Pittsburgh Steelers vs. St. Louis Rams Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

NFL home dogs are not only 8-5 against the spread so far this season—they're also 8-5 straight up, including the St. Louis Rams' victory over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1. St. Louis might go off as a home dog again when it hosts the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.0-26.1 Rams

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh evened its record at 1-1 last week with a 43-18 romp over the San Francisco 49ers, covering easily as a six-point home favorite. The Steelers led 8-3 midway through the second quarter and then scored three touchdowns in seven minutes to take control.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for 369 yards and three scores with just six incompletions, backup running back DeAngelo Williams punched it in on three short scoring blasts, and the Pittsburgh defense kept the 49ers out of the end zone through the first three quarters.

The Steelers opened this season with a 28-21 loss at defending Super Bowl champion New England, but they outgained and outrushed the Patriots on the night and salvaged a push on the spread as seven-point road dogs with a (very) late score.

With 464 and 453 yards of offense in its first two games, there are few teams in the league that can go toe-to-toe offensively with Pittsburgh. And St. Louis isn't one of them.

Why the Rams can cover the spread

The Rams are 1-1 both SU and ATS after suffering an almost inevitable letdown in losing 24-10 at Washington last week. St. Louis, a week after extending itself to the max in a 34-31 overtime upset of Seattle, looked a little gassed Sunday against the Redskins, falling down 17-0 before hitting the board.

The Rams got outrushed 182-67 and lost time of possession by a lopsided 38-22 margin. Unfortunately for St. Louis backers last week, and there were plenty of them, that's how you lose games and money in the NFL.

St. Louis opened this season with that victory over the defending NFC champions, tying the game on a Nick Foles-to-Lance Kendricks 37-yard-touchdown connection with less than a minute to go, winning it on a fourth-down defensive stop on Beast Mode in overtime.

When the Rams are on, they can beat almost anybody; inconsistency is their biggest problem at the moment. But if they play to recent yo-yo form, they should be up for Sunday.

Smart pick

The NFL is an up-and-down league, and the biorhythms for this matchup point toward St. Louis. The smart money here lies with the home dog.

Betting trends

The Steelers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the NFC West.

The Steelers are 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games.

The Rams are 0-4 SU in their last four games at home against the AFC North.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.