Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State Complete Game Preview
Texas A&M repeated history with a second straight comeback win over Arkansas in Arlington last weekend.
It hopes to avoid repeating history when it hosts Mississippi State on Saturday.
The Bulldogs roasted the Aggies in Week 6 last season, rebounding from an early 7-0 hole by running up 28 consecutive points and eventually leading by as much as 38 in a 48-24 win.
The loss was A&M's first of the year after a 5-0 start and knocked the Aggies from No. 6 to No. 14 in the Associated Press poll. Worse than that, it started their descent over the second half of the season, which started so promising but ended with five losses and a trip to the Liberty Bowl.
Can Kevin Sumlin's team exact revenge? LSU did in Week 2 after losing to the Bulldogs last season. But Dan Mullen's team rebounded with a solid win at Auburn and now finds itself at No. 21 in the AP rankings, contending for another SEC title.
Here's everything you need to know for gameweek.
Date: Saturday, October 3
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Kyle Field; College Station, Texas
TV: SEC Network
Line: Texas A&M -7, according to Odds Shark
Note: All advanced stats via SB Nation's Bill Connelly. All recruiting info refers to 247Sports' composite rankings.
Texas A&M Keys to Victory
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Create Big Plays on Passing Downs
Texas A&M's offense has been explosive on standard downs (No. 8 in the country in Isolated Points per Play) but conservative on passing downs (No. 109). When teams commit extra defensive backs, they keep the Aggies in front of them. That might spell trouble against Mississippi State, which prevents big plays on standard downs (No. 26 in IsoPPP) but opens the door on passing downs (No. 71). The Bulldogs play efficient passing-down defense, so the Aggies' best shot might be swinging for the fences.
Exploit the Bulldogs Offensive Line
Mississippi State's offensive line lost All-SEC guard Ben Beckwith, four-year starting tackle Blaine Causell and four-year starting center Dillon Day from last season. That's enough to turn a strength (which this unit was in 2014) into an area of concern. Texas A&M ranks No. 4 in the country in tackles for loss and has the perfect defense to exploit that area of concern. It needs to buy a mortgage in the Bulldogs' offensive backfield.
Avoid Pesky Turnovers
Last year's meeting devolved into a blowout once the Aggies started throwing interceptions. Mississippi State won the turnover battle 3-0, parlaying those takeaways into 14 points. The Aggies played a clean game against Arkansas but had three turnovers against Arizona State and two against Nevada. Against an opportunistic defense—albeit one that's struggled forcing turnovers this season—they will have to play more like last week than earlier in the year.
Mississippi State Keys to Victory
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Pressure Kyle Allen on Standard Downs
Mississippi State's biggest strength, pressuring the quarterback, aligns with Texas A&M's biggest weakness, protecting the quarterback. The Bulldogs rank No. 10 in the country in adjusted sack rate and No. 11 with 12 sacks, while the Aggies rank No. 122 in the country in adjusted sack rate and No. 111 with 12 sacks allowed. Manny Diaz's defense is aggressive, deep and likes to attack on standard downs (No. 3 in adjusted sack rate), when A&M is most vulnerable (No. 122).
Fix the Running Game
Texas A&M's defense has improved against the run, but that's still where teams need to hit it. The Aggies allowed both Ball State and Arkansas to rush for 230-plus yards and average 5.5-plus yard per carry. Unfortunately, the Bulldogs haven't found much of a running game after losses along the offensive line and at running back, where Josh Robinson is sorely missed. Tim Tebow-style quarterback Dak Prescott might need 25-30 carries to win this thing.
Keep Up the Third-Down Defense
Mississippi State's defense has been awesome on third down, ranking No. 6 in the country in S&P+ and No. 10 with a 22.8 percent conversion rate. Conversely, the Aggies have struggled, ranking No. 110 in the country in S&P+ and No. 41 with a 43.4 percent conversion rate. They converted only two of nine third downs against Arkansas, which played a big role in the Razorbacks' near-victory. The Bulldogs need to follow that blueprint.
Texas A&M Players to Watch
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DE Myles Garrett
Myles Garrett played the best game of his freshman season against Mississippi State. He logged a career-high 10 tackles and recorded one of his (surprisingly rare) full sacks during SEC play. He's improved across the board as a sophomore and peaked with a clutch fourth-quarter strip-sack last week against Arkansas. Watch him tee off against a rebuilt offensive line.
LT Avery Gennesy
Avery Gennesy lands back in the spotlight against the best defensive front he's played this season. The Bulldogs will attack with future pros such as Chris Jones and A.J. Jefferson, and Gennesy, who's impressed against lesser competition, will have to be up to the task. Arkansas has a useful defensive front and served as a good warm-up game, but the Bulldogs are a step up in competition. This game will be a litmus test before facing Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU.
WR Christian Kirk
Christian Kirk arrived with high expectations, same as any other 5-star recruit, but he's somehow making our predictions look conservative. He had another huge game against Arkansas and now leads the SEC with 442 receiving yards. With 805 all-purpose yards through four games, he's on pace to finish with the highest per-game average of any freshman in FBS history, breaking the record set by Jeremy Maclin in 2007 (198.3). How long can he keep this hype train rolling?
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Mississippi State Players to Watch
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LB Richie Brown
Richie Brown is a name the 12th Man remembers well. The then-backup linebacker recorded three interceptions in last year's meeting, shattering quarterback Kenny Hill's confidence in a way from which he never recovered. Brown has assumed a bigger role this season and leads Mississippi State with 39 tackles; he also just won SEC Defensive Player of the Week honors for his role in beating Auburn. Allen would do well to avoid him…just to be safe.
DE A.J. Jefferson
Jefferson also had a big game against the Aggies last year, recording 1.5 sacks and four QB hurries. Like Brown, he has parlayed that into bigger things this season: 23 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, three sacks and one forced fumble through four games. He and Chris Jones are the two players A&M must keep circled.
QB Dak Prescott
When you talk about Mississippi State's offense, you begin and end with Prescott. He's had a rougher go to start this season than last season, but he's carrying roughly three times as much weight with all the Bulldogs lost around him. His accuracy comes and goes, but there's no throw he can't make when he's on his game. That and his ability as a downhill runner should have A&M's defense worried.
What They're Saying
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Texas A&M
Sumlin after the Arkansas game, per Kate Hairopoulos of the Dallas Morning News:
"What a game, huh? We had to get some breaks at the end. But you know how this game is, you make your own breaks.
This is the kind of thing you don't want to go through as a coach. But when you come out on the winning side, you're glad it happened. And there's some real lessons that can be learned from tonight…some things, obviously, we've got to shore up.
But there's positives, and we're 1-0 in the SEC.
"
Sumlin on Prescott, as stated after last year's game in Starkville, per quotes released by Mississippi State:
"Dak Prescott was extremely efficient in his handling and how he played running the ball. They (Mississippi State) made some plays on the perimeter in tight coverage, and some of the back shoulder throws were perfect.
He (Dak) played like he’s played all year—like one of the best players in the country. We weren’t able to match that as a team.
"
Mississippi State
Head coach Dan Mullen on the Bulldogs' lack of rushing attempts through four games, per quotes released by the school:
"We’re going do what we’re going do to win. A lot of people will still play us to stop the run first, and we’re able to throw the ball. That doesn’t concern me. I bet our total plays number is low, too, because we didn’t get to run a lot of plays Saturday night on offense or during game one. To me, when you look at those stats, especially early in the season, they can become really skewed one way or another. One game can really skew your stats early in the season. During the course of the season, that’ll balance out.
"
Mullen on preparing for Aggies defensive coordinator John Chavis, per the same source:
"The first time that I saw a John Chavis defense, I was coaching at Syracuse in 1998. We were playing Tennessee. He always tweaks. He has his package. He’s going to take his package and then build it around the strength of his players. They’re going to be very aggressive. I think having really athletic defensive ends plays to the strength of what his defense is. He has great man-coverage cornerbacks, and that plays to his strength. He can load the box with numbers, man you up on the outside and if you want to try to pass, he can get to you in a hurry. I think the talent that he came into at A&M really helps his scheme. Those are the type of players I think he wants in his scheme.
"
Prescott on the keys to playing A&M's defensive line, per the same source:
"I have to make sure I know what the offensive line is thinking in terms of protection, be on the same page with the offensive line, make sure we are sliding to the right guys, know my matchups in case a defensive lineman ends up on the running back or stuff like that. Being on the road, the cadence, (we have to) make sure they are not timing our cadence and trying to get a good jump on the ball.
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Prediction
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Mississippi State's defense matches up well with the Aggies offense. Its front seven will cause problems for A&M's offensive line—the first shaky unit Sumlin has coached in College Station.
That could make one side of the ball look a lot like the Arkansas game. The other side, however, should look different. Arkansas tested (and for the most part outplayed) Texas A&M in the trenches, exposing the Aggies run defense as improved but still not fixed. Mississippi State lacks the bodies to exploit that as consistently.
Can the Bulldogs still pull the outright upset? Definitely. If Prescott puts the offense on his back, there's a good chance they do. I think Dak carries them into a close, four-quarter game but probably lacks the supporting cast to get them over the hump.
Kyle Field pushes the Aggies to 5-0.
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