Power Ranking College Football Conferences Heading into Week 6
The college football season is in full swing, and some analysts are already in full "playoff projection" mode, giving out their four-team brackets each week.
For the second straight season, the topic of which power conference will be left out of the national semifinals has already become a hot debate. Likewise, the Group of Five leagues are under the microscope as they race to see which one gets the coveted bid to the big New Year's Six bowls.
As we head into Week 6 of the college football season, let's take a look at how each conference has performed so far in 2015 and hand out some power rankings.
Everyone has their own individual ways of ranking conferences, but the way I'm going about it here is by overall strength of the league from top to bottom. To do this, I put each conference's programs into three tiers and compared the balances of power among the leagues.
- Contenders: These are the undefeated or one-loss teams that are still realistically in the race for the College Football Playoff—or a New Year's Six bid for the Group of Five conferences. For Power Five conferences, these are the teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25.
- Winning Records: These teams currently have winning overall records but aren't in the Top 25 or seriously in the race for a major bowl bid.
- Non-Winning Records: These teams are currently at .500 or worse on the season. Some still have a chance to rally and make a bowl, but these rankings are determined by what a conference has done heading into Week 6.
In order to separate the top leagues with similar breakdowns, losses against other Power Five conferences, Group of Five teams and even FCS teams weigh into some tough tiebreaker scenarios. Group of Five conferences are also compared by their performances against each other, with wins over Power Five schools and losses to FCS programs affecting their rankings.
Of course, there's no perfect system to rank conferences in college football, and discussions over which one is the best can get quite heated. Give us your take in the comments below.
10. Sun Belt
1 of 10
Contenders: N/A
Winning Records: Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, South Alabama
Non-Winning Records: Arkansas State, Georgia State, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe, Texas State, Troy, Idaho, New Mexico State
The Sun Belt's strongest candidate for a New Year's Six run appeared to be out of the running from the first game of the season.
Defending conference champion Georgia Southern was somewhat of a trendy upset pick in Week 1, but the Eagles were throttled at West Virginia by a score of 44-0. Georgia Southern has rebounded with four high-scoring wins and joined Appalachian State, which Clemson beat by 31, as the league's only one-loss schools.
A South Alabama team that only returned five starters this season has been a surprise so far in 2015, knocking off San Diego State on the road between blowout losses to Nebraska and NC State. UL-Monroe and Troy are the only other two schools that haven't lost outside of Power Five or Sun Belt competition.
The bottom of the conference has taken some rough hits, as six teams have only one victory this season. New Mexico State is still searching for its first win of 2015, and the Aggies lost to conference foe Georgia State—the same team that lost to both Charlotte and FCS team Liberty.
Without a true contender for one of the major bowls or a huge upset win to its name, the Sun Belt is still going to anchor any rankings of FBS conferences.
9. Mountain West
2 of 10
Contenders: No. 25 Boise State
Winning Records: New Mexico
Non-Winning Records: Air Force, Utah State, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State, San Jose State, Hawaii, Nevada, Fresno State, Wyoming
The Mountain West probably wants to hit the reset button on the entire 2015 season.
Top team Boise State is back in the Top 25 this week, and the Broncos are a favorite to return to a big-time bowl later this year. While the last-minute loss to BYU ended a dream of an undefeated run, Boise State has a season-opening win over Washington and a blowout victory over Virginia to its name.
But outside of Boise State, the league doesn't have anything to brag about right now. New Mexico's 3-2 start was propped up by easy matchups against Mississippi Valley State, winless Wyoming and Sun Belt struggler New Mexico State. Everyone else in the conference is either .500 or below heading into Week 6.
Not a single team in the Western division has a winning record, and division leaders UNLV and San Diego State each lost to a Group of Five team earlier this season. Hawaii's controversial win over the Pac-12's Colorado might be the best victory outside of Boise.
Boise State might snatch the Group of Five bid into the New Year's Six before it's all said and done, but the rest of the conference is dragging down its spot in these rankings. Hopefully some stronger teams will emerge in Mountain West action.
8. Conference USA
3 of 10
Contenders: Marshall, Western Kentucky
Winning Records: Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss
Non-Winning Records: Middle Tennessee State, Charlotte, FIU, Old Dominion, Rice, UTEP, FAU, UTSA, North Texas
Marshall and Western Kentucky were the Conference USA's best bets to make a run at the New Year's Six heading into the season, and both teams still have an outside chance thanks to some Power Five upsets.
The Thundering Herd, who has what is statistically the easiest schedule in the country, knocked off Purdue in Week 1 but lost by 11 to Ohio the following weekend. Western Kentucky defeated Vanderbilt in Week 1 but couldn't pull off a road upset at Indiana.
Those early losses have taken some of the shine off the Conference USA, which also has a pair of early winning teams in Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss. The Bulldogs went to triple overtime with Kansas State, while the Eagles lost by just eight at Nebraska.
The bottom of the conference has a few teams weighing it down, including a winless North Texas team and an FAU squad that lost by 18 at home to Buffalo. Newcomer Charlotte looks to be in for a long season after losing three straight games by a combined 103 points.
Still, the C-USA has a few more bright spots than the slow-starting Mountain West, and Marshall could challenge for the New Year's Six bid with the way its schedule is set for the rest of the season.
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7. MAC
4 of 10
Contenders: No. 24 Toledo, Ohio
Winning Records: Bowling Green
Non-Winning Records: Akron, Ball State, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Kent State, Northern Illinois, UMass, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Miami (Ohio)
Is this the year #MACtion makes a grand comeback? The early results are promising for the nation's premier destination for midweek football fireworks.
Toledo broke into the Top 25 with an impressive 4-0 start that included wins over Power Five opponents Arkansas and Iowa State in addition to a rout of Sun Belt bowl contender Arkansas State. As I wrote last month, the Rockets are perhaps the best shot the Group of Five has of putting an undefeated team into the postseason, and they're getting better each week.
Ohio could make a sneaky run this season, as its only loss of 2015 came by three points to Minnesota. Bowling Green has one of college football's most absurd offenses not named Baylor and a 2-0 record against the Big Ten.
Past those three teams, though, the MAC's quality starts to nosedive. Akron, Ball State, Central Michigan and Northern Illinois have only lost to Power Five or fellow MAC opponents, but the rest have taken some tough defeats for the league.
The MAC currently boasts the highest-ranked Group of Five team in college football and has a few additional teams that have either beaten Power Five teams or given them close contests. That should translate into some quality entertainment the rest of this season.
6. American
5 of 10
Contenders: Houston, Memphis, Navy, Temple
Winning Records: Cincinnati, ECU
Non-Winning Records: Tulane, Tulsa, UConn, USF, SMU, UCF
New Houston head coach Tom Herman has his Cougars off to an undefeated start this season, and he believes his new league is by far the best of any outside the Power Five.
"You talk about the non-Power Five conferences—it’s not even close to me in terms of competition between them," Herman told Stewart Mandel of FOX Sports. "There’s the Power Five, there’s us, and then the 'Group of Four,' if you will."
Herman is 100 percent correct in his assessment. Houston is one of four AAC teams currently sporting undefeated records. Three of them—Houston, Memphis and Temple—have knocked off Power Five opponents so far this season, and newcomer Navy has a chance of pulling off a big upset at Notre Dame this weekend.
The middle pairing of Cincinnati and ECU both have wins over ACC opponents, with the Bearcats beating Miami and the Pirates defeating Virginia Tech last weekend. The AAC's bottom tier, anchored by woeful UCF, has taken its lumps, but it's not worse than any other Group of Five league.
The AAC currently has four undefeated contenders for a New Year's Six bowl bid, and they each have chances to add even more big-time wins for the league this season. Like Herman said, it might be better to put this conference in a classification of its own.
5. ACC
6 of 10
Contenders: No. 6 Clemson, No. 12 Florida State
Winning Records: Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Miami (Florida), Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College
Non-Winning Records: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia
Heading into the season, some of the biggest knocks on the ACC were that it lacked a true powerhouse and had a small number of potential playoff teams. Heading into Week 6, the league looks like it has its top contender, but one of its preseason favorites has fallen way out of favor.
Clemson's win over Notre Dame last weekend sets the Tigers up for a strong run to a spot in the final four. Its toughest conference game—against a currently undefeated Florida State team that hasn't exactly blown anyone away this year—will be at home. Georgia Tech and South Carolina, two additional tests, are both 2-3.
"Clemson finally earned the signature win the ACC has been looking for," David Hale of ESPN.com wrote. "It wasn’t always pretty, but it was an important victory to announce that even if the ACC isn’t riding high, its elite teams can still be a force."
In the lower tiers, Duke, North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Syracuse each lost to other Power Five teams in nonconference play, while Miami and NC State are fresh off of their first losses thanks to ACC action. Georgia Tech's three straight losses have taken them out of playoff contention. Louisville, Virginia and Virginia Tech each have lost to a Power Five team and a Group of Five team this season.
Clemson and Florida State definitely have the talent to push into a playoff position this season. But compared to other conferences, the ACC just hasn't had enough firepower this season to challenge the other four powers.
4. Pac-12
7 of 10
Contenders: No. 5 Utah, No. 16 Stanford, No. 17 USC, No. 20 UCLA, No. 23 Cal
Winning Records: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon
Non-Winning Records: Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
The Pac-12 might be the conference that causes the greatest amount of arguments among fans. The league has a Top-Five team in Utah, but it also lost a trio of teams from the rankings in the first five weeks of 2015.
At the top, Utah became the hottest team in college football with a destruction of Oregon, which had already lost at Michigan State, in Autzen Stadium. The Utes also have a great-looking home win over what is now a ranked Michigan program, and they'll look to keep the momentum going Saturday against fellow undefeated squad Cal.
The one-loss teams in the Pac-12 have gone through some topsy-turvy weeks as of late. Stanford lost to Northwestern in Week 1 but rallied to knock off USC, which smashed an Arizona State team that UCLA lost to last weekend. All three are still in the hunt for a championship this season, but they each have tough roads the rest of the way.
Arizona, Arizona State (which also fell to Texas A&M in Week 1) and Oregon have each lost twice this season, knocking them from their preseason Top 25 spots. Colorado, a team with a winning record, lost at Hawaii. In the bottom tier, Oregon State lost to Michigan, Washington lost to Boise State and Washington State managed to knock off Rutgers after losing to a bad FCS program in Portland State.
The battle for the No. 1 through No. 4 spots in these rankings were tight, as these conferences had similar balances of power despite their differing numbers of teams. Based solely on the games so far this season, the Pac-12 has lagged slightly behind the top three.
3. Big Ten
8 of 10
Contenders: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 4 Michigan State, No. 13 Northwestern, No. 18 Michigan, No. 22 Iowa
Winning Records: Illinois, Indiana, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Non-Winning Records: Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska, Purdue
While the Big Ten's top two haven't quite played to the elite level many expected of them this season, the conference has gotten a bump from a few pleasant surprises in the Top 25.
Ohio State and Michigan State have locked down Top-Five spots as undefeated powerhouses, and either team might not fall from those ranks until they face each other in November. Northwestern is also rising high in the polls with its dominant defense and quality home win in Week 1 over a resurgent Stanford team.
Michigan's only loss this season was by seven points to what is now a Top-Five team in Utah, and the Wolverines will bring a shutout streak into their matchup against Northwestern this weekend. Iowa is undefeated as well, with Power Five victories over Iowa State and Pittsburgh.
The area where the Big Ten failed compared to the two conferences above it was the other winning-record teams' performances against Power Five opponents. Illinois took a lopsided loss at North Carolina, Minnesota fell to TCU at home, Wisconsin couldn't hang with Alabama and Penn State was stunned by Temple in Week 1. (One-loss Indiana, though, beat Wake Forest on the road.)
With a bottom tier that is far from dreadful and some bonus head-to-head wins, the Big Ten edges the Pac-12 in a tight race for the No. 3 spot in these rankings.
2. Big 12
9 of 10
Contenders: No. 2 TCU, No. 3 Baylor, No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 21 Oklahoma State
Winning Records: Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas Tech
Non-Winning Records: Iowa State, Texas, Kansas
It may have a couple of dysfunctional messes toward the bottom, but as Bleacher Report's Brian Leigh wrote last weekend, "the Big 12 has the top 30 percent" of any other conference.
"TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma looked keen in their conference openers, beating Texas (50-7), Texas Tech (63-35) and West Virginia (44-24), respectively," Leigh wrote. "All three looked equally impressive. All three are playing like playoff contenders."
The polls bumped TCU and Baylor up to No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, after their strong Week 5 performances. Oklahoma has joined them in the Top 10 with a road win over Tennessee to its name, and Oklahoma State is still undefeated at No. 21.
The Big 12's three winning-record teams outside the Top 25 have only lost to higher-ranked conference foes. West Virginia blew out fellow Power Five school Maryland earlier this season, and Texas Tech handled Arkansas away from home.
Those teams at the bottom are where the only trouble has been—Iowa State lost to Iowa and Toledo, Texas has only beaten Rice, and Kansas is arguably the worst team in the country—but the top and middle tiers are quite strong. So far this season, the smaller conference has the edge over their ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 brethren.
1. SEC
10 of 10
Contenders: No. 7 LSU, No. 8 Alabama, No. 9 Texas A&M, No. 11 Florida, No. 14 Ole Miss, No. 19 Georgia
Winning Records: Kentucky, Missouri, Auburn, Mississippi State
Non-Winning Records: Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Yes, you may continue to shout about "SEC bias" if you so choose. But right now, from top to bottom, the SEC is still the most competitive conference in college football—even though it's outside of the Top Five for the first time since October 2010.
"Every time the conference has a bad result, a good portion of fans and analysts rush to the 'Well, the SEC's clearly overrated/sliding/not No. 1!' reaction," SB Nation's Bill Connelly wrote in his analytical breakdown of the conferences last week. "But this is still the best league, and it's not even close, no matter which measure you choose."
No other conference has six ranked teams, and the one-loss ones still have a great chance to make the playoff if they run the table. Against fellow Power Five conferences, the SEC can boast Alabama's win over Wisconsin, Texas A&M's win over Arizona State and Auburn's win over Louisville.
Toward the bottom of the SEC, Tennessee has that double-OT loss to what is now a Top-10 Oklahoma team on top of its back-to-back conference defeats. Arkansas (which lost to Texas Tech at home) and Vanderbilt each have a loss to a Group of Five team, but the vast majority of the league has only lost to each other.
With the way the first five weeks have gone, the conference is in danger of cutting its own throat in the playoff race, as every contender still has to play at least one other ranked team in conference this season. The middle-tier teams and even a couple of lower-tier ones are talented enough to ruin seasons, too, keeping the SEC at No. 1.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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