Predicting How Final 2015 MLB Playoff-Race Weekend Will Play Out
Just four days remain in the 2015 MLB regular season, and there is still an awful lot to be sorted out between now and the start of the playoffs.
In the National League, all five playoff teams have been decided, but only the St. Louis Cardinals are locked in as the No. 1 overall seed.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are still battling it out for home-field advantage in their division series matchup, while the Pittsburgh Pirates are trying to hold off the Chicago Cubs for the right to host the Wild Card Game.
The American League is even more up in the air, as only two teams have clinched a spot so far in the Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals, and they are still battling for the No. 1 overall seed.
The Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels are all separated by three games in the AL West standings, while the two teams that miss out on the division title will battle the Minnesota Twins for the No. 2 wild-card spot.
The New York Yankees have yet to clinch a playoff spot but currently hold a 2.5-game cushion for the No. 1 wild-card spot.
That leaves us with no less than 11 teams with something to play for, whether it be a postseason spot or fighting for a higher seeding, heading into the final week of action.
With that in mind, what follows is a look ahead at all of the relevant upcoming series, complete with the projected pitching matchups, an overview of the series and a prediction of how the series will play out.
At the end you'll find an AL and NL postseason bracket reflecting those predictions.
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
1 of 11
Cubs Record: 93-65
Playoff Race Status: Chasing No. 1 WC (2.5 games behind PIT)
- Friday: Jake Arrieta vs. Ariel Pena
- Saturday: Kyle Hendricks vs. Tyler Wagner
- Sunday: Dan Haren vs. Jorge Lopez
The Chicago Cubs have already clinched their first playoff berth since 2008 and have ace Jake Arrieta positioned to start the Wild Card Game on full rest after he makes his final regular-season start on Friday.
However, they can still overtake the Pittsburgh Pirates for home-field advantage in that Wild Card Game at 2.5 games back in the standings with four to play.
The Cubs are one of the better road teams in the league at 44-33 away from Wrigley Field, and that includes 6-4 at PNC Park, so having to play that game in Pittsburgh wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
Especially with Arrieta on the mound, as he's pitched out of his mind the past two months. He's 10-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.644 WHIP in his last 11 starts.
Meanwhile, it looks like the final two games of the regular season will be auditions for the postseason rotation, with Kyle Hendricks and Dan Haren both looking to secure the No. 4 spot on the playoff staff.
Hendricks allowed just two hits and struck out nine in six scoreless innings in his last start, while Haren was even better with 7.1 scoreless innings.
The Cubs have already won their season series with the Milwaukee Brewers at 11-5, and they'll be going up against a trio of rookies in Ariel Pena, Tyler Wagner and Jorge Lopez, all of whom will be making their first appearances against the North Siders.
Keep an eye on Lopez, as he's someone the Cubs could see an awful lot of in the years to come. The 22-year-old went 12-5 with a 2.26 ERA, 1.095 WHIP and 137 strikeouts in 143.1 innings in Double-A this year, and he picked up the win in his first big league start earlier this week.
Prediction: Cubs take two of three, finish 95-67.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
2 of 11
Pirates Record: 96-63
Playoff Race Status: Chasing No. 1 WC (2.5 games up on CHC)
- Friday: Keyvius Sampson vs. Francisco Liriano
- Saturday: Brandon Finnegan vs. A.J. Burnett
- Sunday: Josh Smith vs. J.A. Happ
For the third straight season, the Pittsburgh Pirates are headed to the Wild Card Game, despite having the second-best record in baseball.
Their opponent is already set, as they'll be taking on Jake Arrieta and the Chicago Cubs, but they are still trying to secure the right to host that game, as they have a 2.5-game lead over the Cubs for the No. 1 wild-card spot.
The Pirates have played well enough on the road this year at 45-36, but they have been nothing short of dominant at home with a 51-27 record, as their 51 home wins are tied for the fifth most in baseball.
Then again, with Arrieta on the mound for the Cubs, it probably doesn't matter where they're playing, as offense figures to be at a premium either way.
Prior to that matchup, they'll look to close out the season strong with a three-game series against a last-place Cincinnati Reds team that they've struggled with this season.
The Reds have already clinched the season series at 10-6, and that includes a 4-2 record at PNC Park.
The Pirates have never faced Brandon Finnegan, but they did beat up on both Keyvius Sampson (11.1 IP, 8 H, 8 ER) and Josh Smith (5.0 IP, 4 H, 4 ER) in their three combined starts against them.
A.J. Burnett will be making perhaps his final big league start on Saturday as he continues to mull retirement, while J.A. Happ will look to keep rolling in the regular-season finale; he's gone 6-2 with a 2.04 ERA in 10 starts since joining the Pirates at the trade deadline.
Prediction: Pirates take two of three, finish 98-64.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
3 of 11
Dodgers Record: 88-70
Playoff Race Status: Chasing No. 2 seed (one game behind NYM)
- Friday: Casey Kelly vs. Alex Wood
- Saturday: Robbie Erlin vs. Zack Greinke
- Sunday: James Shields vs. Clayton Kershaw
With Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw each making their final starts of the season in the team's upcoming series against the San Diego Padres, two wins seem all but assured.
The question for the Dodgers, like it has been all season, is if someone else can step up as the team looks to overtake the New York Mets for home-field advantage in the division series.
That is if you believe having home-field advantage really does give you an edge.
"We don't pay attention to the crowds. Come on now. We like it when our crowds cheer for us at home, but it isn't going to affect us one way or another," Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez said, per Mark Saxon of ESPN.com.
That's all fine and good to say, but a quick look at the records tells a different story, as the Dodgers are a dominant 52-26 at home compared to 36-44 on the road.
Alex Wood will be tasked with starting the first game of the series with the Padres, as he looks to prove he deserves the No. 4 spot in the postseason rotation.
The left-hander is 4-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 11 starts since joining the Dodgers, and he allowed just three hits in seven scoreless innings in his one start against the Padres this season.
Casey Kelly and Robbie Erlin have yet to face the Dodgers this season, while James Shields is 1-0 with a 3.25 ERA in 25 innings of work over four starts.
The Dodgers have already clinched the season series (11-5).
Prediction: Dodgers take two of three, finish 91-71.
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Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
4 of 11
Mets Record: 89-69
Playoff Race Status: Chasing No. 2 seed (one game up on LAD)
- Friday: Gio Gonzalez vs. Noah Syndergaard
- Saturday: Max Scherzer vs. Matt Harvey
- Sunday: Tanner Roark vs. Jacob deGrom
"We're going to play to win as many games as we can and to try to get home-field advantage in the first round," Mets manager Terry Collins recently said, according to Saxon.
"I think it's very, very important to have that. I think it's something to shoot for. I think when you're still playing for something, it prepares you better."
For the Mets, home-field advantage would mean not having to face Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw back-to-back at Dodger Stadium where the Dodgers are 52-26 on the year.
The Mets currently have a one-game lead over the Dodgers, so it could go either way at this point, and as a result, the Mets have Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom lined up to close out the season.
Syndergaard and Harvey will likely be on a relatively short leash as their innings continue to be monitored, but having those three start should put the Mets in a great position to lock up the No. 2 seed.
Standing in the way are the Washington Nationals, who probably just want their wildly disappointing season to be over but will still be looking to play spoiler against a division rival.
The Mets hold a 10-6 edge in the season series, with Harvey (33.0 IP, 26 H, 10 ER), deGrom (30.1 IP, 25 H, 11 ER) and Syndergaard (13.0 IP, 12 H, 3 ER) going a combined 5-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 12 starts.
To their credit, Gio Gonzalez (17.2 IP, 16 H, 3 ER) and Max Scherzer (20.2 IP, 16 H, 6 ER) have both pitched well against the Mets, but avoiding the red-hot Stephen Strasburg is a bonus for New York.
Prediction: Mets win two of three, finish 92-70.
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
5 of 11
Yankees Record: 86-72
Playoff Race Status: Chasing No. 1 WC (2.5 games up on HOU)
- Friday: Adam Warren vs. Wei-Yin Chen
- Saturday: Luis Severino vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
- Sunday: Michael Pineda vs. Chris Tillman
Now that the Toronto Blue Jays have clinched the AL East title, the New York Yankees will turn their full attention to locking down the right to host the AL Wild Card Game.
They have a 2.5-game lead over the Houston Astros for that top wild-card spot, but as they look to snap a three-game losing streak, nothing is guaranteed at this point.
The big story for the Yankees right now is the health of likely Wild Card Game starter Masahiro Tanaka, who returned to the mound Wednesday for his first action since Sept. 18 after being sidelined with a strained hamstring. He allowed five hits and four runs in five innings for a no-decision.
Turning our attention back to the final series with the Baltimore Orioles, the Yankees are up 9-7 in the season series and looking to rebound from dropping two of three in New York the last time they squared off earlier this month.
Rookie Luis Severino will be facing Baltimore for the first time Saturday, while Adam Warren (12.0 IP, 15 H, 6 ER) and Michael Pineda (23.2 IP, 30 H, 15 ER) have both been hit hard by the Orioles lineup this season.
Wei-Yin Chen will make what will likely be his final start in an Orioles uniform Friday, while Ubaldo Jimenez (14.1 IP, 18 H, 13 ER) and Chris Tillman (5.2 IP, 10 H, 4 ER) are 2-2 in their four starts against the Yankees despite rough numbers.
We'll say Severino picks up a win in his start and makes a convincing case to be a key part of the postseason rotation, but the Yankees will drop the series when Tillman throws a gem Sunday.
Prediction: Yankees win one of three, finish 88-74.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
6 of 11
Blue Jays Record: 92-66
Playoff Race Status: Chasing No. 1 seed (one game up on KC)
- Friday: Mark Buehrle vs. Erasmo Ramirez
- Saturday: Marco Estrada vs. Chris Archer
- Sunday: TBA vs. Matt Moore
Despite officially clinching the AL East title Wednesday, the Toronto Blue Jays still have something to play for as they look to secure the best record in the American League.
That would mean a meeting with the Wild Card Game winner but, more importantly, avoiding a Texas Rangers squad that is playing terrific baseball right now and figures to be a tough draw come October.
Mark Buehrle will take the ball Friday needing 8.2 innings to reach 200 for the 15th consecutive season, the longest active streak in the majors.
If he doesn't reach the 200 mark by the end of his outing Friday, there's a chance he could turn around and pitch again on short rest Sunday, according to Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star.
He was originally slated to be followed by ace David Price, but the Blue Jays have decided to rest their ace—who has already thrown 220.1 innings on the year—until the playoffs, according to Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com.
Marco Estrada moves up to Saturday in what will likely just be a tune-up before being part of the postseason rotation, with the starter for Sunday yet to be determined.
Don't be surprised it winds up being Buehrle for however many innings he needs to get to 200, then Drew Hutchison in a piggyback start to eat some innings.
The American League Division Series is set to begin Oct. 8, and the Blue Jays will be playing in Toronto regardless of whether they hold onto that No. 1 seed or slip back to the No. 2 seed.
Prediction: Blue Jays win two of three to finish 95-67.
Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
7 of 11
Astros Record: 84-75
Playoff Race Status: Chasing No. 2 WC (half-game up of LAA)
- Friday: Dallas Keuchel vs. Rubby De La Rosa
- Saturday: Collin McHugh vs. Jeremy Hellickson
- Sunday: Lance McCullers vs. Robbie Ray
After entering the month of September with a four-game lead in the AL West standings, the Houston Astros now find themselves in a three-team battle just to reach the postseason in the second wild-card spot.
They are still technically within striking distance of the division title at 2.5 games behind the Texas Rangers, but right now the focus is simply on holding off the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins to secure a postseason berth.
AL Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel will make his final regular-season start Friday, which means he would have just three days' rest going into the Wild Card Game on Oct. 6.
Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers would be options to start for the Astros on full rest, but it's hard to see anyone but Keuchel taking the ball in that do-or-die situation, especially considering the success he's had against the New York Yankees this year with just nine hits allowed in 16 scoreless innings.
As for the weekend matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Astros took two of three in their one series earlier this year at the end of July.
The three starters for the Diamondbacks are actually the same three that started that earlier series, with Rubby De La Rosa (6.0 IP, 8 H, 4 ER) earning a no-decision and both Jeremy Hellickson (3.1 IP, 7 H, 6 ER) and Robbie Ray (5.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER) picking up a loss.
Meanwhile, Collin McHugh (7.0 IP, 8 H, 1 ER) and Keuchel (6.0 IP, 2 H, 2 ER) both won their respective starts in that series, while the rookie McCullers will be facing the D-backs for the first time in his career on the final day of the season.
Prediction: Astros sweep, finish 87-75.
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
8 of 11
Royals Record: 91-67
Twins Record: 82-76
Royals Playoff Race Status: Chasing No. 1 seed (one game behind TOR)
Twins Playoff Race Status: Chasing No. 2 WC (1.5 games behind HOU)
- Friday: Chris Young vs. Ervin Santana
- Saturday: Yordano Ventura vs. Tommy Milone
- Sunday: Johnny Cueto vs. Phil Hughes
It all comes down to this series for the Minnesota Twins, as they look to cap off what has been a surprise run at contention this year by securing the second wild-card spot.
The Kansas City Royals still have something to play for as well, though, as they try to overtake the Toronto Blue Jays for the best record in the AL and the No. 1 seed in the division series.
The Royals hold a slim 9-7 edge in the season series, though the Twins did take two of three in Kansas City last time to two faced off earlier this month.
Looking at the projected pitching matchups, Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes both turned in quality starts in their lone appearances against the Royals this season, while Tommy Milone went six innings and allowed four hits and four earned runs in his one outing against them.
The Twins touched up Yordano Ventura for eight hits and four runs in 5.1 innings in his one start against them, and Johnny Cueto has yet to face Minnesota since coming over at the deadline. Chris Young has been great, though, posting a 1.62 ERA in 16.2 innings over two starts and two relief appearances.
Young could be pitching for a spot in the postseason rotation with the final two spots behind Ventura and Cueto still up in the air, so expect him to bring his A-game Friday.
Looking ahead to the postseason, Ventura will be in line to start Game 1 of the division series, while the Twins have lined up Kyle Gibson as the potential Wild Card Game starter.
There's little question Gibson has been the team's best starter at 11-11 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 194.2 innings, but he has not fared well against the New York Yankees, the likely Wild Card Game opponent. In two starts, he's allowed 10 hits and 12 earned runs in 10.1 innings of work.
Prediction: Royals win two of three to finish 93-69; Twins finish 84-78.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
9 of 11
Angels Record: 83-75
Rangers Record: 86-72
Angels Playoff Race Status: Chasing No. 2 WC (half-game behind HOU)
Rangers Playoff Race Status: Chasing AL West title (2.5 games up on HOU)
- Thursday: Andrew Heaney vs. Derek Holland
- Friday: Jered Weaver vs. Martin Perez
- Saturday: Hector Santiago vs. Colby Lewis
- Sunday: Nick Tropeano vs. Cole Hamels
In the biggest matchup of the weekend, two AL West teams square off with both still looking to secure their spots in the postseason.
The Texas Rangers have mounted an impressive late-season push to overtake the Houston Astros in the AL West standings, and their magic number to clinch stands at two.
After looking like the clear No. 3 team in the division for most of the year, the Los Angeles Angels have been playing their best baseball of late, going 7-1 in their last eight games to storm back into the wild-card picture.
The Angels have already clinched the season series with a 10-5 advantage on the strength of a 7-2 record in three first-half meetings, but it's fair to say this is a different Rangers team now and that past success doesn't carry much weight.
In fact, with the series being played in Texas, the Angels appear to be at a clear disadvantage, as they have not played well on the road this season at 34-43.
Nine different starters have taken the mound for the Rangers in the 15 games the teams have played so far, with Colby Lewis (21.2 IP, 31 H, 20 ER) struggling in his four starts, while Derek Holland (8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER) and Martin Perez (6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER) both pitched well in their lone appearances.
Hector Santiago (30.1 IP, 17 H, 5 ER) has dominated the Rangers in five starts against them, while Andrew Heaney, Jered Weaver and Nick Tropeano all went six innings in their head-to-head meetings against Texas this year.
That means Garrett Richards is set up to start the Wild Card Game if the Angels get there. He failed to make it out of the first inning in his one start against the Yankees this year when he allowed five hits and six earned runs in two-thirds of an inning.
Prediction: Series is split 2-2; Angels finish 85-77, and Rangers finish 88-74.
National League Bracket
10 of 11
No. 1 Seed: Cardinals (101-61)
No. 2 Seed: Mets (92-70)
No. 3 Seed: Dodgers (91-71)
Wild Card Game: Cubs (95-67) at Pirates (98-64)
NLDS Matchup: Cubs/Pirates at Cardinals
NLDS Matchup: Dodgers at Mets
American League Bracket
11 of 11
No. 1 Seed: Blue Jays (95-67)
No. 2 Seed: Royals (93-69)
No. 3 Seed: Rangers (88-74)
Wild Card Game: Astros (87-75) at Yankees (88-74)
ALDS Matchup: Astros/Yankees at Blue Jays
ALDS Matchup: Rangers at Royals
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All records up to date entering Thursday.
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