NCAA Football Rankings 2015: Predicting the Top 25 After Week 4
Although Week 4 looked like a weak slate coming into Saturday, it didn't fail to deliver some thrilling games and a few eye-popping surprises that are sure to shake up the polls.
In the latest edition of #Pac12AfterDark mayhem, a potential title contender found itself on the wrong side of a devastating blowout at its home stadium. Meanwhile, another powerhouse cemented its playoff credentials with a huge win of its own, and another bounced back with a road rout.
Elsewhere, the rest of the Top 10 put away their Week 4 opponents—some more impressive than others, for sure. A certain Top-Five team had to get a miraculous catch to avoid a tough road upset. On down the rankings, several programs suffered losses that should've ensured their swift exits from the heights of the Top 25.
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In short, it was another can't-miss Saturday of college football.
As the dust settles from Week 4, here is the predicted Associated Press Top 25 poll for Week 5—which will be released later Sunday—along with the three biggest rises and falls:
| 1. Ohio State | 1 | 4-0 | Won 38-12 vs. Western Michigan |
| 2. Michigan State | 2 | 4-0 | Won 30-10 vs. Central Michigan |
| 3. Ole Miss | T-3 | 4-0 | Won 27-16 vs. Rice |
| 4. TCU | T-3 | 4-0 | Won 55-52 at Texas Tech |
| 5. Baylor | 5 | 3-0 | Won 70-17 vs. Rice |
| 6. Notre Dame | 6 | 4-0 | Won 62-27 vs. UMass |
| 7. UCLA | 9 | 4-0 | Won 56-30 at No. 16 Arizona |
| 8. Georgia | 7 | 4-0 | Won 48-6 vs. Southern |
| 9. LSU | 8 | 3-0 | Won 34-24 at Syracuse |
| 10. Utah | 18 | 4-0 | Won 62-20 at No. 13 Oregon |
| 11. Florida State | 10 | 3-0 | BYE |
| 12. Clemson | 11 | 3-0 | BYE |
| 13. Alabama | 12 | 3-1 | Won 34-0 vs. UL-Monroe |
| 14. Texas A&M | 14 | 4-0 | Won 28-21 (OT) vs. Arkansas |
| 15. Oklahoma | 15 | 3-0 | BYE |
| 16. USC | 19 | 3-1 | Won 42-14 at Arizona State |
| 17. Northwestern | 17 | 4-0 | Won 24-19 vs. Ball State |
| 18. Stanford | 21 | 3-1 | Won 42-24 at Oregon State |
| 19. Wisconsin | 22 | 3-1 | Won 28-0 vs. Hawaii |
| 20. Oklahoma State | 24 | 4-0 | Won 30-27 vs. Texas |
| 21. West Virginia | NR | 3-0 | Won 45-6 vs. Maryland |
| 22. Mississippi State | NR | 3-1 | Won 17-9 at Auburn |
| 23. California | NR | 4-0 | Won 30-24 at Washington |
| 24. Arizona | 16 | 3-1 | Lost 56-30 vs. No. 9 UCLA |
| 25. Toledo | NR | 3-0 | Won 37-7 vs. Arkansas State |
Moving up
Utah
After a pair of close wins over Michigan and Utah State to start the season and a bigger victory over Fresno State, Utah continued its undefeated start by pasting Pac-12 North favorite Oregon by an eye-popping score of 62-20—in Autzen Stadium.
The Utes took full advantage of Oregon's miscues and looked excellent in their own right by hanging 530 yards on the Ducks. Quarterback Travis Wilson had 327 all-purpose yards and five touchdowns, surprisingly leading all rushers in a game that featured Devontae Booker and Royce Freeman.
With a strong defense and an improving offense, Utah looks like it could do some real damage in the Pac-12 South, as it hosts California, Arizona State and UCLA in what looks like an increasingly favorable schedule.
Utah beating the defending national runner-up by 42 points away from home should give it a monster boost in the polls. Here, I have the Utes jumping into the Top 10 over a pair of off ACC teams that haven't had as big of wins as Utah has this year.
UCLA
After UCLA lost Myles Jack for the rest of the season to a midweek knee injury, Arizona became a trendy upset pick over the Bruins. But the Bruins jumped out to a 42-14 halftime lead and rode it all the way to a stunning 56-30 win over the Wildcats in Tucson.
UCLA put up 497 yards of total offense and forced three turnovers from an Arizona offense that couldn't keep up after quarter Anu Solomon's second-quarter injury.
"Paul Perkins can run. Josh Rosen can throw," George Schroeder of USA Today wrote. "And the Bruins have plenty of other playmakers, too. The combination was overwhelming, and it’s time to welcome the Bruins to the national picture."
With LSU struggling at times against Syracuse on Saturday and Georgia lacking a big win like this one, let's bump the Bruins up to No. 7 in the country—just behind undefeated Notre Dame, which overcame a slow start to rout UMass one week ahead of its major trip to Clemson.
West Virginia
As several teams look destined to drop out of the Top 25, a few new faces are set to join the rankings after Week 4's action. The highest-rising newcomer should be West Virginia, which routed Maryland by a score of 45-6 to improve to 3-0.
"Leading up to this week's game, [WVU head coach] Holgorsen admitted his team's 37-0 loss to Maryland in 2013 was one of the worst defeats he has ever suffered," Connor Murray of Scout wrote. "There was a gleam in his eye when he was asked if his team got a measure of revenge today. 'We rectified that in the first half,' he said with a wink."
Holgorsen might have gotten more than just revenge after his Mountaineers posted their third straight lopsided win of 2015.
West Virginia entered Week 4 as the second-best team in the "also receiving votes" category, and I expect the Mountaineers to jump one-loss Mississippi State, which didn't blow anyone away with its 17-9 win at struggling Auburn. Look for WVU to get a good ranking ahead of next week's big road game at Oklahoma.
Moving down
Oregon
Oregon's second loss of the season was a catastrophic one, as the Ducks fell by six touchdowns to a conference foe that was ranked lower than them.
The Ducks' normally potent offense completed less than 50 percent of its passes, and starter Vernon Adams was pulled for Jeff Lockie in the first half. The defense also struggled mightily, leading to a truly historic loss in Eugene.
"[Sixty-two points are] not the most points ever given up by the Ducks, thanks to 63-point nights by Nebraska and Washington decades and decades ago, but this was by far the worst pasting of recent years," Andy Hutchins of SB Nation wrote. "Once Utah crossed the 60-point plateau in the fourth quarter, the game was essentially assured of being a historic defeat, and even with a late Oregon touchdown, it stayed seismic."
Even though both of Oregon's losses so far this season are against a No. 2 team and a potential Top 10 one, losing that badly at its own stadium should be too much to keep Mark Helfrich's team in the poll.
Arizona
In what was a catastrophic Saturday evening for the entire state—Arizona State was also manhandled by USC, which should make a decent jump this week—Arizona had too many mistakes in a big loss at home to UCLA.
"You cannot beat a good team with some of the unforced errors we had today," Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez said, per ESPN.com. "They are going to force some errors, which they did, and then we had some unforced errors. You combine those things, you're not going to win."
Arizona opened the season with three straight wins over non-Power Five opponents, so there is a real danger that the Wildcats could fall out of the poll altogether.
But Solomon's early injury, the losses to ranked teams such as BYU and Missouri, and some disappointments from teams in the "also receiving votes" category might combine to keep one-loss Arizona inside the Top 25. I have the Wildcats sliding to No. 24 after an underwhelming week from the bottom tier.
Georgia Tech
The Georgia Tech option offense was on a roll for the first two games of the season, but it has fallen flat now in back-to-back weeks.
Georgia Tech fell on the road to Duke, which lost to Northwestern last weekend, after averaging just 2.9 yards per carry. That mark was one of the worst under head coach Paul Johnson, whose offenses have made Georgia Tech an ACC contender the last few seasons.
Saturday's loss to Duke—one week after a disappointing performance at Notre Dame—not only have the Yellow Jackets far away from a potential dark-horse playoff run, but it also puts them behind in the race for the ACC Coastal Division.
Georgia Tech will join BYU and Missouri this week as teams in the 20-25 range that took bad losses on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets have time to fight back into the conference-title picture, but it should be a while before we hear from them again in the polls.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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