Ranking Each 2015 MLB Wild-Card Contender by Possible Postseason Impact
There's no question about it—the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs are the two most dangerous squads in the 2015 MLB wild-card conversation.
As the San Francisco Giants and the Kansas City Royals demonstrated a season ago, wild-card winners can make a lot of noise in October.
Like the Giants, Andrew McCutchen and the Bucs have a knack for getting big hits in big moments. Pittsburgh has also built a bullpen that rivals the dominance of the Royals' relief crew in 2014. Meanwhile, the Cubs have an ace in Jake Arrieta who's plenty capable of doing a Madison Bumgarner impression.
In the process of ranking all the wild-card contenders based on possible postseason impact, there were three key factors:
- The strength of the top of the rotation
- The strength of the bullpen
- The team's ability to get big hits in clutch moments (two outs with runners in scoring position)
As it turns out, the American League team that was ranked the highest also happens to have an airtight bullpen.
7. Minnesota Twins
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Overview
An assortment of question marks about the pitching staff keeps the Minnesota Twins anchored in the No. 7 spot in these rankings. For now, the Twins are simply focused on making it to the AL Wild Card Game, as the squad trails the Houston Astros by 1.5 games for the second spot.
The Top of the Rotation
With a 1.50 ERA in his last five outings, Ervin Santana has emerged as the ace of the Twins staff. Unfortunately for the AL Central team, the veteran right-hander is ineligible to pitch in the postseason as a result of his suspension for PED use earlier this season.
The Pen
With the group sporting a 4.02 ERA, the Twins are last in that category among the wild-card contenders ranked on this list. Not even three-time All-Star Glen Perkins has been providing much relief lately. In his last seven outings, the closer has tallied an 8.53 ERA.
The Lineup
Minnesota has enjoyed a decent amount of success in clutch situations in 2015. With runners in scoring position and two outs, the club owns a .753 OPS, which ranks No. 8 in the bigs. No Twin has played a bigger role in that production than Torii Hunter, who has clubbed six bombs with two outs and runners in scoring position.
6. Los Angeles Angels
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Overview
As was the case with the Twins, concerns surrounding the quality and availability of the Los Angeles Angels pitching staff keep the club near the bottom of these rankings. After digging through the numbers, the team's bats also provide plenty of reason for concern.
The Top of the Rotation
The Angels are clearly lacking in the ace department.
The closest pitcher that the team has to a true No. 1 starter is righty Garrett Richards. However, the 27-year-old hasn't exactly been in top form as the stretch drive ramps up, sporting a 4.47 ERA in his last seven outings.
The Pen
The Halos bullpen doesn't look like a strength with October looming.
The Angels are currently making do without the help of top setup man Joe Smith, who is sidelined with a sprained left ankle after tripping on a flight of stairs at the team hotel.
According to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, Huston Street will also be joining Smith on the shelf. As Shaikin reported, manager Mike Scioscia expects the closer to miss the rest of the regular season after sustaining a groin injury on Saturday.
The Lineup
For just about every Angel not named Mike Trout or Kole Calhoun, it's been a rough year at the plate.
Los Angeles is No. 13 in the AL in runs, and the numbers aren't any better in pressure situations. With runners in scoring position, the team is hitting .246 (No. 22). With runners in scoring position and two outs, that figure is downright ugly, plummeting to .205 (No. 26).
5. Cleveland Indians
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Overview
Staring at a three-game deficit in the race for the second wild-card spot, the Cleveland Indians still have all sorts of work to do before even making it to that one-game playoff—let alone the AL Division Series. But if Corey Kluber can get back to 100 percent health, Cleveland could prove to be a surprisingly dangerous opponent.
The Top of the Rotation
On paper, the Tribe have a nasty one-two punch in the form of Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. The teammates have both hit the 200-strikeout plateau, which marks the first time since 1967 that a pair of Cleveland starters has accomplished that feat in the same season, per the MLB Twitter account.
Unfortunately for the Indians, Kluber hasn't been his dominant self since returning from a stint on the disabled list with a hamstring injury. In his first two starts back, the right-hander has pitched four innings and 3.2 innings respectively.
The Pen
Cleveland's bullpen is sneaky good.
Closer Cody Allen, who has 32 saves in 36 tries, is one of the most underrated ninth-inning stoppers in baseball. And he's not the only Indian reliever who's been racking up zeros. As a group, Cleveland's pen has posted the third-lowest ERA (3.20) in the AL.
The Lineup
Cleveland has been flat-out lousy when it comes to batting with runners in scoring position and two outs. In that situation, the team's .199 mark is the third-lowest in the majors, and the club's .635 OPS is the sixth-worst.
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4. Houston Astros
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Overview
Even with the team slumping in September, the Houston Astros have all the pieces needed to make some noise in the postseason. One player who looks like he has the potential to become an October star is rookie shortstop Carlos Correa.
The Top of the Rotation
In Dallas Keuchel and Scott Kazmir, the Astros have a pair of lefties who are capable of anchoring the club's postseason rotation if the club gets into and past the play-in game.
Keuchel, who is one of the front-runners for the AL Cy Young Award, has been absolutely filthy at home, where he owns a 14-0 record and a 1.47 ERA. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, via ESPN Stats & Info, the starter has racked up the second-most home wins without a loss in history.
The problem for Houston is that the 27-year-old has been far less effective on the road. In 14 starts away from Minute Maid Park, Keuchel has run up a 3.82 ERA. Meanwhile, Kazmir hasn't been getting great results regardless of where he pitches. In his last seven outings, the vet is lugging around a 5.02 ERA.
The Pen
One of the primary reasons that the Astros have managed to climb into contention in 2015 is that the team's bullpen has been the best that it's been in recent memory—at least for much of the season. As a group, Houston's relievers rank No. 6 in the majors in ERA (3.25).
While the overall numbers are strong, September has not been kind to the relief corps. This month, Luke Gregerson (7.11 ERA), Pat Neshek (7.52 ERA), Will Harris (5.00 ERA) and Josh Fields (10.80 ERA) have all fallen into slumps as the Astros have tumbled in the standings.
The Lineup
If the Astros need a big hit in October, Correa is the guy who skipper A.J. Hinch will want at the plate.
This season, the 21-year-old rookie has been putting up some Barry Bonds-ish numbers with two outs and runners in scoring position. In 32 such at-bats, the right-handed hitter checks in with four jacks, a .424 average, an .848 slugging percentage and a 1.361 OPS.
3. New York Yankees
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Overview
Trailing the Toronto Blue Jays by four games in the AL East, the New York Yankees' hopes of snagging the division title are fading. But if the team can get past the AL Wild Card Game, there's no question that the club has the arms (especially in the pen) and the bats to cause problems in the AL Division Series and beyond.
The Top of the Rotation
With the postseason rapidly approaching, it remains to be seen how healthy Masahiro Tanaka is.
The starter missed his last turn in the rotation courtesy of a strained right hamstring, and the team has yet to decide when he'll return to the mound, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.
The good news for the Yankees is that Michael Pineda (3.14 ERA), Luis Severino (3.42 ERA) and even CC Sabathia (2.25 ERA) have all been stepping up over the past month.
The Pen
With Justin Wilson, Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller pitching the seventh, eighth and ninth innings, respectively, the Yankees have the potential to turn postseason games into six-inning affairs.
"It's amazing. Those guys have been so automatic this year," right-hander Adam Warren said, per Hoch. "You have a lead through six and you turn them over and it's like, 'Well, we've won.' They've been great."
The presence of Wilson, Betances and Miller will give the Yankees a ton of confidence in the postseason, as the club will know an early lead will result in a W.
The Lineup
The Yankees have made a habit of hitting key home runs in 2015.
With runners in scoring position and two outs, New York has gone yard more times (29) than any other team in baseball. The AL East club also leads the bigs in slugging percentage (.452) and is second in OPS (.795) in that situation.
2. Chicago Cubs
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Overview
With Jake Arrieta atop the rotation and a slew of young standouts populating the lineup, the Chicago Cubs have plenty of postseason potential. Ultimately, it's the club's lack of depth in the rotation that keeps Chicago from rising to the top of these rankings.
The Top of the Rotation
Arrieta has been electric in the second half of 2015, compiling a 0.86 ERA in his last 13 starts. As Buster Olney of ESPN noted, the righty has allowed just four earned runs since July.
Lost in all the Arrieta buzz is the fact that Jon Lester has also been rolling along for the Cubs. In Lester's past seven outings, the vet owns a 2.96 ERA. The problem for Chicago is that the rotation is looking dicey after those two.
Jason Hammel has been the team's No. 3 arm for much of the season, but he's recorded a 5.66 ERA in his last seven starts.
The Pen
With the team's final three starters wobbling, a lot of pressure has fallen on the bullpen. So far, the group has been up to the task. Manager Joe Maddon has been so impressed with the group that he told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times that it's possible the team could use a "bullpen day" for a postseason start.
The Lineup
It comes as no surprise that the Cubs' two best hitters—Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo—are also the team's two most productive hitters in clutch situations. With runners in scoring position and two outs, Bryant owns a 1.089 OPS, and Rizzo clocks in at 1.062.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
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Overview
It's no accident that the Pittsburgh Pirates have piled up the second-most wins in baseball. With Gerrit Cole leading the rotation, Mark Melancon dealing in the ninth and Andrew McCutchen powering the lineup, the Bucs have everything it takes to carry that success into the postseason.
The Top of the Rotation
Cole has been historically good for the Pirates in 2015. As ESPN Stats & Info noted, the right-hander recently became just the fourth Pirates pitcher since 1901 to crack the 200-strikeout plateau. The 25-year-old has been locked in as of late, reeling off a 2.56 ERA in his last seven outings.
"It's put up or shut up time," Cole told Carrie Muskat and Tom Singer of MLB.com after picking up his 18th win of the season against the Chicago Cubs on Friday. "Now's the time to get the job done."
Cole isn't the only starter who's been getting the job done. Francisco Liriano follows Cole as the No. 2 starter in the potential postseason rotation, and then there's second-half surprise J.A. Happ.
The 32-year-old left-hander wasn't exactly a blockbuster summer addition, but he's been lights-out since arriving in Pittsburgh. In his nine outings with the club, Happ owns a 2.28 ERA and a 10.2 strikeout-per-nine ratio.
The Pen
The Pirates have the nastiest bullpen in the majors.
The group has the lowest ERA (2.61) in baseball, and Melancon, Tony Watson and Jared Hughes have transformed into a three-headed monster. Hughes owns a 2.38 ERA, Watson checks in at 1.99 and Melancon leads the way at 1.95. Both Watson and Melancon have recorded more strikeouts than hits allowed in 2015.
The Lineup
This team is clutch. In 2015, the Pirates lead the Senior Circuit in OPS (.793) with runners in scoring position and two outs and check in at No. 2 in average (.270). It's only fitting that McCutchen, the team's MVP, is a monster when he steps to the plate in that situation.
In 47 at-bats, the center fielder has hit six doubles and three home runs while posting a .383 average, a .545 OBP, a .747 slugging percentage and a 1.292 OPS. Starling Marte has also been a standout, hitting .341 with a .937 OPS.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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