College Football Week 6 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Another tough week has dropped my against-the-spread record below 50 percent, but I return for Week 6 undeterred.
This is only slightly here and there, but with handicapping experts such as Todd Fuhrman sitting at 6-14 in the Las Vegas Hilton NFL SuperContest, I feel much better about my own struggles in the college game.
This happens to the best of us (and also, apparently, to me).
As always, feel free to chime in below with your opinions or questions about the picks. I'll explain my rationale beneath each game, but we can always dive deeper. Just remember to keep it civil and that no one here hates your team.
The line is our only enemy.
Washington at No. 17 USC
1 of 11
The Line: USC (-16.5)
The Sark Bowl pits USC head coach Steve Sarkisian against his former school, Washington, for the first time since he returned to Los Angeles.
The Trojans rebounded from a humbling loss to Stanford with a 42-14 win at Arizona State two weeks ago and are rested from a Week 5 bye. They have also played above the 95th percentile in three-fourths of their games.
Washington has improved since its ugly Week 1 loss at Boise State, but true freshman quarterback Jake Browning regressed against Cal after a strong game against Utah State, and this is his first road start since playing on the blue turf in early September.
The Huskies' best chance to win is by forcing turnovers, but USC quarterback Cody Kessler has thrown just seven interceptions in his last 726 pass attempts—fewer than one per 100 attempts—so they might be left waiting for the Trojans to make mistakes.
The Pick: USC (-16.5)
No. 10 Oklahoma vs. Texas
2 of 11
The Line: Oklahoma (-17)
Something's rotten in the state of Texas, and it's not TCU or Baylor.
The Longhorns imploded last week in Fort Worth, losing to the Horned Frogs 50-7 and dropping to 1-4, all while players retweeted Internet trolls and bickered with each other through the media. Second-year head coach Charlie Strong has lost control of the country's most expensive program and now faces questions about his job security.
But Texas has entered the Red River Shootout under similar conditions in recent years. After starting 3-2 under Mack Brown two years ago, Texas throttled Oklahoma 36-20. Last year, even though the Longhorns lost, they hung close in a five-point game.
Oklahoma is the far stronger team and just played its best game of the year in a 20-point win over West Virginia, but Texas should come out strong with its season—and its sanity—at stake against its biggest rival. There's a chance it wilts instead of blooms under adversity, but Strong is too good of a coach to let that happen in two straight weeks.
The Pick: Texas (+17)
Navy at No. 15 Notre Dame
3 of 11
The Line: Notre Dame (-14.5)
Navy lands Notre Dame in a perfect trap-game scenario: after last week's road trip to Clemson and before next week's showdown with USC.
The scenario looked better before Notre Dame lost to the Tigers—there's no way it comes out flat after its first loss of the season—but this game still means more to the Midshipmen, for whom it is basically the Super Bowl, than it does to the Irish.
Notre Dame showed well against Georgia Tech's triple-option three weeks ago, but the Yellow Jackets then lost to Duke and North Carolina, which slightly mutes the shine of what seemed like a signature win. Navy also ranks 14 spots higher (No. 21) than Georgia Tech (No. 35) on Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings, so you know its 4-0 record, despite coming against subpar teams, is no fluke.
Navy is also 20-9 against the spread as an underdog and 14-5 as a road underdog since 2009. It's lost the last two meetings with the Irish by fewer combined points (14) than Saturday's spread (14.5). Plus Notre Dame has failed to cover in four of its last five games after a loss.
That's a lot working in Navy's favor.
The Pick: Navy (+14.5)
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No. 13 Northwestern at No. 18 Michigan
4 of 11
The Line: Michigan (-7.5)
Michigan's defense has pitched two straight shutouts and allowed just seven points in its last 15 quarters.
Northwestern's defense pitched a shutout against Minnesota in Week 5 and held Stanford, an apparently strong offense, to six points in Week 1.
There's a reason this over/under rests at 35.
It's failed for me over the past few weekends, but I still like backing underdogs in games with low totals. The methodology just makes sense. If only so many points will be scored, then only so big of a lead can be taken. It's unlikely either team wins by a touchdown.
I'll gladly take the 7.5-point buffer.
The Pick: Northwestern (+7.5)
No. 19 Georgia at Tennessee
5 of 11
The Line: Georgia (-3)
The more it looks like South Carolina is terrible, the worse Georgia's resume becomes.
The Bulldogs routed the Gamecocks in Week 3, but before that they struggled at Vanderbilt, and after that they played sloppy against Southern and had their bell rung at home by Alabama.
Georgia needs this win, but Tennessee, like, really needs this win after competitive losses to Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas. The Vols have lost 27 of their last 28 games against ranked teams, but they're also one of just six teams in the country to hold a 13-point lead in each of its games this season.
They haven't closed the deal, but they have done a lot of things well. Plus head coach Butch Jones is 2-0 against the spread versus Georgia.
The Pick: Tennessee (+3)
Arkansas at No. 8 Alabama
6 of 11
The Line: Alabama (-16.5)
Both of these teams got back on track in Week 5—Alabama with a big win at Georgia, and Arkansas with a close win at Tennessee.
The Crimson Tide played their way back into playoff contention, while the Razorbacks avoided their fourth straight loss.
That second point is misleading, however, since Arkansas also played well against Texas A&M two weeks ago. It blew that game late and lost in overtime but still performed in the 74th percentile of the S&P+ ratings. A road win over Tennessee was no fluke.
The same could be said of last year's close loss to Alabama, when the Razorbacks uglied things up and held the Crimson Tide to 14 points. Arkansas relies on the run like Georgia, but unlike the Bulldogs they can also pass when necessary. As long as quarterback Brandon Allen keeps playing well, it should score enough points to stay close.
Alabama, for the record, is also 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 home games, including 0-3 so far this season.
The Pick: Arkansas (+16.5)
No. 21 Oklahoma State at West Virginia
7 of 11
The Line: West Virginia (-7)
I've been hard on Oklahoma State and still think they're overrated. I didn't rank the Cowboys on my ballot for the B/R poll.
However, I think this line is an overreaction. Mike Gundy's team looked poor at Kansas State last week, needing a free first down for which the Big 12 has already apologized to beat the Wildcats' fifth-string quarterback. Everyone who watched that game is now eager to fade the 'Pokes.
But equally unimpressive last week were the Mountaineers, who laid an egg in their first big test of the season and lost 44-24 at Oklahoma. According to the S&P+ ratings, they performed in the 28th percentile, while Oklahoma State performed in the 68th percentile at KSU.
And yet this line is weighted in favor of West Virginia?
The Pick: Oklahoma State (+7)
No. 11 Florida at Missouri
8 of 11
The Line: Florida (-4.5)
My, what a difference a year makes.
Less than 12 months after beating Florida 42-13 in Gainesville, Missouri, the two-time reigning SEC East champ, is unranked and catching 4.5 points against the No. 11 Gators in Columbia.
Advanced stats are split on these teams, which for the purpose of making picks makes them useless. The FEI ratings have Mizzou No. 29 and Florida No. 31, and thus project the Tigers to win by four points. The S&P+ ratings have Florida at No. 5 and Mizzou at No. 101, and thus project the Gators to win by four touchdowns.
What this basically comes down to is whether Florida gets up for the game. The Tigers catch the Gators after two emotional wins and before a marquee road trip to LSU. On paper, this is logically a trap game against the weakest of those four teams.
However, because of Missouri's success over the past two seasons, especially last year in The Swamp, it's doubtful the Gators overlook Saturday's game. In that case, they should cover this line with comfort.
Replacing Maty Mauk with Drew Lock was long overdue, but despite Lock's considerable upside, he is still a true freshman quarterback making his second career start against an angry Florida defense.
The Pick: Florida (-4.5)
Miami at No. 12 Florida State
9 of 11
The Line: Florida State (-9.5)
Last year's Florida State team was difficult to peg.
This year's Florida State team is even harder to figure out.
The offense led by former Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson has looked stagnant in ACC road games against Boston College and Wake Forest, but the defense led by all-world defensive back Jalen Ramsey has been scrappier and better than almost any unit in college football.
The Noles' saving grace on offense has been running back Dalvin Cook, but the sophomore tweaked his hamstring against Wake Forest and is day-to-day and questionable for Saturday's game.
"[He] won't do anything the next day or two for sure," head coach Jimbo Fisher said Monday, per quotes released by the school. "[But] it wasn't as drastic and as bad as we think."
If Cook misses the game or plays any anything less than 100 percent, FSU will have a hard time covering. Miami has played it well the past two seasons, and despite last week's loss to Cincinnati, the Hurricanes have for the most part looked strong this year.
Head coach Al Golden is (deservedly) on the hot seat, but he can keep his team within two scores in Tallahassee.
The Pick: Miami (+9.5)
No. 23 California at No. 5 Utah
10 of 11
The Line: Utah (-6.5)
Time has made Utah's resume make look stronger. The team's seven-point win over Michigan looked average in the moment, but it looks great now that the Wolverines are 4-1 and ranked No. 3 in the S&P+ ratings.
Time has made Cal's resume look weaker. Its one-point win over Texas looked average in the moment, but looks below-average now that the Longhorns are 1-4 and just lost 50-7 at TCU.
In their most recent showings, Utah beat Oregon 62-20 in Autzen Stadium while Cal barely squeaked by Washington State. The Utes are in rare form, enter rested from a Week 5 bye and generally look like the much stronger side.
Also of note: Utah has covered nine of its last 10 nondivision games, exploiting teams for whom their style is unfamiliar. It's easy to watch film and say, "This team is tough; we need to play physical," but it's hard to go out there and actually play physically.
The Pick: Utah (-6.5)
Other Top 25 Games
11 of 11
Maryland at No. 1 Ohio State (-33)
Can Ohio State drop five touchdowns on Maryland? Thirty-five points is all it will take to cover this. The Terps scored six points at West Virginia two weeks ago and none against Michigan Saturday. They've gone eight quarters without scoring in a game they didn't trail by 40 points. The struggle has been real in Columbus, but whoever starts at quarterback should get the Buckeyes in the end zone five times.
The Pick: Ohio State (-33)
No. 3 Baylor (-43.5) at Kansas
Kansas is down to its fourth-string quarterback, true freshman Ryan Willis, and doesn't have the skill players to support him. Baylor, meanwhile, is clicking offensively, even by head coach Art Briles' standards, and should flirt with 60 points against the Jayhawks. How many points can Willis score to keep this one close? A 43.5-point spread is a huge number, but if any team can cover that, it's Baylor.
The Pick: Baylor (-43.5)
No. 7 LSU (-13) at South Carolina
LSU is a souped-up version of Georgia, which beat South Carolina 52-20. The Gamecocks also lost by 14 points last week at Missouri. Georgia (No. 26) and Mizzou (No. 101) both rank far lower in S&P+ than LSU (No. 9), so I'm unclear why this line sits below two touchdowns. Is it home-field advantage? Because I doubt the crowd makes an impact after watching how its team has played this season.
The Pick: LSU (-13)
Illinois at No. 22 Iowa (-11.5)
The new-look Iowa Hawkeyes won a close game last week at Wisconsin and now look like legit Big Ten contenders. Illinois has played surprisingly well under interim head coach Bill Cubit, but their record is blemished by a 48-14 loss at North Carolina, and they also should have lost last week against Nebraska. Without star running back Josh Ferguson, whom Cubit called doubtful, the Illini lack offensive firepower. I can't believe I'm writing this, but…
The Pick: Iowa (-11.5)
Kent State at No. 24 Toledo (-16)
Kent State has a nice little defense, which should help it contain Toledo's running game. The Golden Flashes rank No. 13 in the country in defensive S&P+, and the Rockets can't rely on star running back Kareem Hunt, who has missed three of four games with an injury. This line opened at minus-17, but has dropped despite Toledo receiving the majority of spread bets, which suggests sharp money has come in on Kent State. The reverse line movement is subtle, but it's there.
The Pick: Kent State (+16)
Georgia Tech at No. 6 Clemson (-7.5)
What on Earth has happened to Georgia Tech? Once considered ACC contenders, the Yellow Jackets have dropped three straight games and just blew a 21-point lead at North Carolina. They get Clemson in a letdown spot after beating No. 6 Notre Dame, but the Tigers rank No. 1 in the country in run defense S&P+ and can rely on that strength against Paul Johnson's triple-option offense.
The Pick: Clemson (-7.5)
No. 25 Boise State (-15) at Colorado State
Boise State is rolling under true freshman quarterback Brett Rypien. The nephew of Super Bowl XXVI MVP Mark Rypien has been a huge upgrade over Ryan Finley, and running back Jeremy McNichols has done a great job replacing Jay Ajayi. The Broncos' last road trip was a 52-14 win at Virginia, they've outscored opponents by 149 points over the last three games and Colorado State—which clearly feels the loss of former head coach Jim McElwain—just lost by 15 at Utah State.
The Pick: Boise State (-15)
No. 2 TCU (-9.5) at Kansas State
Kansas State is down to its fifth-string quarterback, converted wide receiver Kody Cook, who nearly upset Oklahoma State last week. TCU knows a little something about converted wide receivers at quarterback—Trevone Boykin caught 26 passes two years ago—and should probably cover this line, but I can't go against head coach Bill Snyder. Since returning to the Wildcats six years ago, Snyder has covered in 17 of 22 games after a loss and 24 of 36 games as an underdog. In this case, he's both coming off a loss and an underdog. I'll take The Wizard.
The Pick: Kansas State (+9.5)
No. 4 Michigan State (-15.5) at Rutgers
I said I would refuse to back Sparty until the team proved it could cover a game, and heretofore that still hasn't happened. However, with bettors picking up on MSU's struggles, this line has been shaded in a way that provides value. Rutgers is a program in chaos, and although last week's bye should help restore order, the off-field problems it's facing take more than 14 days to fix.
The Pick: Michigan State (-15.5)
Week 5 Record: 6-12-0 (33%)
Overall Record: 40-46-2 (42%)
Note: Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press poll. All Week 5 spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All betting percentages (which side has seen more action) via Sports Insights. All advanced stats via Football Study Hall unless otherwise stated.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
