Are College Football's Preseason Favorites Still the Teams to Beat?

What fun would preseason projections be if no one ever played the game to find out whether they were completely wrong?

Though the 2015 college football season is only three weeks old—but turning four, thank you very much—there are already major examples of preseason predictions not going according to plan. If the media's preseason guesses came to fruition, this year's Power Five conference champions list would look like this: 

Conference	Preseason Favorite	Current Record (Conf. Record)
ACC	Clemson	3-0 (1-0)
Big Ten	Ohio State	3-0 (0-0)
Big 12	TCU	3-0 (0-0)
Pac-12	USC	2-1 (0-1)
SEC	Alabama (West Division)/Auburn (SEC)	2-1 (0-1)/ 2-1 (0-1)

(The SEC, of course, had an odd preseason voting result, with Alabama projected to win the West while Auburn was projected to win the SEC.) 

And if the College Football Playoff selection committee still valued conference champions the most, chances are the final four would feature some combination of those teams (and perhaps Notre Dame). 

With the first month of the season nearly in the rearview mirror, how does the top of college football look now? There are already examples of pundits abandoning ship on preseason favorites and going with the teams of the week: 

CBS' analysts aren't the only ones shaking up their preseason favorites, either. Here are B/R colleagues Michael Felder, Adam Kramer and Barrett Sallee making their playoff picks with some new teams joining the mix: 

But are we overreacting to what we've seen? It's a long season, and, eventually, the best teams rise to the top. Are the Power Five preseason favorites still the teams to beat in their respective conferences? Let's take a look.

ACC

The last time we saw Clemson, the Tigers were holding on to a 20-17 win against Louisville. The Cardinals, though winless, were a desperate and dangerous team. It should have been no surprise, then, that Clemson barely escaped. There were concerns with the Tigers, however. 

Namely, quarterback Deshaun Watson was just...off. He had plenty of inaccurate moments and was clearly rattled by Louisville's pressure. Compounding the problem was the absence of receiver Mike Williams. Gone by association, then, was the downfield passing game. It was not Clemson's best game offensively. 

Timothy D. Easley/Associated Press

Is Clemson still the team to beat in the ACC, though?

There are reasons to believe so and reasons to be incredulous. The silver lining is in the defense, which had to replace a number of key starters from a year ago. Though the best offense Clemson has played to date, at least statistically, is Appalachian State, it doesn't change the fact the defense has surpassed expectations. Clemson has a bye in Week 4, but its toughest tests are in the coming weeks against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. 

We'll find out just how good Clemson's defense is in those two games. 

The worrisome issue is Williams' health. As of this week, head coach Dabo Swinney still doesn't have a timeline for Williams' return. Williams suffered a neck injury in Week 1. 

"I have no idea if he'll play this year or not," Swinney said, per Nikki Hood of Tigernet.com. "In his mind, he's playing, but that is all up to the doctors and the good Lord. I have no idea, but we certainly don't want him anywhere near a football field unless he is 100 percent healed."

Assuming the offense can get back on track without Williams—no easy task, mind you—Clemson tentatively still looks like the ACC's best team. Others still agree: 

Big Ten

One month ago, even entertaining the notion that Ohio State wouldn't be the best team in the country, let along the Big Ten's best team, would have been football heresy. Yet, here we are. The Buckeyes have a quarterback controversy for all the wrong reasons and an offense that has been sluggish over the past two games. 

Are the Buckeyes still the team to beat in the Big Ten (and nationally)?

Michigan State probably has a thing or two to say about that.

Other than Ole Miss, with its win over Alabama in Week 3, no team has a signature victory quite like the Spartans have. Their 31-28 win over Oregon in East Lansing in Week 2 is as impressive as you're going to find through the early season. Thus, Michigan State shouldn't be viewed as "spoiler" to Ohio State's playoff chances; Sparty should be viewed, rather, as a legitimate Big Ten and playoff contender (if they weren't already). 

The Nov. 21 contest in Columbus still seems destined to be the game of the year in college football, especially now since the Iron Bowl between Alabama and Auburn has lost its luster. The question between now and then is whether Ohio State's offense can get back on track. 

It hasn't garnered as much attention, but it should be noted that the Buckeyes defense has played lights-out. The defense ranks near the top of the Big Ten in every major statistical category and is rated the best in college football by Football Outsiders.  

If the offense gets on board, then Ohio State quickly becomes the team to beat again. The Bucks are simply too talented to contain man-to-man. But right now, Ohio State hasn't played like the best team in the Big Ten, let alone nationally. Can it orchestrate a turnaround, or will it become the 2015 version of last year's Florida State team?

Big 12

The glaring problem for Big 12 favorite TCU is the defensive attrition. Holy moly, are the Frogs pining for bodies on that side of the ball. Dan Wolken of USA Today examines what TCU has lost on defense—which, mind you, was already replacing a number of starters from last year:

"

This development follows Saturday's win against SMU in which the Horned Frogs gave up 37 points and lost cornerback Ranthony Texada for the season. It was yet another blow to a defense which already lost defensive end James McFarland, linebacker Sammy Douglas and safety Kenny Iloka to season-ending injuries and linebacker Mike Freeze to a leave of absence. Meanwhile, TCU's most experienced defensive player, Davion Pierson, has yet to play this season at tackle due to a head injury, though he may be back soon.

"

That's not even counting the off-field issue for defensive end Mike Tuaua.  

TCU has all the offense in the world but just gave up 37 points to SMU and goes on the road to face a Texas Tech offense that's averaging 54.3 points per game—just under five points per game more than the Frogs. 

Head coach Gary Patterson is a defensive genius, so if the Frogs are to win the Big 12 and make a playoff run, it'll have to be Patterson's best coaching job yet. At some point, though, it feels like all the defensive attrition is going to catch up. If the offense has a bad day like it did against Minnesota, what happens if the defense can't make the necessary stops? 

With its win over Tennessee, Oklahoma announced itself as another contender to the Big 12 crown. Can TCU fend off Baylor and Oklahoma? The Frogs get those teams back-to-back to end the season. That's a tough task for a short-handed group. 

Pac-12

Here we have our first preseason favorite with an early-season blemish. USC's 41-31 loss to Stanford in Week 3 confirmed some of the problems the Trojans had coming into the year. Specifically, the pass rush from the defensive line was a problem. Stanford averaged 10.3 yards per pass attempt against the Trojans.

USC, for the record, averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt, meaning it was outplayed in the passing game by an offense known more for its smashmouth running style. 

Yikes. 

The Trojans defense couldn't get off the field. USC was outgained in total yards (474 to 427), gave up 8 of 12 third-down attempts and lost the possession battle nearly 2-to-1. As B/R colleague Bryan Fischer put it simply, USC was out-coached. And this doesn't look like it's anywhere close to being Stanford's best team in recent memory: 

Additionally, USC had eight penalties for 87 yards. The tendency for this team to shoot itself in the foot is a continuation of last year's problem. That's on head coach Steve Sarkisian as well. 

These are potentially bad omens for the Trojans moving forward. There are better teams than Stanford remaining on the schedule. Without a pass rush and better mental discipline, USC's offense is only going to take this team so far. 

There's time to turn things around, but right now, Oregon looks like it's still the top dog in the Pac-12. UCLA and Arizona are going to make their case this weekend in Tucson as well. 

SEC

The SEC is among the more wide-open conferences. What we know is that Auburn looks nothing like the preseason media favorite to finish atop the SEC, nor does quarterback Jeremy Johnson look like a legitimate Heisman contender. Heading into the Tigers' game against Mississippi State, Johnson has been benched in favor of backup Sean White. 

Will the move pay dividends and get Auburn's offense back on track? Something has to work because the defense, under first-year coordinator Will Muschamp, isn't proving to be a lockdown unit. Without offensive improvement, Auburn could be looking at a long season. 

With the Tigers out of the picture, where do the rest of the SEC favorites stack up? Ole Miss is the clear front-runner after beating Alabama 43-37 in Tuscaloosa. However, the Tide committed five turnovers...and still only lost by six points. Alabama doesn't control its SEC West destiny, but it's hardly out of the race. 

The idea of the Tide's dynasty under head coach Nick Saban has been a point of discussion over the last couple of years. There was no better program from 2008-12 than Alabama. But as Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports writes, "Perhaps the most relevant takeaway for Alabama is that it's no longer the clear-cut top big-game performer in the SEC, but nor is anyone else." 

That bodes well for the Tide's SEC and playoff chances this year. One loss, especially to a good Ole Miss team, doesn't end anything. The Rebels and the Tide still have to face LSU and current Heisman front-runner Leonard Fournette (per Bovada, via OddsShark.com), as well as Texas A&M. The Tigers are getting the attention, but Sallee writes that A&M shouldn't be overlooked, either. 

And then there's Georgia out of the SEC East division. Point being, there are still as many as three to five teams in the SEC that lay claim to being the best. Auburn might be out of the discussion, but Alabama isn't yet. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com unless noted otherwise.