Giants at Bills: What's the Game Plan for Buffalo?

On Sunday, the 2-1 Buffalo Bills host the 1-2 New York Giants in a game of underappreciated importance. While the Giants will look to build on their first victory of the season, Buffalo is hoping to solidify its hold on the AFC East’s No. 2 spot. 

Given the combination of Buffalo’s rabid fanbase, high playoff hopes and the New England Patriots’ 3-0 start, this week’s matchup is an important one to win. 

Frankly, Buffalo should go home with a victory on Sunday. Its defense is better than statistics suggest, the offense is playing an anemic Giants defense and the Bills demolished Miami last week. This is an eminently winnable game, but not one to take lightly. There are a few things Buffalo needs to focus on.

Offensive Game Plan

As with every week in the NFL, Buffalo’s offensive plan on Sunday will rely on numerous contributors. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor was excellent last week, and, frankly, has been pretty darn good all year. After the fierce preseason competition for the starting job, coach Rex Ryan appears to have made a good call placing Taylor atop the team’s depth chart. 

And Percy Harvin, signed in the offseason despite a lengthy history of injury, is the team’s leading wide receiver through three games. He’s averaged 12 yards per catch, and leads the team in targets, receptions, total receiving yards and receiving yards per game. 

But this week, Buffalo should focus on two particular players. 

One is Karlos Williams. The rookie running back has been one of the NFL’s most productive rookies, and, as an unheralded fifth-round draft pick, a pleasant surprise for Ryan and his squad. Star offseason pickup LeSean McCoy has battled injury ever since coming to Buffalo, and he will not play on Sunday; joining him on the injury list are wideouts Sammy Watkins and Marquise Goodwin, and safety Aaron Williams:

Williams’ production, therefore, becomes critical to Buffalo’s success this week and this season. 

Luckily, Williams has been extremely productive. He’s averaging over seven yards per carry, and he exploded for 110 yards on 12 carries in last week’s evisceration of the Dolphins. Plus, he’s facing an immensely subpar defensive line: the Giants have a combined three sacks this season, and have failed to pressure any of the quarterbacks they’ve faced. Williams should look to plow through the middle as often as he can, and that should set the tone early. 

The other is Charles Clay, who, like Williams, had his best game of the season last week. Clay finished with five catches, a touchdown and 82 yards receiving (more than half his total yardage on the season), and he regularly drew Miami’s defensive attention away from Williams, McCoy, Harvin and the rest of Buffalo’s more highly touted offensive weapons. With Watkins out, and facing a not-that-intimidating New York defense, Clay ought to see plenty of throws. 

The Giants defense is nothing to be scared of, and even a semi-competent performance from Taylor should move the ball downfield. But it’s virtually certain that Williams and Clay will have to pick up the slack if Buffalo is to put points on the board. 

Defensive Game Plan

First, things got a bit easier for Buffalo when reports emerged that wideout Victor Cruz would not make his anticipated season debut on Sunday. Cruz’s presence would normally make New York a different offensive team, as opposing defenses could no longer zero in on superstar receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. 

But Cruz is out, and Buffalo’s defense is more than capable of stifling Eli Manning’s offensive squad. Buffalo’s defensive statistics aren’t that great right now: The team ranks 28th in the NFL in total yards allowed and 30th in yards allowed per game. But those stats are misleading. Not only are they inflated by the Week 2 performance of Tom Brady and the Patriots, but, despite surrendering 466 yards to Brady alone, the Bills rank 13th in points allowed per game. 

In other words, the Bills defense is still capable, despite its Week 2 showing. 

Frankly, the biggest question for Buffalo this week revolves around Eli Manning and his uncannily accurate start to the season. Manning has yet to throw an interception, while Buffalo (as a team) has forced three fumbles and picked off five passes. It’s an enticing matchup, especially as Buffalo’s ability to force turnovers has been a huge part of its defensive success over the past season-and-a-half. 

Ronald Darby, Corey Graham and the rest of Buffalo’s secondary do not need to intercept Manning to win this game. What they need to do is limit the Giants’ big plays, while trusting their defensive line to pressure Manning and smother New York’s running game. Buffalo is first in the league in rushing defense, and the Giants rank 23rd in rushing offense. If Buffalo can hold Beckham to even a “pretty good” performance, there aren’t a lot of other Giants who can hurt them.

Darby, incidentally, has been superb so far. He’s not quite an elite cornerback yet, but of all the secondary defenders in the NFL, he may have had the best start:

Winning the game becomes easier, of course, if Darby and Co. can end Manning’s interception-less streak. 

Prediction:

Bills 24, Giants 13

I adjusted my prediction from Thursday for two reasons. One is Cruz’s absence. The other is further consideration of Karlos Williams, who appears entirely capable of anchoring an effective running game. 

Again, this is a trap game for Buffalo. A loss here would place the Bills in a tie for last place in the AFC East. Given New England’s performance so far in 2015, the AFC East cellar is not a place a playoff hopeful wants to be. But a victory would give Buffalo sole possession of second place; without getting into premature wild-card considerations, a victory would at least keep Buffalo within breathing room of the Patriots. 

And, again, this game is one Buffalo should win easily. The Bills rushing attack has been excellent, as has its run defense. The Giants’ rushing attack has been pathetic, as has their run defense. Buffalo’s quarterback is only getting better. Buffalo’s defense, despite the stats, is among the league’s best. 

The biggest thing Buffalo fans should be worried about is penalties. The Bills handed over 250 free penalty yards in Weeks 1 and 2. But they fixed that problem last week. If last week was anomalous, Buffalo will be in for a tight game—they cannot give Eli Manning, who has a history of winning games against superior teams, free yards. But if they manage penalties, and keep Taylor from taking risky downfield shots, Buffalo should have no problem making it to 3-1.