Everything You Need to Know About the Miami Heat's 2015-16 NBA Season
Last summer, the Miami Heat lost the best NBA player on the planet. This offseason, they gave themselves a chance to rejoin the championship picture.
Expectations are high in South Beach for a starting five that appears razor-sharp and a second team that received some needed attention. This is an old roster, which means it's both heavy on experience and anxious to win sooner rather than later.
The Heat had a throwaway 2014-15 campaign, and not only because it ended with a 37-45 record. They couldn't keep anyone healthy, as head coach Erik Spoelstra trotted out a franchise-record 31 different starting lineups and had 20 different players open at least one contest.
An offseason of rest ideally brought health and stability, plus the potential finishing touches on a shadow contender. With last season's most pleasant surprise and possibly this draft's biggest steal, the Heat have recovered from LeBron James' stunning departure faster and better than anyone could have imagined.
Key Additions/Subtractions
- Additions: Justise Winslow (draft), Amar'e Stoudemire (free agent), Gerald Green (free agent), Josh Richardson (draft)
- Subtractions: Shabazz Napier (trade), Michael Beasley (overseas), Henry Walker (waived), Zoran Dragic (trade)
The Heat did the bulk of their post-LeBron rebuilding last summer and this past season. They've focused mostly on the margins since, parting ways with several expendable pieces and making shrewd bargain investments in veterans Amar'e Stoudemire and Gerald Green. That pair, plus a healthy Josh McRoberts, should invigorate a bench mob that finished 2014-15 ranked 28th in scoring, per HoopsStats.com.
But one player will ultimately define this offseason: rookie swingman Justise Winslow. He did everything during his lone year at Duke—including winning a national title—and generated a big enough predraft buzz that his slide to the 10th selection seemed like another South Beach coup.
"Justise Winslow wasn't the No. 1 overall pick and he might not end up being the best player taken, but the last time a 'fall' was celebrated this madly was in Berlin when the wall toppled," wrote NBA.com's Shaun Powell. "Based on the reaction, you would've thought a million dollars dropped into Pat Riley's lap."
Storylines to Watch
Health holds the key for every NBA team, but it's particularly powerful with this franchise.
With a knee issue dating back to college, Dwyane Wade is a walking injury risk. He's missed an average of 19.5 games over the past four seasons, and he'll turn 34 before the end of this one. Chris Bosh is 31 and coming back from a traumatic bout with blood clots. Luol Deng is an old 30 for the mileage he racked up under Tom Thibodeau, and McRoberts is playing on a surgically repaired knee.
Holding up physically is the Heat's first hurdle, but the second could be just as critical: keeping Hassan Whiteside on the fast track to stardom.
He became an overnight sensation after getting called up from the NBA D-League in December. He averaged 14.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 2.6 blocks over his final 30 outings, marks that if they're repeated could fetch him a $100 million contract next summer, per ESPN.com's Michael Wallace. But Whiteside has to prove he can find consistency and leave his past immaturity problems behind him.
Winslow's development will also play a pivotal role in setting this team's ceiling. The Heat's starting five looks ready to contend in the East (if it stays healthy), but the bench still carries questions. Stoudemire doesn't defend well enough to log major minutes, and Green's impact can hinge on a streaky outside shot. Winslow must be a stabilizing force, consistently flashing poise well beyond his 19 years.
X-Factor: Josh McRoberts
Last season was McRoberts' first chance to validate the four-year, $22.8 million deal he signed over the summer, and he couldn't stay out of his own way. His recovery from toe surgery bled into the start of the campaign, and a torn meniscus forced him off the floor for good after only 17 appearances.
But McRoberts passed all the tests his body allowed him to take. He knocked down 42.1 percent of his three-point looks and 52.8 percent of his field goals. His per-36-minute numbers highlighted his versatility (8.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists), and Miami fared dramatically better when he played than when he didn't.
McRoberts can be equally effective this season, even if the frontcourt is more crowded. He can be the adhesive in any lineup, balancing touches between the vets or putting the youngsters in position to succeed. Because he can shoot, pass and attack the basket, he can share the floor with any other big and complement their skill set however needed.
Making the Leap: Justise Winslow
If the Heat have a shot at contending, it's right now. They have the league's oldest roster with an average age of 30.3, per RealGM, and four of their five projected starters will be over 30 before the next champion is crowned.
There isn't much youth, and a lot of it remains too raw for a significant role (Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, James Ennis). But Winslow is the exception.
He might be the youngest of the lot, but he'll be leaned on the heaviest. His task list should run the gamut on both sides of the ball while Miami concocts creative ways to blend its future with the present.
Best-Case Scenario
Heat president of basketball operations Pat Riley said it best. "I think this team has all of the elements of a championship team," the executive said, per Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel.
It would take a lot of good fortune to reach that level, but it's not outside the realm of possibilities. The Heat need to keep their stars healthy, then get steady contributions from the second-team veterans and prospects. If Dragic and Whiteside can join the All-Star discussion, Miami could emerge as the Cleveland Cavaliers' biggest challenger out East. If that happens, all potential outcomes are on the table.
Worst-Case Scenario
The injury bug does even more damage this time around, as both Wade and Bosh take clear steps away from their prime. Whiteside can't find the same production, plagued both by poor decision-making and the lack of three-point shooting. Miami doesn't have the athletes to run with Dragic, as Winslow's transition moves painfully slow and Green provides little outside of the occasional highlight dunk.
Miami can't gain separation from its Eastern Conference foes and gets stuck in the pack of clubs competing for a low-level playoff berth. The Heat fall just short of scoring a postseason spot, and their overall record isn't bad enough to save their top-10 protected pick from going to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Predictions
Injuries will strike this team. That's just a given with its makeup. If Heat fans are realistic, they should hope for 65 games out of Wade and 70 from Deng. Anything beyond is an added bonus.
Bosh is sort of a mystery after suffering career-threatening blood clots in his lung, but he's an All-Star talent until proved otherwise. His pick-and-choose sets with Dragic should work incredibly well, while also easing the burden for Wade to create and giving Deng, Winslow and Whiteside more room to operate.
That being said, this attack will look clunky at times. There isn't much perimeter shooting—33.5 three-point percentage, 24th overall last season—and it will take a while to align Dragic's accelerator with the speed of the aging core around him. This defense has to be substantially better than last season, but it will help adding Winslow and having both Bosh and Whiteside for the entire year.
Miami has as much talent as any Eastern Conference team outside of Cleveland, and the Heat should be expected to contend for the No. 2 seed. They'll have too many regular-season injuries to actually grab it, but the extra rest will come in handy when their experienced core scores a pair of playoff series victories before bowing out in the conference finals.
- Final Record: 47-35
- Division Standing: Second in Southeast
- Playoff Berth: Yes
- Playoff Finish: Eliminated in Eastern Conference Finals
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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