Oakland Raiders vs. Chicago Bears: What's the Game Plan for Oakland?
There’s no doubt Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler’s status changes the complexion of the Oakland Raiders’ Week 4 matchup, but it doesn’t change the game plan on the defensive side of the ball.
Cutler made a statement that suggests the possibility of sitting out or the potential of a hamstring injury affecting his play mentally on the field, as reported by Chicago Sun-Times writer Patrick Finley:
"If you do come back on a hamstring earlier than you want to, it’s definitely going to be in the back of your mind because there’s that slight pull. It’s an instinctual game out there. You’re doing things on the run without thinking. To have to worry about a hamstring and moving around is something that can weigh on you.
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Those aren’t encouraging words from Cutler, and even if he plays, there will be limitations as to his elusiveness in the pocket. A defensive game plan for Cutler would become twice as effective against either of the two backup quarterbacks with the offense missing some key components.
According to Pro Football Talk, the Bears have ruled out starting offensive tackle Jermon Bushrod, and they expect wide receiver Alshon Jeffery to sit out another game, per ESPN’s Jeff Dickerson:
Pressure the Quarterback’s Blind Side
Whoever matches up against backup tackle Charles Leno Jr. could have a field day on Sunday.
In Week 3, Oakland rotated a few linebackers at the position. In addition to Khalil Mack and Aldon Smith, Neiron Ball registered a sack from the blind side late in the game to stagger the Cleveland Browns’ final offensive drive.
That trend should continue against the second-year offensive lineman filling in for Bushrod.
Cutler won’t have the legs to escape constant pressure, and the other two signal-callers may not have the field awareness to avoid the pass rush.
Either way, overloading Leno should yield positive results for a defense that found a breakthrough with five sacks in an alternative defensive alignment.
Shutting Down Matt Forte
Weak-side linebacker Malcolm Smith will have a busy day on Sunday, keeping an eye on running back Matt Forte out of the backfield as a receiver.
In 2014, Forte caught 102 passes and projects as the Bears’ biggest playmaker without Jeffery on the field for this matchup.
The Bears could move Forte around the formation to find favorable matchups as a receiver. The running back’s versatility requires a team effort in containing his production when catching short passes in the flat and over the middle.
Defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr. should mix in some 4-3 looks on early downs to corral Forte in the backfield as a ball-carrier.
In Week 3, the Raiders often rushed two linebackers off the edge, but Forte warrants some attention for containment on the outside.
According to Pro Football Focus, Mack ranks second among 3-4 outside linebackers in stopping the run. Oakland will need that skill set against the NFL’s second-leading rusher at this point.
Defending Martellus Bennett
The Raiders' communication breakdowns were previously discovered in covering tight ends.
According to CSNBayArea.com reporter Scott Bair, safety Charles Woodson lists officially as questionable for Sunday’s game:
In all likelihood, Woodson will find a way to play, but does he serve as the best defender with a dislocated shoulder?
It’s asking a lot of a hurt player to defend a bigger and more talented receiving tight end than the previous three the Raiders failed to defend.
Single coverage serves as the best approach against receiving tight ends until the Raiders rectify their coverage communication issues in the area between the safety and inside linebacker.
Man-to-man coverage on Bennett using a larger cornerback or a combination of safeties between Larry Asante and Woodson should limit the tight end's production to a level that doesn’t hurt the Raiders' chances of winning the game.
Balancing the Offense
Chicago has failed to stop two things on defense: the rushing attack and No. 1 wide receivers.
The Raiders have skill players at both positions capable of exploiting the Bears' weaknesses on defense. Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave must force the Bears to pick their poison and give them a serving of both to keep the defense on tilt.
According to Football Outsiders, Chicago allows nearly 11 yards per catch to No. 1 wideouts. Amari Cooper leads all wide receivers in yards after the catch (YAC). This week’s matchup serves as the perfect situation for Cooper to eat up yards in bulk after short receptions.
Running back Latavius Murray receives a second opportunity to expose another weak run defense. In Week 3, he rushed for 139 yards and a touchdown against the worst run defense in the league. Murray can repeat that performance against the Bears’ 28th-ranked run defense on Sunday.
There’s no pressure on quarterback Derek Carr to force passes unless the Raiders fall behind. Musgrave can design some run plays to keep the play-calling unpredictable similar to Week 3.
Murray averages 4.8 yards per carry and poses an equal threat to the Bears defense as Cooper on the outside. Both players could register 100-yard performances against Chicago.
Game Prediction
Based on Cutler’s cryptic quotes to Finley of the Chicago Sun-Times, it’s a 50-50 chance he’ll play, but it seems more doubtful than questionable.
If Cutler plays, he’ll still have limitations in his movement, which holds important for non-mobile quarterbacks facing pocket pressure.
The Bears must consider the Raiders' improved pass rush, although the sacks just started accumulating. Mack and Smith accounted for 10 quarterback hurries in the first two weeks, which requires movement in the pocket.
Bushrod's absence at left tackle potentially puts more pressure on Cutler's hamstring when he's on the run.
In Week 3, the Bears struggled mightily without Cutler against the Seattle Seahawks, and based on their player transactions, they’re thinking big picture for the future. Cutler will likely sit out to avoid reaggravating that hamstring pull for an extended absence.
Without Cutler, the Raiders win a fairly easy matchup against a banged-up Bears offense.
If Cutler plays, he’ll likely be without a major target in Jeffery at wide receiver. He’ll rely on quick dump-off passes to Forte, look for Bennett in the middle of the field and lean on the rushing attack.
However, he admitted that the hamstring injury could significantly hinder his mental capacity on the field, which gives the Raiders help on defense.
The Raiders win either way, but they face a tougher challenge with Cutler on the field.
Raiders 34, Bears 31 (with Cutler)
Raiders 38, Bears 13 (without Cutler)
Follow Maurice Moton on Twitter for news, updates and intriguing discussion about the Oakland Raiders.
All statistics are provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Chicago Bears transactions courtesy of ChicagoBears.com.
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