Everything You Need to Know About the Dallas Mavericks' 2015-16 NBA Season
The Dallas Mavericks' 2014-15 season had two distinct phases: one in which they were pretty good for the usual reason (smooth offensive flow), and one in which they had Rajon Rondo as their starting point guard.
They weren't so great in that second phase.
The Rondo trade cut a stark dividing line down the middle of the Mavs' campaign, and as we forecast their prospects for the upcoming season, the very best news may be that Rondo is in Sacramento now. Dallas was 19-8 with a net rating of plus-8.5 when they acquired Rondo on Dec. 20. From that point on, they went 31-24 with a net rating of plus-1.1, according to NBA.com. Though Rondo's arrival coincided with mild defensive improvements, the scoring attack cratered.
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As a result, a 50-win season and the No. 7 seed felt like something of a disappointment—one that stung even more after a quick five-game exit in the first round of the playoffs.
Rondo wasn't the only significant rotation piece to skip town this offseason, though, and most of the other exits opened up holes in the rotation. Unless the aging process spares Dirk Nowitzki and the injury gods are merciful to Chandler Parsons and Wesley Matthews, Dallas could be in for a rough season.
Key Additions/Subtractions
- Additions: Deron Williams (free agent), Wesley Matthews (free agent), Zaza Pachulia (trade), Samuel Dalembert (free agent), JaVale McGee (free agent), Jeremy Evans (free agent), John Jenkins (free agent), Justin Anderson (draft)
- Subtractions: Monta Ellis (signed with Indiana Pacers), Tyson Chandler (signed with Phoenix Suns), Rajon Rondo (signed with Sacramento Kings), Amar'e Stoudemire (signed with Miami Heat), Al-Farouq Aminu (signed with Portland Trail Blazers)
The name you don't see in the "additions" section, DeAndre Jordan, is the one that defined the Mavericks' offseason. After agreeing to a multiyear deal in principle, Jordan reneged and returned to the Los Angeles Clippers. Whether Jordan would have elevated Dallas to the middle tier of the Western Conference playoff picture is hard to say, but he clearly would have made it better than it will be with the combination of Pachulia, Dalembert and McGee taking his minutes at center.
Williams and Matthews give the Mavericks a backcourt loaded with question marks. Williams' game has been in decline for the past few seasons, and Matthews' recovery from a torn Achilles could keep him out for the first few months of the season.
Though Rondo's departure is probably a net gain, losing Ellis removes speed and shot creation from an offense that needs it. Despite a brutal second half last year (which coincided with Rondo's arrival, by the way), Ellis was an integral part of Dallas' attack—one it hasn't replaced.
Finally, Chandler's move to Phoenix leaves the Mavericks without a backbone.
Few interior defenders had more responsibilities than Chandler did last year, and even fewer could have handled the difficult task of erasing mistakes made by subpar teammates like he did. Doubling the pain of his exit, Dallas hasn't replaced him with anyone nearly as effective as a roll man on offense. When Chandler set hard screens up top and dove to the hole, defenders had to sag in to honor him, which opened up shooters on the perimeter.
Pachulia and Dalembert won't command nearly the same respect.
Storylines to Watch
The Mavericks have had shaky offseasons before. In fact, they've even lost Chandler before (2011) and still managed to recover. Thanks largely to Nowitzki, they've made the playoffs every year but one (2012-13) since 2000-01.
The difference now is that Nowitzki may not be superstar enough to compensate for the missing talent elsewhere on the roster. The Diggler is one of the best players in league history, and he's easily the most dominant jump-shooting big we've ever seen. But he's also 37 years old and coming off of a season that revealed significant signs of decline.
"Last year I felt really good in the month of November, I started off feeling good and doing well and then I kind of fell in a hole from December to March," Nowitzki told Tim Cato of MavsMoneyball.com.
Having lost nearly all of his lateral mobility, Nowitzki became a red-alert defender in 2014-15. He required constant emergency help from teammates because opponents relentlessly attacked him in space.
B/R's Dan Favale laid it out in Disney terms during the playoffs last year:
In the past, Nowitzki's prowess as a shooter on the other end made up for his defensive woes.
Dirk's true shooting percentage dipped to 56 percent last season, the lowest since his rookie year. That's still a good number, but not one that can prop up an offense on its own. With Chandler and Ellis gone and Matthews and Parsons coming off significant surgeries, it might take a vintage Nowitzki season to keep the Mavericks in the playoff conversation.
Unfortunately, even if Nowitzki regains his efficiency, he's in for a decline in volume. Cato also reported head coach Rick Carlisle intends to limit the German star to 26 minutes per game this year.
Maybe Nowitzki's got another great year in him, but everything we know about aging and everything we saw last year suggests that's unlikely.
X-Factor: Deron Williams
The Mavericks aren't built for the future, so they don't need Williams to be the answer at the point for the next five years. But in order to sniff the postseason, they need him to be pretty good for at least one.
Williams posted the lowest effective field-goal percentage of his career last season (44.3 percent), which doesn't bode well. And even where there are positive signs, like the fact that Williams got to the rim more frequently last year than he had since his Utah Jazz days, there were corresponding negative ones: He finished a career-worst 45.7 percent of his shots inside three feet.
If Williams can't be a scoring threat (particularly one that collapses the defense on drives), Dallas will struggle to create consistent offense.
Carlisle is as tactically clever as anyone in the league, and if the 31-year-old Williams' old form is hiding somewhere, Carlisle is the man to help him find it.
But if Williams is already too far gone, Dallas will be in trouble.
Making the Leap: Justin Anderson
We've got to reach here in selecting a rookie as a possible leaper, but only because Dallas is totally bereft of youthful potential.
Justin Anderson stands a good chance of starting at one of the wing positions with Parsons and Matthews both at risk of missing the season opener. The rookie from Virginia flashed a sweet three-point stroke during summer-league play, hitting 38.5 percent of his attempts from deep. If any of that accuracy carries over into the games that actually count, Anderson will be a viable rotation player even when Dallas' veteran wings are healthy.
Best-Case Scenario
If Matthews becomes the first player since Dominique Wilkins to return to his previous form after an Achilles tear, he and Parsons are both back on the court by the end of November, Nowitzki puts together another strong year and Williams has something left in the tank, Dallas could win 47 games and secure the No. 8 playoff seed.
That's assuming terrific luck on the health front as well.
If things play out that way, the Mavs training staff will get an immediate induction into the Hall of Fame.
Worst-Case Scenario
The Mavericks are a terrifying combination of old, injury-hit and thin. It's not a question of whether injuries will hit. It's when. And with both Parsons and Matthews as current question marks, an inexperienced/underwhelming bench is already in line for more minutes than its talent suggests it deserves.
There's a very real scenario where Dallas doesn't get Matthews or Parsons back for at least a couple of months and both Nowitzki and Williams either wear down or break down. If that happens, it's entirely possible the Mavericks will go into the tank.
Remember, this team owes its first-round pick to the Boston Celtics if it falls outside the top seven. If it appears the Mavericks will have to totally rebuild next summer, losing enough games to retain that selection could become this season's main goal.
Predictions
The Mavericks owe it to Nowitzki to remain at least semi-competitive for as long as he's around, so it's difficult to envision a total worst-case-scenario teardown. At the same time, the age, lack of a bench and injury concerns are real.
Defensively, there's little hope this team ranks outside the bottom 10, but the Mavericks should be able to score at no worse than a league-average rate as long as Nowitzki and Carlisle are involved. Assuming abbreviated seasons from Parsons and Matthews, that offense-defense combo still doesn't amount to one that suggests a playoff berth is ahead.
It's not impossible; it's just highly unlikely.
The Mavericks have been remarkably consistent since the turn of the century—nearly to the extent of the San Antonio Spurs during that span. But Dallas didn't go out and get its LaMarcus Aldridge this season, and in fact, it replaced more reliable talent with shakier options.
All told, it's hard to see the Mavericks doing more than fighting for that No. 8 spot in the West before bowing out down the stretch.
Final Record: 34-48
Division Standing: Fifth in the Southwest
Playoff Berth: No
Follow Grant Hughes on Twitter @gt_hughes.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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