Florida vs. Missouri Complete Game Preview
After blowing out No. 3 Ole Miss, Florida heads to Missouri in a spot both familiar and foreign—ranked No. 11 in the country and expected to win on the road.
Those descriptions were happenstance under former head coach Urban Meyer, but the Will Muschamp era saw the Gators decline into afterthoughts. Last year, for example, they lost 42-13 on their home field against the Tigers, the two-time reigning SEC East champs.
New head coach Jim McElwain has revitalized the program, developing freshman quarterback Will Grier, apparently, into a top-tier SEC passer while maintaining one of the nation's top defenses. The Gators needed luck to beat Tennessee two weeks ago, but 5-0 is 5-0.
This team is a legit SEC title contender, and if it beats Missouri on Saturday, exacting revenge for last year's homecoming nightmare, it will continue its sneaky run toward the College Football Playoff.
It's only been two years since a first-year head coach who previously served as an SEC offensive coordinator returned to the conference, survived early scares against average teams, won games with miracle fourth-down plays and steered his team within 13 seconds of winning the national title.
There's no ceiling on how far UF can go.
Date: Saturday, October 10
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Memorial Stadium; Columbia, Missouri
TV: SEC Network
Line: Florida -4.5, according to Odds Shark
Florida Keys to Victory
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Stand Tall in the Trenches
Missouri has a dangerous pass rush that will test Florida's offensive line. The Tigers rank No. 1 in the country in defensive line havoc rate, creating chaos up front on 8.1 percent of plays. The Gators offensive line stood tall against Ole Miss, nullifying what appeared to be the Rebels' biggest advantage, but Mizzou is even stronger and has its home field behind it. Florida's line must play cohesive, disciplined football to keep the offense running smoothly.
Rattle Drew Lock
Missouri quarterback Drew Lock received a gift in his first career start. South Carolina's pass rush is anemic, and the true freshman looked comfortable completing 21 of 28 passes (albeit for only 136 yards) in a 24-10 victory. He'll face a much stiffer test against Florida, and the Gators must exploit that advantage. Their veteran defensive front seven can make this a long night for the teenager.
Get Off to Another Fast Start
Florida started fast against Ole Miss, punching the Rebs in the mouth with touchdowns on its second and third possessions. Even more than Hugh Freeze's team, which is sort of engineered to play with a lead, Missouri is a team that needs to play with a lead. If the Gators start fast and open another early buffer, there's almost no chance they lose this game. Doing so will be difficult on the road against a stingy defense, but they proved last week they definitely have what it takes.
Missouri Keys to Victory
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Create Explosive Plays
On a down-to-down basis, Missouri will struggle to move the ball on Florida. Scoring points will require a surplus of big plays. The Tigers have actually been decent in this regard through five weeks, rating above the national average in isolated points per play, the only of Football Study Hall's "five factors" on which Florida ranks below the national defensive average. Mizzou won't get many opportunities, so when it does, it must make them count.
Make Will Grier Uncomfortable
Florida quarterback Will Grier played the game of his life against Ole Miss, looking confident and comfortable from the opening whistle. Missouri can't let him repeat that. Rather, it needs to penetrate the backfield and make Grier run for his life, the same way Kentucky harassed him in the second half three weeks ago. Florida has the more complete team, but Mizzou's defensive line is the best unit in this game. Come Saturday, it needs to play like it.
No More 2nd-and-Longs
Missouri ranks No. 123 in the country in first-down offensive S&P+. It falls behind schedule and backs its quarterbacks into 2nd- and 3rd-and longs—situations where they can no longer be hidden. Florida ranks No. 14 in first-down defensive S&P+ and can make this game ugly by exploiting that. Missouri must win early, avoid negative plays and position Lock for success instead of backing him into a corner.
Florida Players to Watch
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DL Jonathan Bullard
Defensive lineman Jonathan Bullard has raised his game to another level. He's always been a dominant run defender, but he's made good on offseason promises to improve against the pass and then some. With 9.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, he's the emotional leader of Florida's defensive line—a unit we highlighted in the Keys to Victory. Interior pressure is the best way to rattle a true freshman quarterback such as Lock.
QB Will Grier
I wrote about Grier at length after the Ole Miss game, so to make this succinct: He was awesome. All Florida asked for was a game manager, but the redshirt freshman played like so much more against the Rebels, completing 17 of 20 passes for 229 yards and four touchdowns in the first half alone. Was his performance an aberration or a sign of things to come? Grier definitely has the pedigree to develop into a star. Now he just needs the consistency.
WR Demarcus Robinson
It's been a complicated year for Demarcus Robinson. He spent time on the second-team depth chart, but he's always been the Gators' No. 1 target. He set the tone early with a leaping grab against Ole Miss and finished with season highs in catches (eight) and yards (98). South Carolina's Pharoh Cooper posted nine catches for 102 yards against the Tigers last week, and Robinson should find similar success against cornerbacks Kenya Dennis and Aarion Penton.
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Missouri Players to Watch
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LB Kentrell Brothers
Kentrell Brothers is one of the best linebackers in college football. He patrols the middle of Missouri's defense and makes plays near the line of scrimmage. He posted a season-low four tackles against the Gators last season, but much of that concerned how Florida's offense was playing catch-up. Brothers and running back Kelvin Taylor will meet numerous times on Saturday.
QB Drew Lock
Missouri has looked putrid on offense, and although Lock provided a spark against South Carolina, he still failed to create consistent plays. The Tigers rank No. 124 in the country in offensive S&P+, having dropped four spots after Lock's first start. Almost anything would be an upgrade over Maty Mauk's early-season performance, but Lock needs to make that upgrade a big one. Missouri can't win this game unless Lock submits a Will-Grier-against-Ole-Miss type of performance.
DE Charles Harris
He's not quite Kony Ealy, Michael Sam, Shane Ray or Markus Golden, but Charles Harris has come pretty darn close. Missouri's latest star defensive end has posted 9.5 tackles for loss through five games, which ties him with Bullard and Texas A&M's Myles Garrett for a share of the SEC lead. Florida held its own against Ole Miss last week, but Harris and Mizzou are even stronger in the trenches. Harris will be charged with forcing Grier into negative plays.
What They're Saying
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Florida
McElwain on Grier's illness during the Ole Miss game, per quotes released by the Rebels:
"He missed some things, but we talked about that, yeah, he was sick, but you know what, we had 21 other guys sick, so it ain't about him, it's about everybody pulling up. There was some guys that stepped up, some guys that did a great job on special teams, it's not about him (Grier) at all, it's about all of them, you know. They all went through some adversity and found a way to focus and go play, so about 21 of them did a heck of a job getting in there.
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McElwain on handling success, per Chris Henry of GatorZone.com:
"It should be a fun week for us and yet, we’ll see how our guys handle the success... what little success it is. See where we’re [at] as a program. This will be a great, great challenge. It will be a lot of fun. That’s why you come to the University of Florida, is playing games like this. We’ll see how they handle it.
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Missouri
Head coach Gary Pinkel on Florida, per quotes released by the school:
"I think they're very good. They've been a very good defensive team for years. When I've been in this league, they've been an outstanding defensive team. Again, Jim's doing a great job and their staff. They do some things differently defensively than they've done in the past, but certainly they're playing great defense. But that's not a surprise. We didn't just wake up and think "My gosh, is this for real?" We knew that they're playing great defense, and I think offensively right now their quarterback is playing really well. I think that he's doing a lot of good things, I'm impressed watching him. I believe he's a redshirt freshmen, I believe, so he's doing an outstanding job. He's got some experienced receivers making plays and they've got a good running game, so there's a lot of good things.
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Pinkel on where Lock must improve, per the same source:
"I don't want to critique him in front of you guys, that's what I do with him. He's just got a lot of little things he needs to do, just quarterbacking things. I always tell quarterbacks: the quarterback-center exchange, the quarterback-running back exchange, the 40 second clock, don't take sacks or do everything you can not to take sacks, the down and distance, the field position, where your reads are, your keys. There's so many multiple things that a quarterback has to think about and he instinctively has to do it. He's smart and he's doing a good job, but the more he plays the more he's going to get it. We anticipate this, but he's doing a really, really good job.
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Prediction
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On paper this should be a trap game.
Florida heads to Missouri after emotional wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss and before a circled road trip to LSU. It would be easy to overlook a struggling group of Tigers in Columbia in order to prepare for a hot group of Tigers in Baton Rouge.
However, context precludes that. Missouri is the two-time reigning SEC East champion and embarrassed Florida on homecoming last season. Now the Gators have a chance to return the favor. They are more than just the slightly better team, ranking No. 5 on the S&P+ ratings to Mizzou's No. 101, and have the motive to make this ugly.
Prediction: Florida 27, Missouri 6
Note: Unless otherwise cited, all advanced stats via Football Study Hall.
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