Chiefs vs. Bengals: What's the Game Plan for Cincinnati?
If the Cincinnati Bengals are to hit 4-0 for the first time since 2005, it's going to take a pristine game plan going into a showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday.
On paper, the Chiefs look like a beatable opponent. Not only is Andy Reid's team on the road and on a short week after a Monday Night Football appearance, but they sit at 1-2 with obvious weaknesses.
Yet the 1-2 record? It's the result of early-season encounters with the Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers. The Chiefs are explosive on both sides of the football, and perhaps more deadly than anything else: now they're desperate.
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The Bengals are red hot, yes, but Sunday's matchup isn't anything like the lopsided matchup it appears. Let's take a look at what Cincinnati needs to do to avoid an upset.
Offensive Game Plan
Air it out.
It's the exact same approach advised last week. Andy Dalton and the Bengals did just that, as he threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns and A.J. Green caught 10 passes for 227 yards and two scores.
The Bengals got two poised, clutch touchdown connections between the two, but also encouraging was the performance of No. 2 wideout Marvin Jones on a day Tyler Eifert caught no passes—Jones hauled in five passes for 94 yards and a score.
Baltimore had an exploitable secondary, and so too does Kansas City. Opposing teams' one-two punches haven't had any issues against the Chiefs so far this year, as the numbers show below:
| Nate Washington (Week 1) | 6 | 105 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins (Week 1) | 9 | 98 | 2 |
| Demaryius Thomas (Week 2) | 8 | 116 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders (Week 2) | 8 | 87 | 2 |
| James Jones (Week 3) | 7 | 139 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb (Week 3) | 7 | 91 | 3 |
It's important to note, though, that the Chiefs get back top corner Sean Smith this weekend, a guy who ranked as the fifth-best corner in the league last year at Pro Football Focus.
All the more reason to pass.
Smith is but one man, so even if he manages to do what most can't and apply the clamps on A.J. Green, it leaves Jones, Eifert and others to win one-one-one matchups.
Running the ball hasn't worked for the Bengals in recent weeks—or it at least hasn't been the focal point of the attack. Jeremy Hill fumbled twice against San Diego, and it was clear in Baltimore last weekend that he wasn't running confident.
Cincinnati's quick-twitch aerial attack can once again mitigate these issues. Not only that, it can help keep a pass rush led by Tamba Hali honest. If Dalton can make the proper changes at the line and not turn the ball over, the Bengals have an obvious path to offensive success.
Defensive Game Plan
Cincinnati has to be able to bring pressure Sunday in order to force Alex Smith into mistakes and neutralize big-play targets such as wideout Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs have done a miserable job of protecting the quarterback this year, ranking among the 10 worst teams in pass-blocking grades at PFF so far, having surrendered 12 sacks, two quarterback hits and 30 hurries.
Like Baltimore's Joe Flacco last week, Smith just cannot perform under such pressure. He ranks as the 33rd quarterback among 36 graded at PFF and features the following numbers under pressure:
| No pressure | 76 | 3 | 1 | -1.5 |
| Plays under pressure | 47 | 1 | 2 | -6.8 |
| When not blitzed | 81 | 2 | 2 | -5.7 |
| When blitzed | 42 | 2 | 1 | -2.6 |
For the second week in a row, the Bengals have a great chance at generating pressure and forcing mistakes. Geno Atkins continues to terrorize from the interior, which helps guys on the outside such as Carlos Dunlap.
The fact is, Cincinnati probably won't be able to stop running back Jamaal Charles. Few can. He only carried the ball 11 times while playing from behind in Green Bay this past Monday but scored three times.
What the Bengals can do, though, is eliminate erratic, albeit potent weapons such as Kelce and Maclin. The former hasn't scored since Week 1, and the latter has one touchdown to his name.
This is a trenches war for the Bengals. If Atkins and the line can dominant a struggling opponent, it will take pressure off the offense.
Key Players and Matchups
Giovani Bernard
It should go without saying, but the Bengals need Giovani Bernard to rush the ball well if Hill continues to struggle with his decisiveness while focusing on ball security.
Perhaps more important, though, is Cincinnati's need for Bernard to act as a reliable receiver out of the backfield this weekend to offset Kansas City's strong rush from its edge defenders.
Bernard has 12 catches through three games, quality numbers and just what Dalton will need if the line doesn't hold up in front of him. It should, but the unit did allow its first two sacks of the season last week.
Russell Bodine
Sophomore center Russell Bodine was the reason for much of the offensive line's struggles last weekend in Baltimore against a Terrell Suggs-less defense.
Baltimore tackle Brandon Williams had a field day against Bodine, which isn't a good sign considering it was the first serious competition Cincinnati's young center faced this year.
Even worse, Kansas City touts a better player than Williams by the name of Jaye Howard, who ranks as the third-best defensive tackle in the league at PFF.
If Bodine can't hold strong, Dalton might have a tough time moving the ball at a consistent clip.
Marvin Jones
While alluded to above, it's impossible to stress enough how important of a role Jones will play this weekend with Kansas City in town.
A fresh Smith might mean trouble for Green, but Jones seems to have a favorable matchup on his hands on the opposite side of the field after the Chiefs lost Phillip Gaines to a season-ending knee injury Monday, per Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star.
It's no secret Jones has the talent to win one-on-one matchups. If he and Dalton are on the same page, he might be in for his biggest game of the season to date.
Geno Atkins
Atkins gets his headlines thanks to an ability to pressure quarterbacks up the middle.
It's a key part of the game plan for the Bengals Sunday, but it shouldn't overshadow the work Atkins must do as a run defender to help shut down Charles.
Atkins has few problems dictating the direction of an opponent's ground game thanks to his penetration off the snap. He'll need to have one of his better games of the season when it comes to this matchup against Charles, though, especially considering the team's continued struggles with tackling.
Prediction
Though the schedule to date might look weaker in hindsight, through three games, the Bengals haven't given a soul a reason to doubt the team.
This one won't be as simple as records suggest, but the Bengals will pull it out if Dalton continues to play at his current level. He showed in the first two games he has no problems dishing the rock to weapons not named Green, which should prove an integral key to success against the Chiefs.
On defense, Atkins and others will be able to exploit a questionable offensive line. So long as the tackling issues get cleaned up, the unit will be able to uphold its end of the bargain at home.
Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Kansas City 17
Stats courtesy of NFL.com and are accurate as of October 2. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
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