Bills at Dolphins: What's the Game Plan for Buffalo?

For the Buffalo Bills, Sunday’s matchup in Miami marks a critical early-season test.

It’s only Week 3, but the 2-0 New England Patriots are playing a weak Jacksonville Jaguars team, and the 2-0 New York Jets are playing the winless Philadelphia Eagles. If the Pats and Jets win, as expected, and Buffalo falls flat in Florida, the Bills will find themselves in a rapid two-game AFC East hole.

Given New England’s dominance of the AFC East, that’s not a comforting thought for Buffalo fans. And Miami is in the exact same situation. 

However, Buffalo fans should be confident. The team has played Andrew Luck and Tom Brady, probably the two best AFC quarterbacks, and it's facing an injury-depleted Miami team. Frankly, if the stakes weren’t so high for a third-week-of-the-season game, Buffalo fans would be confident; the Bills still have one of the NFL’s two or three most talented defenses, and Miami starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is no Luck or Brady.

Furthermore, while Buffalo’s defense struggled to contain New England’s potent offense last week, the Bills offense appears to be improving. Not only are several players recovering from injury—meaning they’ll likely continue to advance—but running back LeSean McCoy was markedly more dangerous in Week 2, despite the game’s outcome.

And quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who has performed fairly well but threw three picks against the Patriots, appears to be growing in confidence. The defense facing Taylor on Sunday is far from laughable, but it's also far from elite.

This is an important game for Buffalo to win. The Bills do not want a two-game hole in the East, and they have a rabid fan base expecting a playoff berth.

But more importantly, the team relies on a litany of players either new to Buffalo or new to the NFL. It is not unfair to say that players in new surroundings tend to perform better when they’re excited about their new team’s prospects. Despite coach Rex Ryan’s famous enthusiasm, a rapid 1-2 record would almost certainly diminish what excitement existed heading into the season. 

Offensive Game Plan

Buffalo’s loss last week against New England was a disappointing performance. And many of the team’s offensive fireworks came in the fourth quarter, when New England was presumably (and, as it turns out, mistakenly) comfortable with its 37-13 lead. 

But here’s the thing: the Bills’ Taylor-led offense really hasn’t been that terrible. Despite an entirely underwhelming start from breakout favorite Sammy Watkins, and despite six turnovers from and eight sacks on Taylor, Buffalo has averaged nearly 30 points per game.

When it comes to Taylor, Ryan has two choices this week.

On one hand, Taylor’s Week 1 strategy—short, low-risk passes, mixed with the rare long bomb—worked quite well. And his more adventurous style last week was far less effective. That suggests the team, as I wrote earlier this week, ought to return to the former game plan. 

However, on the other hand, the Bills have at least two receivers (in Watkins and Percy Harvin) who pose legitimate downfield threats. And the Miami secondary is depleted: Starting safety Louis Delmas was lost to injury, and second-year safety Walt Aikens—along with cornerback Brice McCain—was burned for several long-distance plays last week.

Watch Taylor’s 51-yard bomb to Harvin in Week 1:

That throw is markedly less risky than several Taylor made against New England and is exactly the sort of risk-reward play Ryan should call at least twice on Sunday. 

On that note, Buffalo’s offensive success this week will come down to coaching. Ryan & Co. must balance two things.

First, they must be discreet with Taylor’s downfield shots. Turnovers, as always, will be vital to the outcome of this game. 

And second, the team needs to ride McCoy. This isn’t just important for Week 3—this is important for the whole season. The reality is that Taylor, even at his best, is still not someone the team can ride to playoff success. But McCoy, when healthy, is. Miami has allowed over 140 yards rushing in both weeks, and McCoy was noticeably more dynamic in Week 2. 

Ideally, Buffalo will rely on McCoy, fellow back Karlos Williams and a stream of consistent short passes for most of the game, mixed in with the occasional shot down the sideline. 

Defensive Game Plan

Again, I wrote about this earlier in the week. Simply put, Buffalo’s defense is talented enough to beat anyone in the NFL. There are a few things that group should focus on. 

First, rushing the passer is enormously important against Tom Brady. The Bills defensive line did not do that; Brady had time in the pocket, and Buffalo was shredded.

That task gets substantially easier this week, as Tannehill is no Brady. Even the specter of constant pressure should disrupt Miami’s offensive flow, and if Marcell Dareus—suspended in Week 1—can return to form, that specter should be a constant presence. And, as the game progresses and Miami adjusts, the Buffalo D-Line should anticipate a series of shorter passes.

Second, Rishard Matthews and Jarvis Landry have emerged as Tannehill’s favorite targets. The pair was simply splendid last week, combining for 225 yards on 14 catches. And while Buffalo’s offense should aim to exploit Miami’s injury-depleted secondary, the Bills defense should expect a taste of the same medicine, as starting safety Aaron Williams will not play Sunday. Williams will be replaced by Bacarri Rambo. 

Miami’s running game, incidentally, has been pathetic. The team has 116 yards—total—in two games. Frankly, unless Lamar Miller has a breakout first half, Buffalo should trust its line to bottle up the ground attack. 

Those are the two keys to Buffalo’s defensive strategy: Pressure Tannehill, and hope the combination of Rambo and rookie Ronald Darby—who has been excellent thus far in 2015—can shut down Matthews and Landry. 

Key Matchup:

As I wrote on Thursday, the biggest thing Buffalo needs to change from Weeks 1 and 2 is penalties. The Bills are the NFL’s most penalized team and have given up over 250 free yards in two games. Buffalo should stifle Miami’s offense. But it won’t matter how many sacks or picks the Buffalo defense has, or how great Darby is in coverage, if the ‘Phins get a free first down every four or five plays.

More specifically, however, this game represents an excellent opportunity for Watkins to explode. I have always thought Watkins has the tools of a prototypical star receiver, but he’s been invisible through two weeks. Yes, he scored last week. But no, he hasn’t stretched defenses and drawn multiple coverage on a regular basis the way I expected him to. 

For Watkins, Miami’s defense is eminently exploitable. Not only is the Dolphins secondary depleted, not only is it big-play susceptible, but Watkins is simply due.

Again, I think Buffalo’s penalty problem will ultimately matter more than any individual matchup. And Buffalo should win this game regardless of any one player’s production. But a solid Watkins performance against McCain, Aikens & Co. will make Taylor’s job—along with McCoy’s—dramatically easier. 

Prediction: Bills 21, Miami 14