Tennessee Volunteers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Complete Game Preview
The Tennessee hype train derailed in the Sunshine State this past weekend after veering off track in Knoxville a couple weeks back. Arkansas' hype disappeared somewhere between Fayetteville and Dallas.
Now, this weekend, the two SEC programs that received a lot of the preseason national attention as being dark-horse conference contenders will collide in Knoxville in must-win situations.
Both coaches are trying to turn things around in the face of potential disaster.
Or, as USA Today's Dan Wolken said, the Volunteers and Razorbacks will meet in the "Sadness Bowl."
Tennessee has to pick up the pieces after some puzzling coaching decisions and disastrous fourth-quarter defense allowed Florida to come from 13 points down to win 28-27 for its 11th consecutive win in the series. The gut-wrencher came just two weeks after blowing a 17-point lead to lose to Oklahoma in overtime.
Arkansas, meanwhile, dropped a shocker to Toledo before Texas Tech and Texas A&M handed the Hogs losses to give Bret Bielema's team three straight setbacks.
It's still early in the season, but with the teams' upcoming schedules, this one is huge for both. Let's take a look at everything you need to know.
Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Place: Neyland Stadium; Knoxville, Tennessee
TV: ESPN2
Radio: Vol Network, Razorback Sports Network
Spread: Vols by 7.5 according to OddsShark.com
Tennessee Keys to Victory
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Lose the chart
Twice this season, UT coach Butch Jones has made mention of external data assisting him in making a crucial call that wound up backfiring.
First, he chose to kick an early-game field goal from the 1-yard line against Oklahoma rather than going for it. Prior to that, he gave the ball to Alvin Kamara on the goal line rather than 242-pound running back Jalen Hurd. Afterward, Jones cited analytics.
Then in the Florida game, Jones elected to kick an extra point with the Vols ahead 26-14 early in the fourth quarter rather than going for two to give them what would have been a 14-point lead.
Of course, the Gators scored two touchdowns, kicked both extra points and beat UT 28-27 in the most Tennessee-Florida, of-course-that-happened finish ever, leading USA Today's Dan Wolken to write:
"After the game, Jones defended his decision to go for the extra point, saying he referred to a chart that's 'standard' in football. If that's what the chart says, light it on fire. How about using your brain once in awhile?
"
There's no other way to put it: Tennessee is a 4-0 team that sits 2-2 mostly because of coaching blunders.
Other issues contributed, sure, but Jones' and his assistants' decisions to not accept penalties, call puzzling timeouts, not send defensive pressure on fourth downs and go ultra-conservative in play-calling with the lead are major, inexcusable gaffes.
This staff has to get better quickly.
Find the pass
Tennessee had only two wide receivers catch a pass against Florida. None were named Marquez North, Josh Malone or Von Pearson—arguably the Vols' most talented receivers.
That's inexplicable.
Whether quarterback Joshua Dobbs can't throw the ball consistently downfield or offensive coordinator Mike DeBord doesn't trust him to, the Vols must get that fixed. They were far too one-dimensional against Florida, and it cost them.
Maybe Pig Howard will return from his injury against Arkansas, but even if he doesn't, UT has enough talent in the receiving corps to make plays. There are serious issues with the Vols' receiver rotation that perhaps doesn't allow for anybody to get in the flow of the game.
The Hogs have the worst pass defense in the SEC so far. If the Vols can't get it fixed this week, changes must be made either at quarterback, at receiver or in the offensive scheme.
Trust your players
Jones has recruited as well as anybody in the nation over the past three seasons.
Yes, they're young, but they're good. They've proved that they can hang with some top-shelf teams.
It's time to trust those guys and their talent.
Either Dobbs can throw downfield and win football games, or he shouldn't be your quarterback. Either the receivers need to make plays in the passing game, or they need to stand on the sideline while somebody who will gets reps. Either your pass-rushers can get to the quarterback, or they should lose trying.
When Tennessee gets leads, it clinches up and starts playing not to lose. The Oklahoma and Florida games were worse than the final years of Johnny Majors when it comes to playing conservatively.
Jones wasn't wrong to believe his defense could stop just one of the five fourth downs Florida faced in the fourth quarter. But if the Vols had completed just one first-down pass on that final drive, the Gators may never have seen the field.
Instead, the Vols went Hurd, Hurd, Dobbs keeper, punt.
UT has recruited as well as anybody. It's time to let the players play and hope they make the plays to win the game.
Arkansas Keys to Victory
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Punch it in
Arkansas has struggled to score points for much of the season, and that's puzzling considering the strong running game coupled with the resurgence of fifth-year senior quarterback Brandon Allen.
It's really about executing offensively.
The Hogs physically dominated the majority of the game against Texas A&M (out-gaining the Aggies 457-423), but they didn't make the plays when they needed to or finish drives when they could have, and it got them beat.
This is a veteran offense with a strong offensive line that can impose their will on opponents. Tennessee, meanwhile, is still very young all over the field and particularly on defense. That has to be an area that Arkansas exploits, and they can't just settle for field goals.
If this gets into a slug-fest, it favors Arkansas.
Forget you, and forget you, too
It's a little bit odd that Arkansas' players and coaches don't seem too concerned about a three-game losing streak and a sense of urgency at this point of the season, but Allen explained it pretty succinctly following the overtime loss to Texas A&M.
"I don't want to say it, but this is territory that we've been before," Brandon Allen told ESPN.com. "We've lost games in Round 4."
Indeed, the Razorbacks spiraled early in the season last year before finding their sea legs and beginning to dominate late in the season.
But you know this start has to smart.
After all the talk surrounding Arkansas, Bret Bielema's bunch has fallen flat so far. Prior to the game against the Aggies, all of the talk coming out of the Hogs' camp was that SEC play started a new season, and the past was going to be in the past.
Then, they lost again.
So, it must start now. If the Hogs can't beat the Vols, making it to a bowl game looks like long odds.
Get After Dobbs
It isn't like Tennessee has been throwing the football with any authority this year, anyway, but one thing Joshua Dobbs has yet to prove is that he can remain calm and poised in the pocket in the face of a blitz.
Early in the Florida game, Tennessee right tackle Brett Kendrick struggled so badly in protection that he was pulled. It's been a constant struggle for the Vols on the right side of the line.
Arkansas' pass rush has been putrid this year, registering just three sacks so far. So that bodes well for UT. But if the Hogs can find a way to exploit UT's young line and rattle Dobbs, the Vols have proven they will abandon the pass pretty quickly.
Making the Vols one-dimensional plays right into the hands of Arkansas' stingy rush defense. So, that needs to be a focus entering the game.
Tennessee Players to Watch
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Alvin Kamara
Tennessee running back Jalen Hurd is a budding superstar whose name would be known by everybody in college football if the Vols could just win.
But Kamara is only showing flashes of what he can do with the ball in his hands the past couple of games. Tennessee coaches must integrate him more into the game plan.
After he returned a punt for a touchdown against Western Carolina, Kamara had another nifty return against the Gators. He also caught three passes for 33 yards, had 16 rushing yards and completed a 24-yard pass on a jump-pass for a big play.
The JUCO transfer can do it all, but UT needs to get the ball to him in space. He's the kind of playmaker who can be a difference-maker in this game.
Marquez North
Is he completely healthy? Is he just not the same player following surgery? Is he hampered by a struggling passing game with Joshua Dobbs at the helm?
Where the heck is North?
UT's 6'3", 229-pound junior has been pegged as a breakout superstar for a couple of years now—yet he has just four catches for 38 yards this year.
Prior to the WCU game, coach Butch Jones told GoVols247's Wes Rucker that North would get more involved, but he was still shaking off the rust from his shoulder injury and trying to get into a rhythm.
"I think it's a combination of all that. I just spoke with Marquez prior to the press conference, and he's a very prideful young man, and you want that; deservingly so. I love his work ethic, love everything (about him). I think he's just going back to getting into that rhythm—the route-running, winning in transition, being able to create separation. His time's gonna come.
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That time, inexplicably, wasn't against Florida. North was hung out to dry a bit on a pass where he got hit pretty hard across the middle. That appeared to be the only time he was targeted.
The Vols must get North involved in the offense. He's been a major disappointment this year so far.
Justin Martin
As Antonio Callaway blazed by Tennessee defensive backs on his way to a game-winning, 63-yard touchdown, it put an exclamation mark on the Vols' puzzling secondary struggles so far this season.
After getting torched against Bowling Green, UT was much better against Oklahoma until the final quarter. Then it was deja vu all over again against Florida.
Malik Foreman has really, really struggled much of the season. Emmanuel Moseley has experienced his ups and downs.
The Vols went out and signed JUCO cornerback Martin, who was the top-rated player at his position in the recruiting class.
He was on the field on Callaway's score, just on the other side of it. Tennessee has to find a way to keep his talent on the field along with Cameron Sutton and Moseley, even if that means moving Sutton to nickel. That's the most talented group.
At this point, UT must fix the communications issues and huge cushions in the defensive backfield. Martin's athleticism can help.
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Arkansas Players to Watch
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Alex Collins
The Razorbacks haven't run the football as well as they expected to this season, being without 1,000-yard rusher Jonathan Williams.
But they still have a star in junior Collins, who has lit up the rushing totals in the past two games. The Miami native is coming off a 170-yard performance against Texas Tech, followed by a 151-yard outburst against A&M.
He's easily the best running back the Vols have faced thus far this season, and he will be only the tip of the iceberg in an October that will bring Nick Chubb to Knoxville and feature Alabama's Derrick Henry on the road.
If the Vols can't slow down Collins, they won't slow the other two, so this is a major test.
Arkansas has to get back on track, and Collins is the catalyst to get them there. If he scores a couple of touchdowns, the Razorbacks will be in good shape.
Brandon Allen
The fifth-year senior quarterback was efficient last year in a surprising turnaround season, and he's been even better this year.
He's averaging 285 passing yards a game with seven touchdowns and just three interceptions, and at times, he plays at a very high level considering his reputation as being only a "game manager."
But Allen had a critical fumble after Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett sacked him, and he's got to cut down on the mistakes at pivotal times. He also has to prove that he can consistently put his team on his shoulders and lead them down the field and to a win with the game on the line.
UT's pass defense is next-to-last in the SEC, narrowly ahead of the Razorbacks. Arkansas can use the run to set up play action, and if it has success doing it, the Hogs can be very balanced on offense.
Allen needs a big game.
Jeremiah Ledbetter
The junior defensive end isn't the big, speed-rushing edge presence that the Vols have faced this season, but he still is a very good player who can do a lot of damage.
He'll be Public Enemy No. 1 to Tennessee's offensive line.
Ledbetter is second on the Hogs in tackles with 22, and he leads the team with 3.5 tackles for a loss. When Arkansas lost to Texas Tech, the Razorbacks were really hurt when Red Raiders signal-caller Patrick Mahomes broke containment and made things happen outside of the tackle box.
Now, they've got to face Joshua Dobbs, who is at his best when he's freelancing.
They've got to put an end to that, and Ledbetter is the guy to do it.
What They're Saying
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Frustration sets in with everybody when you've lost games in the way Tennessee has gotten beaten by Oklahoma and Florida.
Sophomore safety Todd Kelly Jr. perhaps summed it best Saturday night in a tweet he later deleted. After Florida's come-from-behind, one-point victory, Kelly (who is a Tennessee legacy) tweeted: "Sick and tired of being sick and tired."
CollegeSpun.com's Andrew Holleran screen-capped it before Kelly took it down. But Kelly said nothing wrong, and it's difficult to argue with him.
Speaking of frustration, Arkansas coach Bret Bielema dealt with plenty of it following his team's third consecutive loss in an overtime setback to Texas A&M.
Though it isn't evident in the win column, Bielema told the Dallas Morning News' Randy Jennings he sees improvement in Arkansas, who looked a little more like itself against the Aggies.
"I've been at this for 10 years, and the difference is so small between winning and losing, a play or a player here and there," he said. "For all those that wanted to see us win, I'm sorry. But I know today we got better."
Tennessee coach Butch Jones tried to defend his decision not to go for two ahead 26-14 against Florida, but his answer wound up clouding his decision-making even further. According to CoachingSearch.com's Chris Vannini, after saying he was confident in UT's defense, Jones' full transcript of his decision went like this:
"(We did it for) a number of reasons. We were discussing that, prior to the drive, if we did score, whether we go for one or two. We have a chart that’s pretty standard in football that maps it out. We just felt, at that stage in the game, we have great confidence in our defense of getting off the football field, allowing them to push the ball down the field. We felt very comfortable with that decision.
It has a timeframe as well. Where we were at in the game, you get one stop, it's irrelevant. We take all that into consideration. It’s the decision that we made, and that’s the choice that we made.
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That decision he made was the wrong one, whether he wants to own up to it or not.
Prediction
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If you're a fan of either team, how can you trust them right now?
It's difficult, for sure. This is a crossroads for Tennessee and Arkansas. They stand at the intersection of Back On Track Street and Spiral Into Oblivion Avenue.
One team will take the street while the other takes the avenue.
This game is truly a tossup, which makes the spread of more than a touchdown in Tennessee's favor puzzling, even in the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium. The teams are fairly similar, and they've each shown some pretty significant warts this year.
Arkansas is a veteran team that has proved it can impose its will on teams in the past, though that hasn't been as prevalent this season. But the Vols' struggles have centered on defending the pass, not the run. So this may not be as huge of a problem for UT as it may seem.
Again, Arkansas struggles to contain quarterbacks getting to the perimeter. That's where Dobbs shines, but how honest will the Razorbacks have to be if the Vols can't throw the ball downfield?
With Georgia and Alabama coming up next on the schedule, this is an absolute must-win for the Vols and the last time they'll be favored for a while. Arkansas is about to run the SEC West gauntlet, and it already has three losses, so this is a big one for the Hogs, too.
It figures to be a close game, and if that's the case, how can either team feel comfortable? Arkansas will definitely cover, but UT has proved it's a good team, even if it hasn't yet learned to finish a game.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Arkansas 23
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