
ACC's Playoff Hopes Ride on Clemson Knocking off Notre Dame
The term "elimination game" has become more liberalized in the College Football Playoff era. As 2014 Ohio State will attest, one game does not a season make.
However, the ACC's playoff hopes in many ways could be riding on Clemson's Week 5 home game against Notre Dame.
The importance of this game has been building for weeks—and the intrigue for months. Notre Dame's partial ACC membership, in which the Irish agreed to schedule five ACC opponents a year (six this year), was made for games like this.
However, it counts as a critical moment not just for Clemson, but for the ACC as well. Ralph Russo of the Associated Press put it bluntly: "[The] Irish cannot win the ACC, but they could do some serious damage to its playoff hopes."
Why? Let's look at the big picture first before working inward. Put simply, the ACC hasn't shown up in nonconference play, which didn't feature many marquee games anyway. Miami's 34-23 loss to Cincinnati on Thursday night was just the latest in a series of setbacks.
Ironically, the Hurricanes also had the ACC's best nonconference win vs. Nebraska, but the question posed by Dan Wolken of USA Today still generally holds true. The ACC hasn't shown playoff-caliber depth at the top of the conference.
So what's going on? As usual, the Coastal Division is anyone's to win. That has been aided by the fact that Georgia Tech, the preseason Coastal favorite as selected by the media, has lost in each of the past two weeks to Notre Dame and Duke. The Blue Devils, at 3-1, are now Coastal team of the month.
The strength of the ACC is clearly in the Atlantic division, where Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina State remain undefeated. However, the Wolfpack haven't been tested yet, and the Seminoles have looked shaky against South Florida and Boston College. Specifically, FSU's passing attack has been worrisome at best and nonexistent at worst.
Solid defense and a strong running game are Florida State's keys to a successful season. However, preseason predictions of a transition year for the Seminoles appear to be coming to fruition.
That brings us back to Clemson as the ACC's best playoff hope, and the Tigers have already struggled once this year (vs. Louisville). The 20-17 win over the Cardinals in Week 3 was a culmination of myriad forces coming together at once: It was a road game on a short week against a desperate opponent with an excellent defense. Meanwhile, the Tigers were without star receiver Mike Williams and shorthanded along the offensive line.
The result was a 20-17 escape. Clemson has had more time to prepare for the Irish, but many of the challenges remain. How will the Tigers stack up to the Irish in the trenches? The advantage would seemingly go to Notre Dame's defensive line, which played lights-out against Georgia Tech.
Can Clemson rediscover its vertical passing game even without Williams? That part of the offense was non-existent against Louisville, and quarterback Deshaun Watson looked rattled. As good as receiver Artavis Scott is, he's 5'11" and 190 pounds and has been more effective in the short-to-intermediate passing game.
How will the Tigers' rebuilt defense handle its toughest task of the year: Irish wide receiver William Fuller? The junior is one of college football's best deep threats, averaging 20.64 yards per reception and more than 100 yards per game to go along with six touchdowns.
Despite their injury problem, the Irish pose a lot of problems for any opponent. If Clemson isn't able to pull off the win this week, its opportunities to get another statement victory on the schedule are few and far between. The only ranked team on the Tigers' schedule as of Week 5 is Florida State. That's subject to change, of course, but it's a bleak outlook right now.
That doesn't bode well for the Tigers' playoff hopes, as ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit told Chance Linton of 247Sports:
"Clemson, on the other hand, they've gotta go out there and take advantage of this big stage. It's a big opportunity and they know it. They've taken advantage of these in the last three or four years. Dabo Swinney has taken this program consistently to a Top 10 program. And this is still Notre Dame. Even though they've beaten Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU, Auburn and Georgia in the last three years, this is still a great opportunity that they need to take advantage of, especially since it's being played in Death Valley. If they lose this game, I think it'd be tough for them to climb back into the Top 4.
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It's not impossible, but it's difficult. Context is also important. Should Clemson lose, will it be by three points or 30? That could go a long way toward determining whether head coach Dabo Swinney's team remains in the playoff conversation next week and in December.
Win, though, and Clemson could not only shoot to the top of the playoff discussion but stay there, despite a potential loss later in the year.
But we're getting ahead of ourselves here. However it plays out—whether the ACC's playoff hopes are lifted or deflated—this is the type of game for which college football fans have asked.
With any luck, we'll get what we want from it.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com.
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