Florida vs. Ole Miss Complete Game Preview
The No. 25 Florida Gators are ranked in the Associated Press poll for the first time since 2013, but unless they upset No. 4 Ole Miss in the Swamp on Saturday, their stay won't last more than a week.
The Rebels own one of the two strongest wins in college football this season (the other being what Utah just did to Oregon) after thoroughly beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa two weeks ago. They didn't look as sharp against Vanderbilt in Week 4, but that can be forgiven considering where the Commodores landed on the schedule.
Florida, meanwhile, beat Tennessee for the 11th consecutive time in dramatic fashion in Week 4, converting five fourth downs and erasing a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit. Receiver Antonio Callaway caught the game-winning 63-yard touchdown from quarterback Will Grier with less than 90 seconds left on the clock.
It was a stunning home debut for head coach Jim McElwain in SEC play. But Ole Miss won't be as gracious to the Gators if they struggle to move the ball for 50-plus minutes. Everything they did well in spurts against Tennessee must be done well from start to finish.
Otherwise, the magic will subside.
Date: Saturday, October 3
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium; Gainesville, Florida
TV: ESPN
Line: Ole Miss -7, according to Odds Shark
Florida Keys to Victory
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Convert Third Downs
Crazy stat from Florida's 4-0 start: It converted more third downs in Week 1 against New Mexico (10) than in its next three games combined (nine). It's survived thanks to great success on fourth down and (let's be honest) luck, but that won't get the job done on Saturday. Florida lacks the explosiveness to beat Ole Miss over the top; its best chance is manufacturing points and keeping its defense off the field.
Prevent Big Passing Plays on Standard Downs
Ole Miss has won with explosiveness on offense. According to SB Nation's Bill Connelly, it ranks No. 9 in the country in Isolated Points Per Play and No. 2 in that regard on standard-down passes. On passing downs it skews more conservative, but it likes to test the deep-third early. Florida's defensive line and linebackers must win against the run, allowing the defense to commit more safeties to center field and provide help over the top.
Win the First Quarter
Ole Miss has had the best first-quarter offense in the country, according to Connelly's S&P+ ratings. It's thrown and landed big punches early, knocking teams off-balance and then playing from ahead. But Florida has a strong first-quarter defense (No. 13 in S&P+) and can ride what's expected to be a crazy home environment. Ole Miss won't be rattled after playing the College GameDay game at Alabama, but the Swamp can still make a huge impact early. We still don't know if the Rebels can play from behind.
Ole Miss Keys to Victory
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Make Will Grier's Life Miserable
Florida's offensive line ranks No. 105 in the country in adjusted sack rate, so in theory, Ole Miss should tee off on it. However, the Rebels rank surprisingly low in defensive-line adjusted sack rate (No. 111) and need to find better production on the edge. Knowing the Rebels have struggled to pressure quarterbacks, Florida might open up the playbook and give Grier more to do. If that's the case, Ole Miss must make a shaky offensive line pay the price.
Convert Power-Running Situations
Ole Miss has felt the loss of Laremy Tunsil, its suspended All-American left tackle, in the running game more than the passing game. It gained 243 yards on 74 carries against Alabama and Vanderbilt, struggling most in power-running situations (3rd- and 4th-and-2 or fewer), where its 38.9 percent conversion rate ranks No. 127 in the country. Tunsil's status remains undecided, but no matter who lines up along the line, Ole Miss will have its hands full with Jonathan Bullard, Alex McCalister, Joey Ivie and Bryan Cox Jr. up front. It can't let Florida exploit that advantage.
Avoid Negative Plays
On that note, Ole Miss also needs to create power-running situations. It can't negate successful plays with negative plays and get stranded on 3rd-and-long. The Gators rank No. 6 in the country in havoc rate, creating either a tackle for loss, interception, fumble or pass breakup on 16 percent of plays. Again, this comes down to whether Ole Miss' offensive line can handle Florida's defensive front seven.
Florida Players to Watch
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QB Will Grier
The tests keep getting harder, and technically Grier keeps passing them, but he's not exactly earning high marks. He's won fans with his moxie and his late-game heroics, but he needs to play better on a down-to-down, drive-to-drive basis. Ole Miss prevents big passing plays (No. 5 in IsoPPP) but is vulnerable against efficient quarterbacks (No. 48 in passing success rate), and that's what Grier needs to play like. This needs to be the best game of his career.
CB Vernon Hargreaves III
Vernon Hargreaves III is dealing with a back injury, but McElwain said he seems OK, per Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel. He'll need to be at his best against Ole Miss wide receiver Laquon Treadwell, one of the best perimeter players in America. Amari Cooper toasted Hargreaves in a similar spot last season, and even though Hargreaves played better than Cooper's stats suggest, he'll need to play even better than that against Treadwell. This battle of top-15 prospects from the 2013 recruiting class will dominate pregame headlines and play a huge role in deciding who wins on Saturday.
Interior Offensive Linemen
Speaking of top-15 prospects from the 2013 recruiting class: Ole Miss has the No. 1 overall player. Defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche is a one-man battering ram up the middle, which is dangerous against a shaky offensive line. Center Cam Dillard and guards Trip Thurman and Antonio Riles must contain Nkemdiche whatever the cost. Nothing will hurt Grier's performance more than interior pressure.
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Ole Miss Players to Watch
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WRs Not Named Treadwell
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Hargreaves shuts down Treadwell. Who on Ole Miss will make plays? Receivers Cody Core, Quincy Adeboyejo and Damore'ea Stringfellow have played well, and tight end Evan Engram can be a game-changer, but Florida has a deeper, stronger secondary than any team the Rebels have faced (yes, that includes Alabama). Can Treadwell's supporting cast carry the load opposite him and Hargreaves? Ole Miss can't pin its hopes on targeting the nation's No. 1 cornerback.
QB Chad Kelly
Chad "Swag" Kelly posted huge numbers at Alabama: 18-of-33 for 341 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. However, if you omit the pair of long TDs—one of which came on a lucky chuck, the other of which featured an illegal blocker downfield—those stats come down to roughly 50 percent completions for 202 yards and one score. Kelly also threw picks against Vanderbilt last weekend, which is not yet cause for panic but should be monitored. He can't become another Bo Wallace.
DT Robert Nkemdiche
Watch him on every play, because his stats almost never do him justice. Nkemdiche warrants nonstop attention and wreaks havoc despite facing double- and sometimes triple-teams inside. Defensive ends have created more pressure against Florida than tackles, but Nkemdiche has the size (6'4", 296 lbs) and speed to line up all over the line. Ole Miss will try to isolate him on Florida's weakest blockers, wind him up and let him loose.
What They're Saying
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Florida
McElwain after the win over Tennessee, per quotes released by the Vols:
"I love the fact that these are some of the situations that we work on and you've heard me talk a lot about the situations in football. Our guys didn't panic and that was good to see. They played their hearts out for the Gators and the fans and previous Gators (alumni). You just don't lose to Tennessee and they didn't. I don't know if we deserved it or not, but I prefer this way. It was pretty cool, wasn't it?
"
McElwain on why he still won't name Grier the permanent starting quarterback over Treon Harris, per Edgar Thompson of the Orlando Sentinel:
"We’ll see, we’ll see how it goes this week in practice. I thought Will did some real good things in the game, but there’s some things he’s got to get better at, too.
Those two drives at the end are what he’s supposed to do. That’s what you do when you play the position. We practice it that way and he executed it. There were a lot of drives there that weren’t executed, so we’ve got a long ways to go. And he knows it too, he sees it on film and realizes how he can get better.
There’s a certain expectation level that you need to have as a player. And there’s a lot of plays you want back. There’s a lot of great plays he made, but that’s part of the maturation process at being a quarterback. If we can go ahead and make them on third downs, that’d be good. That’s part of growing up.
"
Ole Miss
Head coach Hugh Freeze on Florida's defense, per quotes released by the school:
"They have one of the nation’s best defenses. They are only giving up 17-18 points per game. They have tremendous get-off on the defensive line. Jonathan Bullard has eight tackles for loss and multiple sacks. I think playing in front of their crowd, on their field, when you have to communicate there it is very advantageous for their defensive line. Their linebackers are extremely athletic and everyone knows about their back end. They are definitely one of the best defenses in the country and they are going to test us for sure.
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Freeze on the potential for missing offensive linemen to return, per the same source:
"We have several guys that are beat up. As far as offensive lineman, we’d love to have Justin Bell, Rod Taylor and Laremy Tunsil back as soon as possible. We are missing those three guys. They are some of our more experienced, athletic guys. Bell is going to try and go this week for sure. Taylor looked better yesterday. It just takes time for him to get his shoulder strong enough for him to play with confidence. He is getting stronger each day and could probably help us with 20 or so snaps for this week. I know that I have been told that progress has been made in Tunsil’s situation last week, so we are all pushing to get him back on the field as soon as possible.
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Prediction
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Ole Miss is better than Tennessee, and Tennessee was good enough to lead 27-14 in the fourth quarter at Florida.
The transitive property is flawed with regard to team comparison, but in this case it supports what I've seen on the field.
Here's another note with respect to handicapping: The FEI projections have Ole Miss winning by 18 points, 33-15. When compared with the seven-point spread, that gives the Rebels an 11-point disparity.
Only six road favorites have enjoyed a 10-plus point disparity this season, and all six have covered in addition to winning outright. As a precedent, the game compares closely with Stanford at Oregon State last weekend, when the Cardinal (-15.5) beat the Beavers 42-24.
Let's go with something similar: a semi-comfortable win but a close-enough game that Rebels bettors sweat the cover.
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