Every College Football Playoff Contender's Biggest Weakness
Three weeks into the 2015 college football season, the haves have begun to separate from the have-nots. Preseason Heisman Trophy candidates like Auburn’s Jeremy Johnson have been benched and coaches like Texas’ Charlie Strong have already stripped play-calling duties from their offensive coordinator.
But new stars like LSU tailback Leonard Fournette and Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly have emerged, and some things (like the SEC having five teams in this week’s Associated Press Top 25) remain the same. The point is, storylines are coming together, even as the first official College Football Playoff Top 25 ranking remains a distant point.
College Football Playoff contenders are starting to emerge, too, but no one is perfect. Every team has a major issue they need to address as conference play arrives. Here’s a look at the biggest issue facing the top 15 contenders (the top 15 teams in this week’s AP Top 25) as Week 4 arrives.
15. Oklahoma
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Three games into 2015, Bob Stoops’ revamp of Oklahoma’s offense looks like the right call. The Sooners’ new Air Raid system is thriving with new starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, who threw for 487 yards and four touchdowns Saturday vs. Tulsa. The Sooners are averaging 41 points per game, and their 371 passing yards per game ranks sixth nationally.
Still, there are reasons for concern. Despite the presence of standout junior cornerback Zack Sanchez, the OU secondary was lit up Saturday by Tulsa’s Dane Evans, who threw for 427 yards and four touchdowns in OU’s 52-38 win. Why the worry? The Golden Hurricane are far from the last pass-happy, wide-open offense that the Sooners will face on their schedule.
Following a bye week, West Virginia’s offense will test the secondary. So will Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State, all with more talented rosters than Tulsa’s. Last year, the Sooner defense allowed 276.2 passing yards per game, No. 117 nationally. That figure must improve for Oklahoma to make sustained noise nationally.
14. Texas A&M
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Following an 8-5 season in 2014, Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin made a bold move to shore up his team’s often lackluster defense, luring veteran defensive coordinator John Chavis away from LSU to fix the Aggies’ leaky scheme. So far, so good. A year ago, A&M ranked No. 102 nationally in total defense. Through three games, the Aggies are No. 46, allowing 337 yards per game.
A&M has a strong defensive line keyed by star ends Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, but the defense’s biggest weakness lies in the secondary, which returned two starters from a year ago (cornerback De’Vante Harris and safety Armani Watts). The passing game has been passable so far, allowing 175.3 yards per game, No. 36 nationally, and shutting down a solid Arizona State attack.
But its biggest tests are ahead in SEC play. Alabama (which shut out the Aggies 59-0 a year ago) has become pass-happy under coordinator Lane Kiffin, and Ole Miss has boasted one of the nation’s most prolific overall. A&M appears on the right track defensively, but that progress will be tested, without question, and the secondary needs to be ready.
13. Oregon
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Despite the loss of Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota to the NFL, not much has changed with Oregon’s offense. The Ducks are 2-1, with a narrow 31-28 loss at Michigan State, and are averaging 50 points per game, No. 12 nationally. Their rushing attack behind tailback Royce Freeman has been as steady as ever, too, averaging 306.3 yards per game, No. 8 nationally.
Oregon doesn’t appear to have a problem scoring points, which is a good thing, given the state of its secondary. The Ducks are allowing 316 passing yards per game, No. 118 nationally, and rank No. 108 in pass efficiency defense.
A young secondary populated almost entirely by freshmen and sophomores across the two-deep (junior safety Reggie Daniels is the only exception) is still adjusting to life without All-America cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, although corner Chris Seisay got some experience in the spotlight after Ekpre-Olomu missed the 2014 College Football Playoff following a serious knee injury.
While Oregon held Connor Cook to 192 passing yards, it yielded 318 to Georgia State and 438 to FCS foe Eastern Washington (whose best offensive player from 2014, quarterback Vernon Adams, started for the Ducks).
In the Pac-12, virtually every team (even Colorado and Washington State) can throw the ball, much less prolific passing schemes like Arizona State, Cal and Southern California. To keep hopes of a second consecutive playoff berth alive, the Duck secondary must grow up in a hurry.
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12. Alabama
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Following last week’s disappointing 43-37 loss to Ole Miss, Alabama remains in the chase for a second consecutive College Football Playoff berth, but the Crimson Tide have virtually no room for error. Alabama was sloppy against the Rebels, committing five turnovers that led to 31 points, but one of the biggest issues remains at quarterback.
A year ago, senior Blake Sims emerged and started every game, leading the Tide to an SEC title. Nick Saban and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin sorted through five quarterbacks this spring and summer, but three games in, they have yet to truly settle on one. Senior Jake Coker, who Sims beat out a year ago, started the first two games, while freshman Cooper Bateman started against Ole Miss.
Coker has thrown for 628 yards with five touchdowns against three interceptions, while Bateman has 236 yards with a touchdown against two interceptions. Coker has completed only 55.4 percent of his passes.
An underlying problem is the lack of a dominant receiver following Biletnikoff Award winner Amari Cooper’s NFL departure. Alabama’s leading receiver is tight end O.J. Howard, who has 11 catches for 175 yards. Unless more options emerge in the passing game, the Tide might be better off leaning on a power ground attack fronted by junior Derrick Henry.
11. Clemson
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Through three games, Clemson remains a College Football Playoff contender. The Tigers survived a determined Louisville team 20-17 and are off this week to prepare for a potential top-10 matchup against Notre Dame on Oct. 3.
While there were concerns about a defense that returned just two starters from the nation’s No. 1 overall unit last fall, it has been very solid thus far, allowing 11.3 points per game, No. 12 nationally. The biggest issue is keeping star sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson upright behind an inexperienced offensive line that has been less than impressive thus far.
The line was an issue entering the season: Clemson returned just one starter (senior center Ryan Norton) following senior left tackle Isaiah Battle’s summer departure due to personal issues. True freshman Mitch Hyatt has filled in capably for Battle, but the line has struggled as a whole, and Norton has been in and out of the lineup with knee issues.
Clemson ranks No. 98 nationally in red-zone offense and No. 72 in sacks allowed, two areas that can reflect an offensive line’s strength (or relative weakness). With Notre Dame and Georgia Tech visiting Death Valley back-to-back in October, the line must find its groove or Clemson will find itself out of the playoff picture.
10. Florida State
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Any impartial observer realized 2015 was going to be a year of offensive retooling for Florida State. The Seminoles returned only two starters on offense, losing Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jameis Winston, the program’s most prolific receiver ever in Rashad Greene, a talented pass-catching tight end in Nick O’ Leary and four starting offensive linemen (with left tackle Roderick Johnson the only returnee).
Three games in, the offense has unfolded like expected, which is a concern for coach Jimbo Fisher. Sophomore tailback Dalvin Cook has become a star, but new starting quarterback Everett Golson has struggled to find time to throw behind a porous line. The Seminoles rank No. 93 nationally in sacks per game allowed, yielding 2.33 sacks per game.
If the line can give Golson more time in the pocket, it could naturally help a young but talented receiver group thrive. If not, trips to Georgia Tech and Clemson in a three-game stretch spanning late October and early November will be the Noles' undoing.
9. UCLA
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We knew there would be a College Football Playoff contender this fall in Los Angeles. Following Southern California’s surprising loss to Stanford, the focus shifts to Westwood and UCLA, which survived BYU 24-23 late Saturday night.
With 17 starters returning, one of the biggest questions was at quarterback following Brett Hundley’s departure to the NFL. Five-star freshman Josh Rosen grabbed the job in the preseason and had an impressive debut against Virginia, throwing for 351 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
But he struggled against BYU, completing 11 of 23 passes for 106 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions. Through three games, he’s completing 61 percent of his passes with 680 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions.
It’s clear that Rosen is talented, and he has plenty of impressive pieces around him, led by the Pac-12’s leading returning rusher in Paul Perkins. But will he be steady enough to carry the Bruins through a tough stretch starting this week at No. 16 Arizona? We’ll find out soon enough, but his inexperience is a concern.
8. LSU
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Saturday’s 45-21 demolition of Auburn firmly established LSU as an SEC West and College Football Playoff contender, and with good reason. Sophomore tailback Leonard Fournette ran around, over and through Auburn’s defense, rushing for 228 yards and three touchdowns and vaulting himself firmly into the Heisman Trophy race.
The Tigers’ defense is solid, but the biggest question is the same as it was when the season began: Quarterback. Sophomore Brandon Harris won the job over inconsistent Anthony Jennings, and he hasn’t had to do much through two games. He’s thrown for 145 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions, completing 67.7 percent of his passes.
Maybe a caretaker is all LSU needs from its quarterback, given Fournette’s tremendous talents. But with a speedy receiver corps just waiting for a solid passer to unlock its potential, seeing Harris flash passing ability would likely make LSU fans feel much better about their SEC and College Football Playoff hopes.
7. Georgia
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As September draws toward its close, there’s not a lot to complain about at Georgia. The Bulldogs are 3-0 following last week’s 52-20 demolition of South Carolina, the defense has shown even more improvement in Jeremy Pruitt’s second season as defensive coordinator, and the offense is anchored by a Heisman Trophy contender in tailback Nick Chubb, who has 468 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 8.4 yards per carry.
With FCS foe Southern visiting this week, UGA will almost certainly be 4-0 entering Oct. 3’s huge SEC showdown against Alabama. It says a lot about the Bulldogs’ success that the biggest weakness is at quarterback.
It sounds a little silly, given that Greyson Lambert set an NCAA record by completing 24 of 25 passes against South Carolina, throwing for 330 yards and three touchdowns. But this is still the same player who was passed on the depth chart at ACC also-ran Virginia, and he completed just 11 of 21 passes for 116 yards in a win at Vanderbilt.
With plenty of talent surrounding him, Lambert will likely be just fine. But he’ll be tested in a tough October that features matchups with Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri and Florida. He still must prove himself against defenses far tougher than South Carolina for the Bulldogs to make the College Football Playoff.
6. Notre Dame
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When Everett Golson transferred to Florida State following spring practice, it solved a potentially thorny problem for coach Brian Kelly. Golson was the man who led the Fighting Irish to the 2012 national title game, but he also struggled with turnovers in the second half of a turbulent 2014 season and hadn’t wrested the job back from sophomore Malik Zaire.
Zaire made Irish fans forget all about Golson with a dominant opening-game effort in a 38-3 win over Texas, but his season ended a week later at Virginia when he suffered a broken ankle.
That thrust redshirt freshman DeShone Kizer into the starting lineup. Kizer responded in his first career start, completing 21 of 30 passes for 242 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a 30-22 win over Georgia Tech that wasn’t nearly as close as it seemed.
Despite injuries that have depleted the offense, including tailback Tarean Folston’s season-ending torn ACL, the Fighting Irish have a solid attack thanks to talented receivers like Will Fuller and Chris Brown. Kizer showed poise early on, but having the offense led by a freshman going into difficult tests against Clemson and Southern California is certainly a concern.
5. Baylor
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Despite the loss of Bryce Petty to the NFL, Baylor’s pass-happy offense is rolling right along with junior Seth Russell at quarterback. Through two games, the Bears are averaging 754 yards of total offense per game, No. 1 nationally, and 61 points per game, No. 2 nationally. Russell has 718 passing yards with nine touchdowns against four interceptions.
If Baylor has a weakness, it remains the secondary, however. A year ago, the Bears allowed 264.2 passing yards per game, No. 107 nationally. While SMU has a hurry-up, no-huddle offense with new coach Chad Morris, the Mustangs didn’t offer the tests that Baylor will see in the Big 12.
Oct. 3’s league opener against Texas Tech and quarterback Pat Mahomes will be a test. A year ago, Mahomes and the Red Raiders pushed Baylor to the wire before falling 48-46. West Virginia and TCU’s Air Raid systems also had their way with the Bears’ secondary.
Baylor returned all four starters in its secondary this fall. Whether that was a good thing or not still remains to be seen as Big 12 play looms.
4.. Ole Miss
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Ole Miss is one of the best stories of the first month of the 2015 season. The Rebels have built on a strong nine-win 2014 campaign with a 3-0 record, including a 43-37 shootout win at then-No. 2 Alabama that propelled them into the top five nationally. New starting quarterback Chad Kelly has thrown for 898 yards with nine touchdowns against one interception, completing 66.4 percent of his passes.
He throws to an excellent receiver corps led by Cody Core (12 receptions, 299 yards, three scores) Quincy Adeboyejo (10 catches, 224 yards, five scores) and Laquon Treadwell (14 receptions, 197 yards and one touchdown).
But for all their success in the air, Ole Miss has yet to find consistent success on the ground. Leading rusher Jaylen Walton has 136 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries, but 60 of those yards came on a single carry. There’s no question the Rebels have a potent passing game and a nasty defense, but it’d be nice to see the ground game carry its weight as well for a legit College Football Playoff push.
3. TCU
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Through three games, not much has changed with TCU’s offense. The Horned Frogs remain one of the nation’s most potent attacks, with senior quarterback Trevone Boykin leading the way for a unit that is averaging 49.7 points per game, which ranks No. 10 nationally. It looks every bit like a group that can lead the charge for a College Football Playoff bid, which, at 12-1, TCU fell just short of in 2014.
Even before the season began, however, defense was a concern. Gary Patterson has a reputation as one of college football’s best defensive minds, but he was replacing six starters from 2014, including his top two tacklers. It hasn’t gotten any easier from there.
Starting linebacker Mike Freeze left the team for a leave of absence. Starting safety Kenny Iloka, starting linebacker Sammy Douglas and starting defensive end James McFarland have all been lost to season-ending injuries, and starting corner Ranthony Texada joined them Saturday, per Dean Straka of TCU360.com. Meanwhile, defensive end Mike Tuaua was arrested Monday along with receiver Andre Petties-Wilson on robbery and bodily injury charges after being accused of attacking a student and stealing a case of beer, per Tim Griffin of MySanAntonio.com.
Per Dennis Dodd of CBSSports.com, Patterson isn't hitting the panic button yet.
“When I was a younger defensive coordinator, (I've had coaches say), ‘Just let them score so we can have the ball back," he said. "We're not to that point."
All together, it’s a major concern for a defense that will face off with some potent offenses like Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Baylor in Big 12 play. As TCU found out a year ago, its College Football Playoff margin for error is very thin, and the increasing lack of defensive depth won’t make matters any easier.
2. Michigan State
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Through three games, Michigan State has answered some of the most important questions that dogged it entering 2015. The Spartan offense had key holes at tailback and wide receiver, but are getting solid play in both areas. Madre London and LJ Scott are a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield, and Aaron Burbridge (20 receptions, 374 yards, four touchdowns) has been a real go-to option for senior quarterback Connor Cook.
One area where questions haven’t been answered? The secondary. It was an issue last fall, when Michigan State allowed 227.3 yards per game, No. 11 in the Big Ten. Through three games, even after facing Air Force’s flexbone offense, the Spartans are yielding 274.3 yards per game, No. 107 nationally.
That simply won’t cut it in big games like the Nov. 21 showdown against Ohio State, which could decide the Big Ten East and Big Ten titles as well as provide an inside track to a College Football Playoff berth. The Spartans have time to improve, but they must do so eventually.
1. Ohio State
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Ohio State has a quarterback situation that any team would be envious of. This summer, Urban Meyer got to choose between a dual-threat quarterback that led the Buckeyes to the brink of a national title in J.T. Barrett and the guy who took them over the top following Barrett’s broken ankle in Cardale Jones.
Those two were so talented that two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year Braxton Miller (who redshirted last season following shoulder surgery) moved to wide receiver/H-back, where he has become an impact player.
So what is the problem? As the old adage goes, when you have two quarterbacks, you have none. Jones won the job but has been uneven, throwing for 334 yards with two touchdowns against three interceptions and completing 56.5 percent of his passes. He was pulled from last week’s 20-13 win over Northern Illinois after throwing a pair of interceptions.
Meanwhile, Barrett hasn’t been a lot better, throwing for 193 yards, two touchdowns and an interception while completing 57.1 percent of his passes. The offense has sputtered without a consistent leader under center.
There’s no question that both are talented, but Meyer needs to settle on one of the quarterbacks. He plans to announce his starter against Western Michigan on Wednesday.
Let's be clear: I did go with one guy,” Meyer said Monday, per USA Today's Steven Ruiz. “The guy didn't perform well, so we went with the backup. There is no set thing saying that we're a two-quarterback system, we're not. The backup's a very good player, whomever that may be. So we are going with one guy."
Ohio State needs one of the two to take the offensive reins and build a rhythm, or risk the inconsistency turning into a season-changing upset.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
