NLDS 2015: Mets vs. Dodgers Position-by-Position Breakdown, Predictions

From Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke to Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey, the National League Division Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets is all about the aces.

After combing through the numbers and breaking down the matchup on a position-by-position basis, there's one observation that is unavoidable: This is one evenly matched series. Both teams have outstanding starting pitching, but their lineups and bullpens are littered with question marks.

In addition to exploring which club has the edge in each of those positional battles, what follows are predictions for how this series will play out and whether Kershaw will finally deliver for the Dodgers in October.

Catcher

Kathy Kmonicek/Associated Press

The Battle: Travis d'Arnaud vs. A.J. Ellis/Yasmani Grandal

Travis d'Arnaud gets the nod in this competition over the combination of A.J. Ellis and Yasmani Grandal.

With Grandal mired in a 3-for-51 funk to close out the season, Ellis should get plenty of opportunities. The only drawback to utilizing Ellis is that the vet does most of his damage against lefties (.913 OPS), and the Mets will start right-handers in the first three games of the set.

For the Mets, the 26-year-old d'Arnaud impressed while handling the club's talented young pitching staff and also made his mark at the plate. If he had tallied enough at-bats to qualify for the league leaders, his .825 OPS would have been the second-best mark among all NL catchers.

Edge: Mets

1st Base

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

The Battle: Lucas Duda vs. Adrian Gonzalez

This battle is awfully close. Just take a look at the respective numbers for the first basemen:

• Adrian Gonzalez: .275 AVG, .350 OBP, .480 SLG, .830 OPS, 28 home runs
• Lucas Duda: .244 AVG, .352 OBP, .486 SLG, .838 OPS, 27 home runs

What gives Gonzalez the advantage is his superior glove work and his postseason track record. According to FanGraphs, Gonzalez saved the Dodgers 10 runs (tied for second-best in the bigs), while Duda saved just four. When it comes to October experience, Gonzalez has posted a .500 slugging percentage and an .860 OPS in three trips, but Duda has never appeared in a playoff contest. 

Edge: Dodgers

2nd Base

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

The Battle: Daniel Murphy vs. Howie Kendrick

With left-handers Clayton Kershaw and Brett Anderson both in the rotation for the Dodgers, the NLDS is not shaping up to be a favorable matchup for Daniel Murphy.

This season, the 30-year-old logged a .633 OPS against southpaws, while checking in with an .813 OPS (and 13 of his 14 home runs) against righties.

For Los Angeles, Howie Kendrick had slightly more success against right-handers (.753 OPS) than against left-handers (.721 OPS), and the Mets will trot out Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey to begin the series.

Health was also a factor in this battle. After a hamstring injury wrecked most of Kendrick's August and September, the veteran looks to be back to 100 percent. Following his stint on the disabled list, Kendrick hit .288 in the final 12 games of the regular season.

Edge: Dodgers

Shortstop

Danny Moloshok/Associated Press

The Battle: Wilmer Flores/Ruben Tejada vs. Corey Seager

With a .337 average and a .986 OPS in his brief big league career, Corey Seager wins this debate.

But don't count out New York's platoon of Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada altogether.

According to Adam Rubin of ESPN.com, Tejada will get the start in Game 1, as Flores recently dropped 10 pounds while dealing with a bout of strep throat. As it turns out, Tejada has owned Clayton Kershaw, the pitcher who will be on the mound for that clash. As Rubin noted, Tejada has a .357 average in 17 at-bats against the lefty ace.

Flores also has the potential to make an impact on this series. With 16 bombs in 483 at-bats, the 24-year-old has sneaky good power. 

Edge: Dodgers

3rd Base

Danny Moloshok/Associated Press

The Battle: David Wright vs. Justin Turner

This was a tricky call to make. Since returning from the DL at the end of August, David Wright has looked like his old dynamic self. In 30 games, the vet tallied a .277 average and an .818 OPS. But as strong as Wright has been in his return, it's impossible to ignore the numbers that Turner has been piling up all season.

The 30-year-old posted a .294 average and mashed 16 home runs, while seeing time at all four infield spots. His .861 OPS was the highest mark of any Dodger who spent the entire season at Chavez Ravine.

The matchup with the Mets also sets up well for Turner. In 2015, he crushed right-handed pitchers to the tune of a .312 average and a .904 OPS. Turner also has the chance to play against a team that non-tendered him following the 2013 season.

"You'd have to say, we missed on him," GM Sandy Alderson admitted of the decision to cut Turner loose, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.

Beginning Friday, Turner will have the chance to remind Alderson and the Mets just how badly they missed.

Edge: Dodgers

Left Field

Kathy Kmonicek/Associated Press

The Battle: Michael Conforto/Michael Cuddyer vs. Carl Crawford

The Dodgers' left-handed-heavy rotation means there might not be a ton of opportunities for rookie Michael Conforto in this series.

According to Adam Rubin of ESPN.com, manager Terry Collins plans to platoon Conforto with Michael Cuddyer. In his first season in Queens, Cuddyer has underwhelmed, posting a .699 OPS. However, that's almost identical to the mark posted by Carl Crawford (.707).

The pitching matchups make this battle closer than it would otherwise be, but Cuddyer and Conforto still look like a more dangerous combination than Crawford by himself.

Edge: Mets

Center Field

Kathy Kmonicek/Associated Press

The Battle: Yoenis Cespedes vs. Joc Pederson

With Joc Pederson sporting a .178 average in 62 second-half-contests, the Mets have a commanding advantage in this department.

While Pederson was ice-cold following the Midsummer Classic, Cespedes was one of the scariest hitters in baseball—especially once he joined the Mets. In 57 games with the NL East champs, the Cuban clubbed 14 doubles, four triples and 17 home runs, while compiling a .604 slugging percentage and a .942 OPS.

With the NLDS looming, Cespedes isn't stressing about having to face two of the most electric starters on the planet in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.

"They're pitchers just like anyone else," Cespedes told Mike Vorkunov of NJ.com, via an interpreter. "They're going to throw the same pitches. I think the most important thing is to have fun."

Cespedes has a history of having fun in October. In 10 career postseason contests, the 29-year-old is a .350 hitter and owns a .920 OPS.

Bob Melvin, his former skipper with the Oakland Athletics, expects a strong showing from Cespedes.

"He loves the big stage. He loves the bright lights," Melvin said, per Barbara Barker of Newsday. "He loves it when the games were important and the stands were packed." 

Edge: Mets

Right Field

Danny Moloshok/Associated Press

The Battle: Curtis Granderson vs. Andre Ethier/Yasiel Puig

While Curtis Granderson (26 home runs and an .821 OPS) and Andre Ethier (14 home runs and an .852 OPS) have both excelled in 2015, Yasiel Puig is the X-factor in this battle.

According to the Associated Press, via ESPN, Puig said that he'll be on the roster for the NLDS. The right fielder missed five weeks at the end of the regular season with a strained hamstring, but he was healthy enough to take part in the final two contests of the campaign.

Manager Don Mattingly remains optimistic that Puig will be able to chip in for Los Angeles.

“A guy that hasn’t played in a while, a little bit rusty,” Mattingly said, per Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times. “But that doesn’t mean anything. It doesn’t mean that the thing turns and that the bright lights come on and something good happens. You never know what’s going to happen this time of year.”

There's no debating that 2015 has been a disappointing and injury-riddled campaign for the 24-year-old. Still, with his cannon of a right arm and his big-time power, Puig has the tools to provide the Dodgers with a game-changing play in the opening round.

Edge: Dodgers

Bullpen

Danny Moloshok/Associated Press

Mets Bullpen

• Jeurys Familia, RHP (Closer)
• Tyler Clippard, RHP
• Addison Reed, RHP
• Bartolo Colon, RHP
• Hansel Robles, RHP
• Jonathan Niese, LHP
• Erik Goeddel, LHP
• Sean Gilmartin, LHP

Projected Dodgers Bullpen

• Kenley Jansen, RHP (Closer)
• Chris Hatcher, RHP
• Yimi Garcia, RHP
• Pedro Baez, RHP
• Juan Nicasio, RHP
• J.P. Howell, LHP
• Luis Avilan, LHP

According to Adam Rubin of ESPN.com, the Mets pen is all but set. The only remaining question is if Steven Matz (back) will be healthy enough to make the the start in Game 4. If he's not, Sean Gilmartin will replace him on the roster. For the Dodgers, the bullpen listed above is a projection, as the team has yet to announce its group of 25 players.

For both the Mets and the Dodgers, the problem hasn't been the ninth inning. Jeurys Familia was 43-for-48 in save tries for New York, while Kenley Jansen was 36-for-38 for the NL West winner. Jansen also piled up punchouts at an alarming rate, posting a 13.8 strikeouts-per-nine ratio.

The problem has been getting to the ninth with a lead.

Down the stretch, the Dodgers were much more effective in that department. Right-handed setup man Chris Hatcher allowed just one earned run in his final 13 outings. From the left side, J.P. Howell allowed only one earned run in his final 20 appearances. Tyler Clippard, the top setup arm for the Mets, wasn't nearly as effective, as he ran up a 6.59 ERA in 13 September outings. 

Edge: Dodgers

Game 1 Starting Pitchers and Prediction

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

The Battle: Jacob deGrom vs. Clayton Kershaw

In this clash of aces, Clayton Kershaw outduels Jacob deGrom to hand the Dodgers a 1-0 lead.

Justin Turner puts the Dodgers ahead 2-0 with a two-run double in the third inning, but Ruben Tejada cuts the lead in half with a solo shot in the seventh. Kershaw works eight frames and records nine strikeouts before Kenley Jansen enters in the ninth to close out Game 1. 

Game 1 prediction: Dodgers win, 2-1

Game 2 Starting Pichers and Prediction

Kathy Kmonicek/Associated Press

The Battle: Noah Syndergaard vs. Zack Greinke

Last weekend, Noah Syndergaard didn't hesitate to speak his mind when asked about the challenge of heading to Dodger Stadium to take on the kings of the NL West.

“I think we’re going to give it to the Dodgers anywhere we are,” Syndergaard told Mike Puma of the New York Post.

In this Game 2 matchup against Zack Greinke, the rookie backs those words up. Syndergaard allows two runs in seven innings and Yoenis Cespedes play the familiar role of hero. The center fielder ruins Greinke's night by connecting on a three-run homer in the first inning. The Mets head home with a split.

Game 2 prediction: Mets win, 3-2

Game 3 Starting Pitchers and Prediction

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

The Battle: Matt Harvey vs. Brett Anderson

In the first game in New York, Matt Harvey cruises through six shutout frames as the Mets open up a 2-1 advantage in the series.

Brett Anderson endures a rough outing at Citi Field, giving up four runs in just five innings of work. David Wright stars for the home team, going 3-for-4 with a double as he drives in three runs.

Game 3 prediction: Mets win, 6-3

Game 4 Starting Pitchers and Prediction

Danny Moloshok/Associated Press

The Battle: Steven Matz vs. Clayton Kershaw

With the Dodgers staring down a 2-1 deficit and in a must-win situation, manager Don Mattingly calls on Clayton Kershaw on three days' rest.

Unlike last October when Kershaw stumbled while pitching against the St. Louis Cardinals on short rest in the NLDS, the 27-year-old delivers a gem for the Dodgers. Kershaw allows one run in seven innings and punches out seven.

With Steven Matz's back proving healthy enough for the lefty to take his turn  on the mound, Mattingly gives Yasiel Puig his first start of the series. In the sixth, with the Dodgers trailing by one, Puig connects on a three-run shot, which proves to be the game winner.

Game 4 prediction: Dodgers win, 3-1

Game 5 Starting Pitchers and Prediction

Danny Moloshok/Associated Press

The Battle: Jacob deGrom vs. Zack Greinke

In the clincher for the Dodgers, Zack Greinke reminds everybody why he was the ERA leader in 2015.

The right-hander spins seven scoreless frames before Chris Hatcher works a shutout eighth. In the ninth inning, Yoenis Cespedes connects on a RBI double to make it a one-run game, but Kenley Jansen puts out the fire to send the Dodgers onto the NL Championship Series.

The winner in Games 1 and 4, Clayton Kershaw takes home the MVP honors for the opening round.

Game 5 prediction: Dodgers win, 2-1

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com and FanGraphs. All pitching matchups courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.