Penn State vs. Ohio State: Complete Game Preview
After months of hype and speculation, Black Saturday has arrived for No. 1 Ohio State.
The Buckeyes (6-0) are set to wear black alternate jerseys when they host James Franklin and Penn State (5-1) for a prime-time showdown in Ohio Stadium.
The Nittany Lions pushed the Buckeyes harder than any team during conference play last season. Christian Hackenberg rallied Penn State from a 17-0 halftime deficit to force overtime, but J.T. Barrett turned in a clutch performance to help Ohio State escape with a 31-24 double-overtime win in Beaver Stadium.
Can Penn State get revenge, or will the Buckeyes register an important win and continue their playoff push?
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, October 17
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Place: Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio
TV: ABC
Spread: Ohio State (-17.5), via Odds Shark
Ohio State Keys to Victory
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Continue the Red-Zone Surge
Ohio State had one of the worst red-zone offenses in the country going into its Week 6 matchup with Maryland, getting just six touchdowns in 16 trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line. That 37.5 touchdown percentage ranked 121st out of 128 teams nationally, and Urban Meyer was a "raving lunatic" about that inefficiency during practice last week, per Eric Seger of Eleven Warriors.
The Buckeyes' solution against the Terrapins was to insert J.T. Barrett as a situational quarterback in the red zone, and that strategy worked to perfection. Ohio State had six red-zone opportunities that they converted into six touchdowns Saturday.
They'll need similar success against a solid Penn State defense.
Win the Turnover Battle
Another big sticking point for Ohio State leading up to the Maryland game was its carelessness with the ball. In the three games leading up to the Week 6 showdown, the Buckeyes had turned the ball over 10 times while forcing just three turnovers themselves.
The Buckeyes were much better against the Terrapins, committing no turnovers while forcing two on defense.
Meyer will stress that again this week, because he knows it can change the game.
"We're turning the ball over at an alarming rate," Meyer said after the Week 5 Indiana game, according to Ari Wasserman of the Plain Dealer. "That's obviously a difference in the game. And at some point, that's going to bite you. We have to fix that."
Penn State has forced 12 turnovers this year, averaging two a game, which is tied for 20th nationally. Ohio State will have to put a premium on ball security this Saturday.
Penn State Keys to Victory
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Protect Christian Hackenberg
Penn State hasn't done a good job of protecting Christian Hackenberg this season.
In Week 1 against Temple, the Nittany Lions offensive line surrendered an incredible 10 sacks in an upset 27-10 loss. The Nittany Lions have been better since then, ripping off five consecutive victories, but they still rank 112th nationally with 19 sacks allowed through six weeks.
The Owls defensive line is experienced and talented, and it ranks 10th in the country in total sacks. But Ohio State has been nearly as productive, ranking 11th in the country in team sacks with 19 through six games.
The Buckeyes' front seven will put a lot of pressure on the Nittany Lions, so the offensive line will need to play its best game of the season.
Get an Early Lead
It didn't go well for Penn State the last time it visited Columbus.
Back in 2013, the Nittany Lions traveled to face an undefeated Buckeyes team looking to make a statement after seven winning yet underwhelming performances.
Ohio State took its frustrations out on Penn State, scoring the game's first 28 points midway through the second quarter en route to a historic 63-14 beatdown.
If the Nittany Lions want to avoid a similar outcome or a blowout of any nature, they need to come out hot and build a solid first-half lead. Because if they fall behind early under the lights in Ohio Stadium, it could get ugly.
Ohio State Players to Watch
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Braxton Miller made huge headlines in the offseason when he announced his move from quarterback to wide receiver, and it only took him one week to show what he was capable of, ripping off touchdowns of 54 and 53 yards in a 140-yard performance against Virginia Tech.
But Miller faded in an offense that struggled through the rest of its nonconference slate, and in the three games leading up to the matchup with Maryland last Saturday, Miller had just 50 total yards and no touchdowns.
Urban Meyer made a concerted effort to get Miller involved in the game against the Terrapins, and that decision paid off, as he hauled in five receptions and a touchdown in a performance that netted 90 total yards.
The Buckeyes could use more of that kind of play from the senior, so look to see if they get Miller involved early against the Nittany Lions.
Joey Bosa
Joey Bosa became one of the most feared pass-rushers in college football during a breakout sophomore campaign. He piled up an incredible 13.5 sacks last year, which led the Big Ten and ranked fourth nationally, and he was expected to threaten Ohio State's single-season sack record this season.
But at the midway point of the year, Bosa has just 1.5 sacks.
Of course, he's only played in five games, as he missed the season-opening clash with Virginia Tech due to a suspension. But since then, opposing teams have been gearing their protection schemes toward him, and while he's still playing at a high level, he hasn't been able to get to the quarterback consistently.
Penn State's offensive line has surrendered nearly three sacks per game this season, so Bosa should be able to get loose in the backfield Saturday.
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Penn State Players to Watch
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Carl Nassib
Many expected Joey Bosa to be one of the country's sack leaders in 2015, but the name currently atop that list is Carl Nassib, Penn State's outstanding defensive end.
Nassib, who had just seven total tackles and a sack during a quiet junior season, is midway through a breakout senior campaign. The 6'7", 272-pound pass-rusher leads the country with 10 sacks through six games. He's fueled a stout defense that ranks 10th nationally, allowing just 275.7 yards per game.
Cardale Jones is a hard man to corral in the backfield, but he hasn't had the country's best pass-rusher coming at him with a full head of steam.
Christian Hackenberg
Ohio State has been burned in back-to-back games by mobile quarterbacks.
Two weeks ago against Indiana, Zander Diamont torched the Buckeyes on a 79-yard touchdown run late in the game. Last week against Maryland, Perry Hills absolutely gashed Ohio State for a career-high 170 yards and two touchdowns on just 25 carries.
Christian Hackenberg is not a dual-threat quarterback, but he showed off some mobility against the Hoosiers, running for 21 yards and two touchdowns on nine carries. He's not going to beat Ohio State with his legs, but judging from the last two games, there may be a few lanes for him to run through during a key spot in the game.
What They're Saying
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Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer talked about using J.T. Barrett as a red-zone quarterback against Maryland, via Eric Seger of Eleven Warriors.
"J.T. is just a very good player. We've been having some red zone issues and the Q run, everything condenses so much in there. Either you have to be extremely accurate, which we're going to continue to work at that. In the throwing game — or the run game, you have to somehow find an extra hat. That's only done a couple of ways, that's option football or Q run to equate numbers. He provided an obvious spark for us in there. Of course, he's a leader and a guy that needs to be on the field.
"
Penn State head coach James Franklin talked about utilizing Christian Hackenberg's legs in addition to his cannon arm.
“Being a threat to run the ball, it causes headaches,” Franklin said, according to Nate Bauer of Blue White Illustrated. “It’s a pain. You drop back, you got everybody covered, and now the quarterback is willing to pull them down and go get the first down.”
Prediction
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This Saturday's game won't be as close as last year's double-overtime thriller.
Ohio State will start slow, though, allowing Penn State to build a 10-7 lead midway through the second quarter. That's when Ezekiel Elliott will get going, breaking a 40-yard touchdown run to give the Buckeyes a lead they won't surrender. Another long run from Elliott before the end of the half will set up a field goal, and Ohio State will take a touchdown lead into the break.
Penn State will get on the board again with a field goal to open the third quarter, but Cardale Jones will answer with a perfectly placed pass to Jalin Marshall, who will get behind the defense and race 60 yards for the score.
The Nittany Lions will pull within eight points early in the fourth quarter when Joey Julius drills a 40-yard field goal, but the Buckeyes will put the game away with a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that J.T. Barrett caps with a one-yard touchdown run.
Prediction: Ohio State 31, Penn State 16
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