Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Oakland Raiders haven't won a game on the road since beating the Texans in Houston in Week 11 of the 2013 season. Since then, they're 0-11 straight up and 5-6 against the spread away from home, losing their last three road contests by an average of 35 points. Oakland plays its first road game of this season Sunday at Cleveland.

Point spread: The Browns opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.8-18.8 Browns

Why the Raiders can cover the spread

The Raiders just picked up their first victory of this season, beating the Baltimore Ravens last week 37-33, winning outright as six-point home dogs. Oakland led almost the entire game, fell down by a field goal with two minutes to go and then won it on Derek Carr's 12-yard touchdown connection with Seth Roberts with 30 seconds to go.

On the day, Carr hit on 30 of 46 throws for 351 yards and three scores against one pick, while wide receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper both caught 100 yards' worth of balls.

The victory probably came as welcome relief; last year, the Raiders didn't get their first win until Week 12.

If Carr can continue to connect with Crabtree and Cooper and get some improvement from the defense, which has given up 66 points through two games, Oakland could pull off another upset Sunday in Cleveland.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns are also coming off their first victory of this season, a 28-14 decision over the Tennessee Titans last week. Cleveland scored two minutes into the game on a Johnny Manziel-to-Travis Benjamin 60-yard hookup, scored again six minutes later and then capped off the first half with a Benjamin punt return for a touchdown.

The Titans pulled to within 21-14 with seven minutes to go, but the Browns promptly ran the ball five times for two first downs and then struck again with another Manziel-to-Benjamin score, this one a 50-yarder, to ice the victory and the cover as one-point favorites.

Cleveland ran the ball 30 times for 116 yards last week, while the defense sacked Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota seven times.

If the Browns can run the ball for 116 yards again this Sunday and sack Carr seven times, they'll probably win again.

Smart pick

Cleveland just beat Oakland 13 NFL weeks ago 23-13, and while the Raiders might be better right now than they were then, they're still an iffy betting proposition on the road. Regardless of who plays quarterback, the smart money here backs the Browns.

Betting trends

The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs in September.

The total has gone over in the Raiders’ last five games.

The Browns are 1-6 SU in their last seven games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.