enjoyed a similar impact, hitting over .300 and driving in 39 runs in less than 70 games.
Unfortunately, both youngsters enter the postseason with injury concerns. Each figures to play in the NLDS, but it'll be compelling to watch how each reacts to playing through pain.
The Cubs are also likely to use more than one player in right field during the series. Chris Coghlan received the majority of the playing time down the stretch after hitting 16 homers and stealing 11 bags in 2015. Kyle Schwarber, Austin Jackson or Jorge Soler could also find themselves in the starting lineup.
Edge: Cardinals
Banged up or not, Grichuk and Piscotty are impact rookies who are capable of making a difference in October. Coghlan has enjoyed a nice season, but the Cardinals won't lose sleep over the 30-year-old's presence in the lineup.
Starting Rotation
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| St. Louis | Chicago |
| John Lackey (13-10, 2.77 ERA, 218 IP, 7.22 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 3.57 FIP) | Jon Lester (11-12, 3.34 ERA, 205 IP, 9.09 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, 2.92 FIP) |
| Lance Lynn (12-11, 3.03 ERA, 175.1 IP, 8.57 K/9, 3.49 BB/9, 3.44 FIP) | Jason Hammel (10-7, 3.74 ERA, 170.2 IP, 9.07 K/9, 2.11 B/9, 3.68 FIP) |
| Michael Wacha (17-7, 3.38 ERA, 181.1 IP, 7.59 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 3.87 FIP) | Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA, 229 IP, 9.28 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, 2.35 FIP) |
| Jaime Garcia (10-6, 2.43 ERA, 129.2 IP, 6.73 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 3.00 FIP) | Dan Haren (11-9, 3.60 ERA, 187.1 IP, 6.34 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, 4.61 FIP) |
Positional Overview
Both teams will enter the NLDS with strong starting rotations. While St. Louis may have a deeper staff, the Cubs have the better one-two punch in Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester.
Arrieta is in the midst of an all-time great run. The right-hander posted a 0.75 ERA in the second half and blanked the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Wild Card Game behind an 11-strikeout performance. He won't be able to start Game 1, but Jon Lester and his 2.57 ERA in 14 career postseason games isn't a bad consolation prize.
The Cardinals' success in 2015 was predicated on an elite starting rotation. After Adam Wainwright went down with an Achilles injury earlier this year, John Lackey, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Jaime Garcia banded together to post the lowest starters' ERA in the big leagues.
Despite that success, the losses of Wainwright and Martinez could finally be felt in October. Lackey, Lynn and Garcia are throwing the ball well, but a struggling Wacha (4.01 ERA in the second half) is a huge concern entering the NLDS.
Edge: Cubs
St. Louis' staff is deeper than Chicago's, and therefore better over a 162-game season. But in a five-game series, St. Louis must face Lester and Arrieta three, maybe even four times. Because of that, the Cubs have a slight edge here.
Bullpen
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| St. Louis | Chicago |
| Trevor Rosenthal (48 SV, 2.10 ERA) | Hector Rondon (30 SV, 1.67 ERA) |
| Kevin Siegrist (2.17 ERA) | Pedro Strop (2.91 ERA) |
| Seth Maness (4.26 ERA) | Travis Wood (2.95 ERA) |
| Carlos Villanueva (2.95 ERA) | Justin Grimm (1.99 ERA) |
| Steve Cishek (2.31 ERA with Cardinals) | Jason Motte (3.91 ERA) |
| Jonathan Broxton (2.66 ERA with Cardinals) | Fernando Rodney (0.75 ERA with Cubs) |
| Adam Wainwright (3.00 ERA in three games) | Kyle Hendricks (3.95 ERA as a starter) |
Positonal Overview
As with the starting pitching, both teams have reliable bullpens to help close out tight games. St. Louis ranked third in relievers' ERA this season, while the Cubs finished eighth.
Elite bullpens start with lockdown closers. Trevor Rosenthal and Hector Rondon each posted a minuscule ERA and struck out everything in sight in 2015. Rosenthal has nastier stuff, but Rondon has better control. In the postseason, where walks are at a premium, it's nice to have a closer who will come in and throw strikes.
Each team also has various left-handed and right-handed options to use in matchup situations.
Pedro Strop, Justin Grimm and Fernando Rodney can handle right-handers for manager Joe Maddon, while southpaw Travis Wood held lefties to a .227 average. St. Louis has reliable veterans in Jonathan Broxton and Steve Cishek to use in a pinch. Kevin Siegrist is another valuable weapon for the Red Birds, striking out over 10 per nine innings this season.
Don't forget: Adam Wainwright could be an X-factor for St. Louis out of the pen. After overcoming an Achilles injury to return late in September, the former Cy Young winner will have an opportunity to make a difference in a relief capacity.
Edge: Cubs
Rosenthal is an elite closer, but Rondon's ability to throw strikes enhances his value in October. Cubs relievers also ranked seventh in MLB in strikeouts per nine innings and 13th in walks per nine innings, which were both ahead of St. Louis.
It's close, but a bullpen that misses more bats and walks less hitters is better suited to succeed in the postseason.
Series Prediction
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Both the Cubs and Cardinals have talented rosters that are capable of reaching the NLCS.
The difference between the two clubs is at the top of the rotation. Outside of L.A., there's not a team in the league that can field a better one-two punch than Arrieta and Lester. St. Louis has a deep staff, but can't match that front-line production, especially with what Arrieta has done since the All-Star break.
In a series that figures to be close, each team's bullpen will also play a big role in its success. There's not much separating the two units, but Chicago has more swing-and-miss guys who aren't afraid to throw strikes.
Finally, the Cubs have Maddon. He's not scared to employ off-the-wall concepts and is one of the top bullpen managers in baseball. The Cubs may be young, but they're led by arguably the best manager in MLB.
Prediction: Cubs in five
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Oct. 8.
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