Bowl Projections 2015: Complete Playoff Predictions and More Before Week 6

And you thought the end of the BCS was going to make everything clearer in college football.

The first year of the College Football Playoff was filled with controversy after TCU and Baylor were left on the outside looking in, and this season is already shaping up to create more hand-wringing and difficult decisions for the selection committee.

The SEC and Pac-12 are loaded with talented teams, but they are also gradually beating each other up to the point where everyone will likely have at least one loss by season’s end in those two leagues. There are three ranked squads in the Big Ten not named Ohio State and Michigan (and one of them is undefeated Northwestern!), and the Big 12 once again has TCU and Baylor near the top of the polls.

Only four teams can get into the playoffs, although there appear to be many deserving candidates in the early going. Fortunately, there is plenty of football remaining for the best to separate themselves.

With that in mind, here is a look at a playoff projection heading into Week 6 of the 2015 campaign.

Playoff Projections

Matchup	Bowl Game	Date
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Utah	Orange Bowl	Dec. 31
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 3 Alabama	Cotton Bowl	Dec. 31

Ohio State has looked far from dominant this season, and there is plenty of reason for concern outside of the close victories. The Buckeyes already lost two wide receivers for the season to injury (Noah Brown and Corey Smith), and the depth in the secondary is paper-thin with an injury to Cam Burrows and Damon Webb’s suspension.

Still, the defending champs are loaded with talent, Ezekiel Elliott is carrying the team on his back and the Michigan State showdown is at home. It would be far too premature to jump off this team’s bandwagon like so many did last year after it lost to Virginia Tech. The Buckeyes are not playing their best football, but an undefeated defending champion is not getting left out of the playoffs.

Just ask last season’s Florida State squad.

Baylor will get in from the Big 12 because of TCU’s defensive injuries. The Horned Frogs have already lost six players for the season, and that will eventually lead to a loss when the Bears’ high-powered offense comes to town.

Baylor is averaging a ridiculous 63.8 points a game this season and will overwhelm a TCU defense that finally found its footing Saturday against Texas after two straight lackluster performances.

Utah will represent the Pac-12 and get a shot at the defending champions in the semifinals. The early-season win over Michigan continues to look better as the Wolverines climb the rankings under Jim Harbaugh, and games against Arizona State, California and UCLA are all at home. 

A trip to USC will be tricky, and the Utes could even lose, but they will bounce back to win the Pac-12 title and earn a playoff nod for surviving the difficult conference.

Speaking of surviving difficult conferences, Alabama will once again make the playoffs as the eventual SEC champion. The Crimson Tide eviscerated previously undefeated Georgia Saturday and looked much improved from the group that lost to Ole Miss. LSU and dangerous Leonard Fournette come to Alabama, and the trip to Texas A&M will not be a problem because the Aggies cannot stop the run. 

In fact, Texas A&M is 86th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game and won’t be able to contain bowling ball Derrick Henry in that head-to-head showdown. The Crimson Tide will get into the playoffs with a single loss.

Week 6 Game to Watch with Playoff Implications: No. 23 California at No. 5 Utah

While Utah has drawn most of the headlines from the Pac-12 this season with a victory over Michigan and a stunning 62-20 beatdown of Oregon, California is quietly undefeated behind the unstoppable right arm of quarterback Jared Goff.

The Golden Bears have victories over Texas, Washington and Washington State, but Saturday’s showdown with Utah is their first chance to make a profound national statement. The problem for Goff and company is that means dealing with the Utes’ stout defense that held the uptempo Ducks to a mere 20 points on the road, with seven of them coming in garbage time.

Utah is yet to allow more than 24 points in a single game, and the aggressive group led the nation with 55 sacks in 2014. The defense returned six starters in the front seven coming into the 2015 campaign and will look to make life difficult on Goff in the pocket.

Coach Kyle Whittingham suggested that is the plan, per Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle: “If you just let [Goff] sit back there and let him have time to go through his read progression, he’s going to complete the ball almost every time.” 

Dane Brugler of CBS Sports pointed to that defense and Goff as the most intriguing matchup of the contest:

In theory, blitzing Goff seems to be the right answer, but ESPN Stats & Information (via Ivan Maisel of ESPN.com) pointed out the quarterback has thrown 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions the past two seasons when blitzed.

Goff exploits defenses with quick-hitting passes, and his accuracy and rapid release allow him to drive the Golden Bears down the field on a consistent basis. However, he also boasts a strong enough arm to beat defenders over the top for big plays when they show press coverage and bite on short routes. 

He has even earned comparisons to another famous California quarterback, as ESPN College Football highlighted:

In all, Goff has 1,630 passing yards and 15 touchdown throws in five games, and his team is yet to score less than 30 points in a single contest.

Rather than flat-out stopping the star quarterback, Utah will attempt to keep him on the sidelines with a strong rushing attack and clock control.

Devontae Booker has 443 rushing yards and four touchdowns in four games, while quarterback Travis Wilson tallied 100 rushing yards and a score on the ground against Oregon and also threw four touchdowns for good measure.

California is a middling 72nd in the country in yards allowed per game and gave up 44 points to a Texas offense that looked lost a number of times this season. Goff is a brilliant playmaker and could be the No. 1 pick in the next NFL draft, but even he won’t be enough Saturday as Utah dictates the tempo on the ground against a vulnerable California defense. 

Prediction: Utah 31, California 23