Which 1-Loss Team Has Best Shot of Making College Football Playoff?

Oh, how easily we forget. 

This time last year, Ohio State was officially out of the College Football Playoff conversation after losing to Virginia Tech (so, too, was the Big Ten following an abysmal Week 2). Except, the Buckeyes weren't out of the playoff race. They never were. And, well, you know how the rest of the season worked out. 

But when Stanford lost to Northwestern 16-6 in Week 1, did fans and media alike collectively shut the Cardinal out of the playoff discussion prematurely as well? Recall that Stanford was ESPN college football analyst Desmond Howard's pick to win the national championship: 

Not long after Stanford's loss to the Wildcats, Howard made light of his own pick on Twitter. He also took a considerable amount of heat for it: 

However, maybe Stanford deserves more credit. 

Entering Week 6, Stanford has life again and its path to the playoff as a one-loss team is still clear. For that matter, the parallels between Stanford and Ohio State are undeniable. That's not to say Stanford will win the national title or is as stocked with NFL-caliber talent as Ohio State, but there are similarities. Losing wasn't the end for the Buckeyes, and it's not the end for Stanford or any one of the one-loss teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25: 

Team	Record	AP Rank
Alabama	4-1	8
Ole Miss	4-1	14
Notre Dame	4-1	15
Stanford	4-1	16
USC	3-1	17
Michigan	4-1	18
Georgia	4-1	19
UCLA	4-1	20
Boise State	4-1	25

Both were surprisingly outmatched in an early-season game they were expected to win. Both, when counted out, began improving. The Ohio State everyone saw in the playoff wasn't the same team everyone saw lose to the Hokies. 

Similarly, the Cardinal looked lifeless against Northwestern. Maybe it was a matter of traveling east combined with an early kickoff time, but head coach David Shaw's team was a mess. The single most surprising part was that Stanford was getting blown up in the trenches.

Win or lose, the Cardinal have prided themselves on being a physical football team. No matter what, teams playing Stanford were going to feel it the next day. That wasn't the Stanford on display in Evanston, though. If anything, it was the other way around. 

But, like Ohio State in 2014, Stanford is getting better. If the playoff selection from last year has taught us anything, it's that the committee takes season-long improvement into consideration. We're nowhere near the end of the '15 season, but according to F/+ rankings from FootballOutsiders.com, the Cardinal are one of the top four teams in college football, along with Alabama, Clemson and LSU: 

Since losing to Northwestern—who are proving to be anything but a fluke, by the way; the Wildcats might win the Big Ten West Division with its defense alone—the Cardinal are averaging more than 42 points per game and have beaten USC. Quarterback Kevin Hogan has turned things around after a poor opening-week performance. The senior currently has the third-best passer rating (169.77) and the second-most yards per attempt (9.6) in the Pac-12 despite attempting only 24 passes per game. 

ESPN.com's David Lombardi, who ranked Hogan atop his Pac-12 quarterback power rankings list, wrote the following: 

"

He delivered a virtually flawless performance on a bad ankle in the Cardinal's 55-17 romp over Arizona. Hogan's 89.4 completion percentage (17-of-19) was the best of his career, and several of his throws popped on film. One dart down the seam to Devon Cajuste really stood out: Hogan evaded pressure by moving forward in the pocket and rifled a precise laser downfield while shuffling.

"

It helps tremendously that the running game is working, and Stanford's offense is nothing without the running game or an every-down back. Running back Christian McCaffrey leads the Pac-12 in all-purpose yards per game (229.8) and the Cardinal ground attack ranks in the top third of the conference. 

The defense is second in the Pac-12 behind only Washington in yards per play allowed (4.78). In short,  Stanford is playing like one would expect it to play. It's playing like a team with an identity.

That's good news for Shaw's team moving forward because its next big test comes right away in Week 6 against UCLA. The Bruins might be coming off a loss, but they're still considered one of the top teams in the Pac-12. However, Stanford has UCLA's number, having won their last seven games against Bruins dating back to 2009.  

The rest of the schedule sets up well. In a statement no one thought they'd ever make, the Cardinal won't face Utah out of the Pac-12 South in the regular season. The Utes, following their 62-20 win over Oregon, are the toast of the conference: 

"

Stanford's David Shaw said "to the outside world, the Utah-Oregon game was crazy," but not to those in the Pac-12.

— Matthew Piper (@matthew_piper) September 29, 2015"

So long as Stanford can navigate through the next month unscathed, it gets its toughest stretch on paper in the month of November: versus Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame. All three games are at home, however. Oregon has numerous problems in pass defense and at quarterback. Notre Dame has lost several key starters to injury. Part of making a run is getting the right breaks. Potentially catching Oregon in a down year and a snake-bitten Notre Dame could be huge for Stanford. 

And, in theory, if Stanford really is turning itself around, it should be playing its best football against its toughest opponents in November (and presumably the first week of December). There's no better time to catch the eye of the selection committee than at season's end. 

"

Look at Stanford (3-1) remaining schedule: 1) Home-heavy 2) Only road games: WSU, CU. 3) PLENTY of playoff bullets. pic.twitter.com/kyVEjvnIM2

— J.B. Long (@JB_Long) September 29, 2015"

But what happens if Stanford loses another game? For all we know, it could happen this Saturday. Playoff access would then depend on the entire college football landscape. 2015 might be the year a two-loss conference champion gets into the field. 

There's a lot of football left to be played. Which teams emerge in the playoff conversation could, and likely will change multiple times in the coming weeks and months. It looks like it's shaping up to be that sort of season. 

If we've learned our lesson from 2014, though, it's that teams change. Some for the better, some not. Over the last month, Stanford has changed for the better. If it keeps winning, the right people will begin to notice. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.