College Football Playoff Preview: Good Luck with This Mess, Selection Committee

Dear College Football Playoff Selection Committee member, 

I hope this message finds you well. The last time we spoke, I was writing you from Indianapolis hours after Ohio State’s magnificent demolition of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game last December. My message at the time, with an impossible task directly in front of you, was simple: Drop everything and run from it all as fast as you can.

As it turns out, including Ohio State in the College Football Playoff was brilliant. Well done. I hope you took a much-deserved victory lap and enjoyed a nice vacation. You earned it.

"Generally, we think last year went very well, and we were very pleased with the reaction from fans across the country," selection committee chairman Jeff Long told ESPN.com earlier this offseason. "Our goal, really, is to build upon that success."

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Things did go shockingly smooth even with some last-minute chaos. Now that college football is back in our lives, I have only one other piece of advice to offer before you unveil your first College Football Playoff standings Tuesday, Nov. 3: Drop everything if you haven’t already and run from it all as fast as you can. 

The season at hand is madness. It’s unpredictable. It’s strange. It’s wildly entertaining from a distance, although soon there will be no boundary between you two. The bedlam is coming, and it will be up to you to separate four teams in a sea of mediocrity and volatility.

Forget about separating a top four at this point. How about just one team? 

Sure, there’s a lot of time for things to sort themselves out. Perhaps it will all be sorted nice and neat by Dec. 6, the day the final College Football Playoff standings are released. Perhaps there will be four defined teams and zero controversy to speak of. Perhaps this is all pre-emptive panic with the first standings still weeks away. 

But given everything we’ve seen, all the bizarre turns that only seem to be gaining momentum, perhaps it’s best you just run regardless.

As for the teams on the rise, squads losing ground, the team we penciled right into the playoff and other developments, let’s have a look.

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Utah: By not playing in Week 5, Utah drastically improved its playoff standing. With four Associated Press Top 10 teams suffering losses, the Utes inched closer to the top while sitting on the couch. It was a good week for a bye. Now, with a week light on major matchups and a prime-time game with Cal on deck Saturday, No. 5 Utah can further assure the masses it belongs in the College Football Playoff conversation.

Clemson: Sure, Notre Dame was dealing with a slew of injuries, and the Tigers' monstrous lead nearly came undone. But in beating the Irish 24-22—or better yet, not losing—Clemson kept its clean resume intact. The schedule is by no means easy, although the toughest regular-season road game might be against Miami or NC State. As long as the Tigers keep winning, regardless of what happens with the rest of the conference, Clemson will stay in the conversation.

Oklahoma: The team that was drastically overhyped heading into last season suddenly looks exceptionally dangerous one year later. Oklahoma’s 44-24 victory over a quality West Virginia opponent showcased just how balanced this team has become. There’s a legitimate chance that the Sooners will be unbeaten as they head to Baylor on Nov. 14. If that’s the case, look out.

Status: Quietly making up ground

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Ole Miss: Losing to Florida in spectacular fashion, 38-10, is by no means a deathblow. It’s not ideal, but now is the time to lose. There is still time to repair resumes, and the Rebels will have ample opportunities to showcase their worth. Ole Miss draws undefeated Texas A&M and LSU at home in the next six weeks, which will be more than enough to climb back up. The Rebels still have to win those games, though. The room for error is gone.

Georgia: On the topic of SEC teams looking completely overwhelmed in Week 5, here’s Georgia. The Bulldogs’ soggy 38-10 loss to Alabama was incredibly disappointing, and it certainly puts a halt to their College Football Playoff run for the time being. Now, there’s no shame in losing to Nick Saban, even at home. It’s how Georgia lost—looking inept in pretty much every phase—that was deeply concerning. Like Ole Miss, there’s still time to pick up the pieces. But Georgia best start now.

UCLA: Week 5 didn’t feel like the time for UCLA’s season to take a turn—not when the Bruins manhandled Arizona seven days earlier. Arizona State, however, figuratively placed C4 in Jim Mora’s mailbox and blew the thing up in the middle of the night. Now, with a defense that has endured a slew of meaningful injuries, the Bruins will have to bounce back. Even with the losses, there’s still talent to do just that. But the schedule doesn’t get any easier from this point on, which makes things rather tricky.

How Will the Committee View Ohio State? How Should We?

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The parallels to 2014 Florida State are already being drawn, and in many ways, they feel somewhat appropriate in the early going.

National championship, check. Loads of NFL talent still on the roster, check. Incredible expectations coming in, check. Unimpressive (but still undefeated) against inferior competition, check.

Yes, the invincible Ohio State has looked quite vulnerable. The Buckeyes got 274 yards rushing from running back Ezekiel Elliott against Indiana—a Herculean effort—to stay unbeaten. And they needed every single yard.

Outside of Elliott, the offense really has never looked comfortable. While Cardale Jones will get the brunt of the blame, the offensive line, wide receivers and play-calling have also been spotty. Turnovers have plagued this group, too, as the Buckeyes' 13 giveaways have them tied at No. 117 in the nation. 

"We're turning the ball over at an alarming rate," Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer told reporters following the 34-27 win. "That's obviously a difference in the game. And at some point, that's going to bite you. We have to fix that."  

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There’s still time for Ohio State to repair the broken machine. The committee won’t have to put its thoughts on paper for another few weeks, and by then the Buckeyes could look like their bulldozing selves. The talent is there. The defense is still dominant. The dormant giant might finally wake up. Or, maybe it won’t.

Ohio State will play Maryland, Penn State and Rutgers before the first standings are released. While no game should be considered a sure thing at this point, the timing of these three winnable contests doesn’t hurt.

If the picture remains hazy and Ohio State’s sloppy play continues—even in victories—the committee will have a difficult time assessing the Buckeyes. But while Ohio State’s struggles are noteworthy, there’s not exactly a long list of teams passing by it.

Is the Playoff Ready to Embrace Non-Power Brands? 

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Year one of the College Football Playoff was a brilliant reality, and the unprecedented television ratings told a tremendous tale.

Ohio State, Florida State, Oregon and Alabama—four of the nation’s most watched and followed programs—made up the first postseason tournament. Oh, the money was falling from the sky.

What happens, however, when the playoff includes a Utah? Or a Northwestern? Or an Iowa? Or what about a Toledo? The Rockets, with wins over Arkansas and Iowa State, have an opportunity to go undefeated with a schedule that is serviceable enough.

If that is the case—and the madness plays out accordingly for the teams near the top—will they be given a shot? 

Danny Johnston/Associated Press

"There's obviously the big brand names out there that carry the weight just by name recognition alone," Utah coach Kyle Whittingham told Heather Dinich of ESPN.com. "For good reason. Those programs have been successful and on the radar for a lot of years, that's why they have a name brand. We just have to keep doing our thing. It all boils down to getting the job done on the field. That is the bottom line."

He’s right. But that can’t eliminate the natural bias that has been building up for decades. With a room full of human beings now picking the playoff—a room that has celebrated college football’s defined hierarchy for longer than most of us have been alive—will the “little guys” truly ever get a fair shake?

Maybe it won’t come to that. Maybe the power brands will rally and converge Dec. 6, just like they did last year. Or maybe, in such a strange, unpredictable season, the College Football Playoff will welcome a batch of unfamiliar faces to the fold.