Which Conference Will Be Left out of the 2015-16 College Football Playoff?
The selection process for the College Football Playoff is a lot like the children’s game of musical chairs. You have five or six realistic contestants (the ACC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, the Pac-12, the SEC and Notre Dame, depending on the year), circling around four highly prized chairs.
When the music stops, the College Football Playoff selection committee puts butts in seats, using a selection process rooted in teams’ resumes and overall success throughout the regular season.
The result, however, is the same: Four satisfied competitors and multiple anguished entrants left standing, left outside of the circle of success.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Until the playoff expands to eight teams, that’s the reality surrounding the process: Five major conferences, four sports. Someone’s guaranteed to get their feelings hurt, much as Baylor, TCU and the Big 12 did last December. Who will that be this December? Let’s take a look.
First, let’s explain something. While fans live, die and overreact with every September defeat (remember when the Big Ten was out of the playoff picture following Virginia Tech’s win over Ohio State last December? How’d that turn out?) the reality is that most teams have a thin margin for error when it comes to playoff qualification.
Since 2010, when the final regular-season poll featured three undefeated teams (Auburn, Oregon and TCU, then of the Mountain West Conference), the final poll has featured exactly one undefeated team entering the postseason.
In 2011, it was LSU. 2012, it was Notre Dame. And the past two years, it was Florida State. There were also no two-loss teams in the top four. A one-loss team has no guarantees, but a two-loss team might as well not even bother harboring playoff hopes.
The first 11 teams in this week’s AP Top 25, from No. 1 Ohio State to No. 11 Clemson, are all undefeated. The first one-loss team is Alabama at No. 12, followed by Oregon at No. 13. They both have “quality” losses: Alabama to No. 3 Ole Miss and Oregon to No. 2 Michigan State.
The Sagarin ratings, which measure a team and conference’s relative strength, are also interesting. This week’s top 10 features four SEC teams (Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia and LSU, in that order), two ACC teams (Florida State and Georgia Tech), one Big Ten team (Ohio State), one Big 12 team (Baylor), one Pac-12 team (Southern California) and Notre Dame.
Surprisingly, three teams in the AP Top 10 (Michigan State, TCU and UCLA) are not in the Sagarin top 10, while three one-loss teams (Alabama, Georgia Tech and Southern California are).
In other words, there’s plenty of parity amid some disconnect between actual rankings and power rankings, and that’s not even taking into consideration the shock to the system that the playoff selection committee will apply when it releases its own Top 25 rankings that actually hold sway in the selection process.
Let’s assume, for the sake of sanity, that the SEC champion will be included in the playoff. The league is college football’s deepest, with Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama establishing themselves as viable contenders. Patrick Stevens of the Washington Post says the SEC West's rise around Alabama can't be ignored. The Tide will likely be eliminated with one more defeat (and has Georgia and LSU left on its schedule).
With a win over Alabama, Georgia could enter the SEC title game unbeaten (its toughest remaining game after that will be the regular-season finale at Georgia Tech). LSU and Ole Miss face off in Oxford Nov. 21, and the Tigers travel to face the Tide Nov. 7). Upsets notwithstanding, a playoff-worthy team should emerge from this group.
In the Big Ten, there are two legit contenders: Michigan State and Ohio State. The Buckeyes and Spartans face off in Columbus Nov. 21, and the winner should be the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Ten title. There are only two Big Ten West teams in the current AP Top 25 (surprising No. 17 Northwestern and No. 22 Wisconsin), but neither is a real threat to take down the East champ in the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes or Spartans will be in the playoff.
In the Big 12, much like 2014, Baylor and TCU are the clear class of the league, although No. 16 Oklahoma and No. 24 Oklahoma State are also in the Top 25. Baylor’s visit to TCU on Black Friday appears to be for the league title and a potential playoff spot, although the Horned Frogs (who have suffered serious defensive losses) must get there unbeaten, first.
"Our key is to control our own destiny, and the best way to do that is to try to win them all," TCU coach Gary Patterson told the Associated Press. "That's what we're going to try to get done. Then we'll see how everything else falls."
A year ago, the only thing that ultimately kept the Big 12 out of the first playoff field was a 41-27 loss at West Virginia, which left both TCU (a 61-58 loser to Baylor) and the Bears with one loss.
If Baylor can survive the Big 12 round-robin gauntlet unbeaten, the Bears will make the playoff without question.
That leaves the ACC and the Pac-12, as well as Notre Dame. A year ago, Florida State was the only FBS unbeaten but was only the No. 3 playoff seed, a knock at its schedule and the ACC’s reputation. The Seminoles’ biggest wins were over a 10-win Clemson team and then an 11-win Georgia Tech team. It was enough to make the playoff, but a loss would almost certainly have eliminated them from contention.
This fall, Clemson and Florida State are the league’s best hopes. An undefeated Clemson team would have wins over FSU, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame, a trio of impressive victories. FSU’s best wins would be over Clemson and Georgia Tech, assuming the Seminoles finished the season unbeaten.
The Sagarin ratings break up leagues by divisions, and the ACC Atlantic (where Clemson and FSU reside) ranks only ninth. But is that a trustworthy system? Consider this: The Big Ten East ranks one spot behind, at No. 10.
Regardless, if Clemson or Florida State runs the table, they’ll likely earn a playoff bid.
That leaves the Pac-12, which boasts as many as three serious contenders in Oregon, Southern California and UCLA, with Arizona and Utah lurking in the weeds as Top 20 unbeatens.
Oregon has already lost a game (at Michigan State), and the Ducks can’t afford any more slip-ups with a schedule that includes trips to Arizona State and Stanford, and a Nov. 21 visit from the Trojans. Same goes from USC, which dropped a surprising defeat to Stanford. The Trojans still must travel to Arizona State, Notre Dame and Oregon, and finish the season with UCLA. It’s entirely possible they’ll absorb a loss or perhaps two along the way.
UCLA is the Pac-12’s current standard-bearer but must travel to Arizona, Stanford and Utah, and finishes the season with USC. With a true freshman quarterback in Josh Rosen, it’s hard to imagine the Bruins finishing 2015 unscathed.
The Pac-12 is a deep league, but that might not necessarily work in its favor when it comes to producing a team worthy of national acclaim.
And don’t forget about Notre Dame, which has been impressive in wins over Texas, Virginia and Georgia Tech thus far. However, the Fighting Irish are also led by a freshman quarterback in DeShone Kizer following Malik Zaire’s season-ending broken ankle. A trip to Clemson Oct. 3 and a visit from USC two weeks later leave little room for a slip-up.
Expect the Irish to make a mistake somewhere along the way, removing themselves from contention.
When the smoke clears in early December, ultimately, the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC will be represented. And Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott will lead the charge for an eight-team playoff field.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
