Updated Round-by-Round MLB Playoff Predictions Heading into Final Week
We are less than two weeks away from the start of the 2015 MLB playoffs, with the AL Wild Card Game set to be played on Oct. 6 and the NL Wild Card Game slated for Oct. 7.
Anything can happen in October—as we've seen time and again—and trying to predict how the postseason will shake out is often an exercise in futility.
After all, how many people can honestly say they picked Kansas City versus San Francisco in a thrilling seven-game World Series last year?
That being said, it's still fun to try to guess the results before the postseason festivities begin, and that's exactly what we've done here.
What follows are round-by-round predictions for how the 2015 MLB playoffs will turn out, complete with both relevant regular-season statistics and wildly specific postseason predictions on both a team and individual level.
Enjoy.
AL Wild Card Game
1 of 9
The Matchup: Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
Season Series: HOU 4-3
Predicted Outcome: Astros 4, Yankees 2
While the Houston Astros and New York Yankees are both still within striking distance of their respective division titles, a Wild Card Game matchup looks like the most likely outcome at this point.
It would almost certainly be AL Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel taking the ball for Houston, as he's followed up his 2014 breakout season by going 18-8 with a 2.51 ERA and 203 strikeouts in 219 innings of work.
He's absolutely owned the Yankees in two starts against them this year, allowing just nine hits over 16 shutout innings, including a complete-game shutout back on June 25 when he allowed just six hits and struck out 12.
For the Yankees, Masahiro Tanaka would likely be the first choice to take the ball, though it's worth noting that New York scratched him from his Wednesday start with a mild hamstring strain.
He's made one start against the Astros on the year, getting touched up for seven hits and six earned runs over five innings for a no-decision on June 27.
Carlos Correa was 2-for-3 with a home run against Tanaka in their one meeting earlier this year, and the 21-year-old delivers the big blow again to send the Astros on to the American League Division Series.
NL Wild Card Game
2 of 9
The Matchup: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Season Series: CHC 10-6
Predicted Outcome: Cubs 5, Pirates 0
The Pittsburgh Pirates have played in the Wild Card Game the past two seasons and appear to be headed for the win-or-go-home game once again this year, where they will square off against the Chicago Cubs.
The Pirates currently hold a three-game lead in the standings, but the two teams have one more three-game series left head-to-head. Just last week, the Cubs took three of four in Pittsburgh, and with the way the two teams have played overall of late, get ready for playoff baseball at Wrigley Field.
Jake Arrieta is lined up to start the Wild Card Game for the Cubs, according to Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. With the way he's pitched this season and particularly of late, it's the right decision.
Arrieta is 20-6 with a 1.88 ERA, 0.903 WHIP and 220 strikeouts in 216 innings on the year, and that includes a current stretch of 18 consecutive quality starts where he's gone 14-1 with a 0.94 ERA.
In four starts against the Pirates on the year, he's gone 2-1 with a 0.93 ERA in 29 innings of work.
For the Pirates, emerging ace Gerrit Cole is in line for the start, and he's earned it at 17-8 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.103 WHIP and 192 strikeouts in 194 innings.
Cole is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts against the Cubs, and he'll see them one more time before the end of the year with a scheduled start against Chicago on Friday. Arrieta will pitch the series finale Sunday.
Another gem from Arrieta puts the Cubs in the National League Division Series, while the Pirates are shut out in the Wild Card Game for the second consecutive season.
ALDS
3 of 9
The Matchup: (WC) Houston Astros vs. (1) Toronto Blue Jays
Season Series: HOU 4-3
Predicted Outcome: Blue Jays in 4
The Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays met up seven times during the regular season, with the Astros sweeping a four-game series at home in May and the Blue Jays taking all three games in Toronto in early June.
With that said, these are two significantly different teams than the ones that took the field back in the first half, especially on the pitching side of things.
Roberto Hernandez and Brett Oberholtzer combined to start three of those games for the Astros, while the Blue Jays were without both David Price and Marcus Stroman.
The Astros would have to burn ace Dallas Keuchel in the Wild Card Game, meaning it would likely be Scott Kazmir and Collin McHugh squaring off against Price and Stroman to kick off the series.
That would give the Blue Jays a great opportunity to jump out to a 2-0 lead at home, where they are 50-28 on the year. Add to that the fact the Astros are just 29-46 on the road, and a big series lead for the Jays heading to Houston seems likely.
From there, expect the Astros to turn to Keuchel on short rest for Game 3, where they manage to avoid the sweep against veteran Mark Buehrle.
Marco Estrada draws the Game 4 start over knuckleballer R.A. Dickey for the Jays, and he puts the series away with a strong start opposite Astros deadline acquisition Mike Fiers.
Josh Donaldson puts his previous postseason struggles (43 AB, .538 OPS, 1 XBH) in the rearview mirror with a big series at the plate, kicking off a huge playoff performance.
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ALDS
4 of 9
The Matchup: (3) Texas Rangers vs. (2) Kansas City Royals
Season Series: TEX 4-3
Predicted Outcome: Rangers in 5
While the Kansas City Royals currently hold a 1.5-game lead for the No. 1 seed in the AL, they have gone just 8-13 in the month of September and will have their hands full holding off the Toronto Blue Jays for the right to face the Wild Card Game winner.
Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers have stormed back into contention since the trade deadline with a 32-17 record, and they have passed the Houston Astros for the AL West lead in the process.
The Rangers took the season series with the likes of Chi Chi Gonzalez, Ross Detwiler, Nick Martinez and Wandy Rodriguez starting four of those games. With Derek Holland and Martin Perez now healthy and Cole Hamels added to the mix, it's fair to say the Rangers now hold a significant edge in the starting pitching department.
On the other side, Johnny Cueto and Yordano Ventura will likely get the nod to start the first two games, but the team will have a decision to make from there between Edinson Volquez, Kris Medlen and Danny Duffy.
The Rangers have been one of the best road teams in baseball at 43-34, while the Royals have been solid as well at 39-35, so neither team holds much of a home-field advantage.
A red-hot Rangers team will be tough to slow down, but as the Royals showed last postseason, a stellar defense, dangerous speed and a lights-out bullpen can go a long way in October.
We'll say the two teams trade wins through the first four games, and it comes down to a battle of the trade-deadline pickups for Game 5 when Hamels and Cueto square off for the second time.
After Cueto came out on top in Game 1, Hamels gets some redemption in Game 5 with a gem to lead the Rangers to the ALCS.
NLDS
5 of 9
The Matchup: (WC) Chicago Cubs vs. (1) St. Louis Cardinals
Season Series: STL 11-8
Predicted Outcome: Cubs in 5
Many intriguing potential matchups are on tap this October, but it's hard to top a Division Series meeting of NL Central rivals Chicago and St. Louis.
The Cardinals took the season series 11-8, but the Cubs have been better in the second half as they took the final two series and went 6-4 in their final 10 meetings.
The Cardinals rotation has been great this season, as St. Louis has gotten an MLB-best 2.99 ERA out of its starters. The Cubs aren't far behind with a 3.52 ERA from their rotation.
John Lackey (21.2 IP, 1.25 ERA) has dominated the Cubs, but Carlos Martinez (22.1 IP, 5.24 ERA), Michael Wacha (21.0 IP, 6.86 ERA) and Lance Lynn (17.2 IP, 7.64 ERA) have all struggled against the North Siders.
Meanwhile, Jon Lester (31.1 IP, 2.59 ERA) and Jake Arrieta (26.0 IP, 2.42 ERA) have been brilliant against the Cardinals, though Jason Hammel (11.0 IP, 5.73 ERA) has struggled.
The Cubs will enter the series at a disadvantage having been forced to throw Arrieta in the Wild Card Game, and the big question will be whether another starter can step up behind their dynamic one-two punch.
While the Cardinals still have the best record in baseball, no NL team has been better than the Cubs since Aug. 1, as they've gone 34-16 and clearly taken the leap from surprise contender to legitimate threat to win it all.
The two teams have never met in the postseason, and it's hard to imagine this series not going five games if it does in fact come to fruition.
Lester proves to be worth the $155 million investment the Cubs made in the offseason, backing up his terrific postseason resume with a pair of wins, including a dominant start in the decisive Game 5.
NLDS
6 of 9
The Matchup: (3) New York Mets vs. (2) Los Angeles Dodgers
Season Series: NYM 4-3
Predicted Outcome: Mets in 4
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets have both been in firm control of their respective divisions for most of the second half, and with the St. Louis Cardinals holding the best record in the league, they have been on a collision course for some time now.
With Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw on one side and Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom on the other, four of the best pitchers in the NL would be going head-to-head in the first two games of the series.
The big advantage for the Mets kicks in after that, when they can turn to Noah Syndergaard, Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese or Steven Matz to fill out the rest of their postseason rotation, while the Dodgers will counter with lefties Brett Anderson and Alex Wood.
All six of the current Mets starters have faced the Dodgers this year, and all of them fared well outside of Niese (3 IP, 8 H, 6 ER), so the team has options.
As you would expect, Greinke (14.0 IP, 1.29 ERA) and Kershaw (16.0 IP, 0.56 ERA) both pitched well in two starts each against the Mets, while Wood (13.0 IP, 4.85 ERA) struggled in two starts against them back when he was still with the Braves.
Both teams have been mediocre on the road this year—the Dodgers (35-39) faring slightly worse than the Mets (37-37)—so stealing a game on the road could be a difference-maker.
The 27-year-old deGrom proves to be the X-factor when he wins his start at Dodger Stadium, and the Mets flex their pitching muscles from there to put the series away at Citi Field.
ALCS
7 of 9
The Matchup: (3) Texas Rangers vs. (1) Toronto Blue Jays
Season Series: TOR 4-2
Predicted Outcome: Blue Jays in 6
At the trade deadline, the Toronto Blue Jays were in third place in the AL East and just two games over .500 on the year at 53-51.
The Texas Rangers were in even worse shape sitting at 50-52 overall in third place in the AL West race, but both teams have undergone a drastic transformation in the roughly two months since.
At 34-14, the Blue Jays have been the best team in baseball since Aug. 1, and the Rangers haven't been far behind at 32-17.
As far as the head-to-head meetings go, the Blue Jays took two of three at home in May and again took two of three on the road in late August.
One player to watch in this matchup is Yovani Gallardo, who went 2-0 and allowed just six hits in 13.2 scoreless innings in his two starts against the Blue Jays this year. Not many pitchers have been able to slow down that potent offense for one start, let alone two.
With that in mind, the Rangers manage to even the series in Game 2 behind another strong outing from Gallardo, after Price gives the Blue Jays an early series lead with the Game 1 victory, and the series heads to Toronto all knotted up.
Hamels continues to add to his impressive postseason resume with a big win for the Rangers in Game 3, but the Blue Jays offense kicks into high gear from there, and they take the next three to close out the series and win the AL pennant.
Donaldson follows up his big ALDS performance with an even better ALCS, proving why he'll be a deserving AL MVP winner—but first adding an ALCS MVP to his resume.
NLCS
8 of 9
The Matchup: (WC) Chicago Cubs vs. (2) New York Mets
Season Series: CHC 7-0
Predicted Outcome: Mets in 6
The New York Mets have not fared well against the NL Central this season, going a combined 9-20, including 3-17 against the three contending teams and specifically 0-7 against the Chicago Cubs.
All four of the Cubs' projected postseason starters pitched incredibly well in their six combined starts against the Mets, going 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.814 WHIP.
Mets starters, on the other hand, struggled, with deGrom (10.1 IP, 6.10 ERA) and Syndergaard (5.1 IP, 5.06 ERA) in particular getting hit hard.
However, it's worth mentioning that Syndergaard was making his big league debut in his lone start, and both Harvey and Colon threw seven scoreless innings in their starts before the bullpen coughed up the lead.
The Cubs bullpen was the real star in those earlier meetings, throwing a combined 16.2 scoreless innings and nailing down all three save chances.
Similar to their series with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Mets' starting pitching depth once again proves to be the difference. Arrieta and Lester give the Cubs a pair of aces, but the Mets can go six deep with quality starters.
After an emotionally draining series against the rival St. Louis Cardinals, the Cubs suffer a letdown and drop the first two games of the series at Citi Field.
They bounce back to even the series at home, though, behind yet another terrific start from Lester in Game 3 and an offensive explosion in Game 4 against Colon.
The Mets are able regain control of the series in Game 5 with an offensive outburst of their own, and deGrom puts his regular-season struggles behind him and closes out the series with a brilliant start in Game 6.
DeGrom takes home NLCS MVP honors with a pair of wins, and the Cubs fall just short of reaching the World Series in their first postseason appearance since 2008.
World Series
9 of 9
The Matchup: (2) New York Mets vs. (1) Toronto Blue Jays
Season Series: 2-2
Predicted Outcome: Blue Jays in 7
On the surface, a New York Mets-Toronto Blue Jays matchup in the World Series would look like the classic pitching versus offense showdown.
However, the Mets have had one of the best offenses in baseball since acquiring Cespedes, and the Blue Jays have completely transformed their pitching staff with the addition of Price and a healthy Stroman, so that's not exactly a fair assessment of both teams at this point.
Their only regular-season matchup came in June when they played a home/away four-game series, and both teams won their two games at home.
For the Mets, Harvey threw seven scoreless innings in his start, and Syndergaard struck out 11 Blue Jays hitters and allowed just two hits in six innings of work. However, the Blue Jays shelled Colon for nine hits and seven runs in just 4.1 innings.
Buehrle and Dickey both pitched well in their starts, while the since-demoted Drew Hutchison and Scott Copeland started the other two games for the Blue Jays.
The beginning of the series plays out identically to their regular-season matchup, as the Blue Jays take the first two games at home, but the Mets even the series at 2-2 when things head back to Citi Field.
Price comes through once again with a gem in Game 5 to put the Blue Jays back on top, but the Mets refuse to roll over, taking Game 6 when they quickly silence the Rogers Centre crowd with a huge first inning offensively.
With a World Series title within reach and a big payday awaiting in the offseason, Price proves to be the hero this October as he starts Game 7 on just two days of rest and picks up his third win of the series.
The Blue Jays take home their first World Series title since winning back-to-back in 1992 and 1993, and Price is left with a tough decision this offseason on whether to return to the Blue Jays or ride off into the sunset as a franchise hero.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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