Who Is the Real Favorite to Win the Big 12 Title?
One year ago, the Big 12 had trouble living up to its slogan of “One True Champion,” and it ultimately cost the league a College Football Playoff berth.
When Baylor and TCU wound up tied for the Big 12 championship, the CFP selection committee ultimately threw up its hands and picked Ohio State for the fourth and final playoff spot (which, in retrospect, worked out just fine).
This fall, it’s in the division's best interest to have one undisputed champion. Which team will emerge as the “one true champion”? It’s not as easy to call as you might think, especially with both Baylor and TCU currently in the Top Five nationally.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Let’s take a look and try to sort it all out, shall we?
First off, let’s determine the true candidates.
At 4-0 following Saturday’s 63-35 win over Texas Tech, No. 5 Baylor is a clear candidate. No. 4 TCU, which ripped hapless Texas 50-7 on Saturday, sits atop the pecking order as well. With new offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley and prolific, pass-happy quarterback Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (which rolled past West Virginia 44-24 Saturday) is 4-0, ranked in the Top 15 and proving that 2014’s 8-5 record was just an aberration.
While Oklahoma State is 5-0 following a 36-34 win over Kansas State, it’s hard to take it seriously, given the uneven play of sophomore quarterback Mason Rudolph.
So that leaves us with three clear contenders: Baylor, Oklahoma and TCU.
The Bears have the nation’s most productive offense. They entered Saturday averaging 64 points per game, best in the nation, and backed that up against the Red Raiders, their best competition to date.
Junior quarterback Seth Russell has transitioned seamlessly into the starting quarterback role vacated by Bryce Petty’s graduation. He has 1,281 yards and 19 touchdowns against five interceptions after throwing for 286 yards and four touchdowns against the Red Raiders defense. He also added 81 yards rushing and two touchdowns on 12 carries Saturday.
Wide receiver Corey Coleman has emerged as one of the nation’s best deep threats. After Saturday’s seven-catch, 110-yard, three-score effort, he has 24 catches for 570 yards and 11 touchdowns. And sophomore KD Cannon is also a returning 1,000-yard receiver.
Throw in an experienced offensive line and tailback Shock Linwood (who terrorized the Red Raiders D for 221 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries), and you have all the ingredients for a scary offense.
Baylor’s defense was a weak spot last fall, and the Bears allowed 35 points against the Red Raiders. But compare that to the 52 points TCU yielded a week earlier, and that doesn’t look so bad.
TCU’s offense is also frightening. With senior quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Trevone Boykin at the helm, the Horned Frogs entered Saturday averaging 51 points per game, No. 4 nationally, and that ranking is unlikely to drop following the rout of Texas.
Boykin has 1,802 yards passing with 19 touchdowns against three interceptions after torching Texas for 332 yards and five scores through the air.
Aaron Green (who now has 504 rushing yards and six scores) is a talented tailback, and wide receiver Josh Doctson (who has 42 receptions for 722 yards and eight touchdowns) found someone to take defenses’ attention away in freshman receiver KaVontae Turpin, who had six receptions for 138 yards and four touchdowns Saturday.
However, the Horned Frogs defense is a major concern. While Saturday’s shutdown of Texas was encouraging, TCU entered yielding 28.3 points per game, which could be a major issue against higher-powered schemes.
Oklahoma has also emerged as a strong Big 12 contender. Mayfield looks right at home in Riley’s system, throwing for 1,382 yards with 13 touchdowns against three interceptions. And tailbacks Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon are a dangerous backfield duo. With Mayfield under center, the Sooners look like a completely different team than with Trevor Knight leading the way last fall.
Ultimately, the Big 12 title will come down to three games over three weekends in November: Oklahoma’s Nov. 14 visit to Baylor, TCU’s trip to Norman on Nov. 21 and the Black Friday showdown between Baylor and TCU in Fort Worth.
If Baylor or TCU can survive the Sooners and then survive the other’s offensive onslaught in what should be a frenzied matchup, it'll be the Big 12 champion.
Through four weeks, Baylor appears to have the more complete offense and a better, healthier defense. Coleman and Cannon are the only returning 1,000-yard receiving duo in America, and together they can strain defenses more than Doctson and Turpin, who is less proven. Linwood, a returning 1,200-yard rusher, is also more proven than TCU's Green, who rushed for 922 yards last fall.
Meanwhile, TCU's defense has played without six projected starters due to injuries or leaves of absence, taxing a defense that lost its top two linebackers and tacklers from a year ago.
Both Baylor and TCU look vulnerable defensively, but the Horned Frogs' depth issues make it harder to trust them against Big 12 offenses.
The Bears are the favorite to win the Big 12, but it won’t be easy.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
