Chicago Bears vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs hope to end a three-game skid both straight up and against the spread Sunday when they host the Chicago Bears. The Chiefs have lost their last two games on the road against the Green Bay Packers and the Cincinnati Bengals, both of whom are unbeaten. Meanwhile, the Bears are coming off their first win of the season, which also ended an eight-game losing streak dating back to last year. 

Point spread: The Chiefs opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 45.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.2-16.6 Chiefs

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Chicago got starting quarterback Jay Cutler back from a hamstring injury last week, and he helped lead the team to a 22-20 win over the Oakland Raiders as a three-point home underdog. Cutler completed 28 of 43 passes for a season-high 281 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, all without his top receiver, Alshon Jeffery.

New head coach John Fox knows the AFC West well from his four years with the Denver Broncos, so he will be able to give his players some tips on how to handle the crowd noise at Arrowhead Stadium. While that may not seem like a big deal, familiarity with the surroundings in Kansas City can only help the Bears this week.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs' unfortunate scheduling early this season has seen them play three consecutive unbeaten teams in a row. Of course, there is no way they would have known that ahead of time except to realize the Broncos, the Packers and the Bengals would all be pretty good this year. They get a break now, though, returning home to face a Chicago team that has earned just one victory.

Cutler has thrown a pick in every one of his starts in 2015, and he will be facing a swarming defense that likes to pressure the quarterback. He is still bothered by his injury, as it restricts his mobility even if he can throw downfield. Keep an eye on the injury report to see if Jeffery returns from a hamstring injury that has kept him out since Week 1. The Bears are limited offensively despite having Cutler back in the lineup with running back Matt Forte and tight end Martellus Bennett the only real playmakers.

Smart pick

Give Cutler credit for missing just one game, but Kansas City’s defense will make him wish he had stayed on the sidelines for at least a couple more weeks. The Chiefs will be an angry team that will take its frustrations out on him and the rest of his teammates. Even with the big point spread, look for the home team to get up by double digits early and coast to an easy win and cover like the season opener at Houston.

Betting trends

• The total has gone under in all five of the Bears’ games against the Chiefs since 1996.
• The total has gone over in five of the Bears’ last six games on the road in October.
• The Chiefs are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, and all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.